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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Weather Talk is a monthly subscription texting (and more) service. Supporting this helps cover the daily costs (average monthly costs are $700+) or all of the data, my time, and the Shadow Angel Foundation. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones. You can sign up and opt out of the text messages, as well.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. These are updated twice weekly.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
Winter storm outlook has been posted. Updated Friday, December 23, 2016
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening. Rain will end from west to east through the evening and overnight hours. Chilly temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning before 9 pm. Evening strong storms possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill: 35
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: A band of showers over our region early in the night. Precipitation will end from west to east.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? After 8 pm no. Before 8 pm a few strong storms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Monitor radars to see how far east the band of rain has moved.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:34 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:10 p.m. Waning Crescent
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December 27, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and mild.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:52 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Tuesday Night: Clear. Perhaps some increase in clouds after midnight. Cool temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Northwest at 0-5 mph becoming south and southeast at 0-6 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:52 p.m. Waning Crescent
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December 28, 2016
Wednesday: Increasingly cloudy. Perhaps a few showers during the late morning and afternoon hours. This will mainly be over the southern half of the region. Draw a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri to Vienna, Illinois and then to Madisonville, Kentucky. From there southward. North of that line there might be some showers, but less coverage.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48 to 54 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there should be some showers in the region. Check radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 6:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:35 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Evening showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways before 8 pm
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill: 30
Winds: Becoming west and northwest at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered before 9 pm. Low confidence.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
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December 29, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Seasonably cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 7:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:29 p.m. New Moon
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Thursday Night: Clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 20’s
Wind Chill: 28
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 30, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 7:55 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:23 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Perhaps increasing clouds after midnight.
What impact is expected? Patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s
Wind Chill: 28
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 31, 2016
Saturday: Increasing clouds. Rain showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 8:39 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:21 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 30’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would encourage you to monitor updates. Rain is a possibility. Low confidence.
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January 1, 2016
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: South at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but low confidence.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:49 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 9:20 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:20 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest at 10 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Rain chances ending from west to east on Monday evening
- Monitoring another precipitation event for Wednesday (rain)
- Weekend outlook
- Contest winners
- Shadow Angel Foundation announcement
Happy holidays, everyone. I hope you and your family are having a nice week.
In case you missed the announcement! We have added a new charity to the list of charities that we support/work with.
Click image to enlarge
Also, did you win anything in the BIG contest giveaway? CLICK HERE (see if you won something)
Thank you, everyone for entering. I will have more contests soon. Monitor updates!
Forecast Analysis:
Gusty winds moved into the region on Sunday night and Monday morning. Winds gusted over 45 mph in some locations. Wind damage was reported in Calloway County, Kentucky. At least one mobile home had damage. Several areas also had tree limbs down.
The gusty winds were caused by the tight pressure gradient from a deep area of low pressure in the Dakota’s and Minnesota. That low was responsible for an ice storm and blizzard conditions across the above mentioned areas.
This system pulled warm and moist air northward, from the Gulf of Mexico, into our region. Saturday night and Sunday morning delivered thick fog for portions of the area. Then, temperatures soared into the 60’s on Christmas Day across much of the region. Temperatures over our northern counties remained in the 50’s with thick fog (they were north of the warm front).
Just look at these amazing temperatures earlier Monday morning. Certainly not going to snow at these temperatures.
December 26, 2016 Temperatures
How many degrees above normal were Monday’s temperatures? Twenty to thirty degrees (and more).
The rain will end on Monday night. The front will push through the region and temperatures will be a bit cooler on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Nothing dramatic.
Another system will approach our region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is a lot of disagreement about how far north to push precipitation chances. For now, the southern half of the region stands the best chance for measurable rainfall. A few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.
The southern half would include areas from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Metropolis, Illinois and then towards Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Along and southeast of that line has the best chance for rain. See graphics, below.
Areas north and west of that line will have rain chances, as well. The rain chances won’t be as high as areas further south.
Let me show you the NAM model guidance and how it depicts Wednesday’s rain potential.
Again, confidence is fairly low as to how much rain will move into our local area. It is possible that most of it remains to our south and east.
These are future-cast radar images.
This first image is for 12 pm on Wednesday. You can see a few showers in the area. The rain will move in from the south and west.
This next image is for 3 pm on Wednesday
This next image is for 9 pm on Wednesday
Computer models differ on rainfall totals.
This is the GFS model. These are Wednesday/Wednesday night rainfall totals.
Notice how the GFS has most of the rain to our south and east. This will need to be monitored.
It is possible that much of the area misses out on measurable rainfall.
Let’s take a look at the higher resolution NAM guidance. These are rainfall totals for the same time period
The NAM is further north. Totals, at this time, are not all that impressive.
Holiday Weekend Weather:
As we move into the New Year’s weekend, we might have to deal with more rain. Plan on some showers in the area on Saturday or Sunday. Still need to work out the details.
Have a wonderful holiday weekend.
To view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button. Then, follow the directions.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
This is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast map.
Rain is likely Monday afternoon and night.
Another chance for rain on Wednesday. Another chance for rain this coming weekend.
This first map is for Monday afternoon and night (keep in mind some of this rain will have ended by the time you view these maps)
North and south views
Where training storms occur you can pick up twice as much rain (or more) than is shown on these graphics.
These next two maps are for the Wednesday rain event. Low confidence on how far north the rain spread. Let’s monitor trends.
These next two maps are for the Saturday and Sunday rain chances. Several days to monitor this part of the forecast, as well.
High and Low Temperature Outlook
Tuesday morning low temperatures.
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Tuesday afternoon high temperatures
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Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon high temperatures
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..Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday afternoon and evening: A small risk for a few severe thunderstorms. This would mainly be over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Perhaps the Missouri Bootheel, as well. Damaging wind is the main concern and an isolated tornado risk.
Tuesday through Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Lightning is the main concern. Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated the entire blog
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Monday evening storms is the main concern.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
