Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 24, 2017: Tracking snow chances.

Short update today and Christmas.  Holiday update.

I will be spending time with family over the next two days.  Updates will be brief.

We do have snow in the area today (mainly northern counties).

Click the winterize button on the city-view live radars.  That will show you the lighter snow echoes.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

I am tracking multiple snow chances over the coming 14 days.  Winter has arrived.  Cold weather, as well.

The probabilities will be adjusted as each event comes into view.  The probability numbers will never be all that high days in advance of an event.  Winter storms are difficult to forecast a day or two in advance, let alone a week in advance.

The Monday night/Tuesday morning event will remain low confidence.  This is a weak system and unlikely to produce much in the way of precipitation.  Scattered flurries or snow showers are possible.

I will monitor trends and adjust if necessary.

A larger event is possible later this weekend and this coming weekend.  Monitor updates.  Confidence in these two events remains low.

Here are my current snow probability numbers.
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Today’s event is mostly across our northern counties.

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Monitor updates through the week.  We do have a decent chance of wintry precipitation between now and the first few days of January.

December 24, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy with patchy fog.  Becoming breezy.  A chance for light snow or snow/rain mix.  Best chance of all snow would be northern counties of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  See graphics above.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38      IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps a period of widespread precipitation (esp northern counties of the area)
Wind chill values: Teens and 20’s
Accumulating snow or ice:  A chance for an inch or less across northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois (see graphics above for county forecast).
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 20 mph possible
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Small chance of snow sticking to bridges and roads over our far northern counties.  Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.  It will be cold and there might be some light precipitation.

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing overnight.  Colder.  Breezy early.  A snow or rain shower possible before 7 pm.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 16 to 24      IL ~ 16 to 24       KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated (early)
Wind chill values: 8 to 16
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 25, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Some morning sun.  Increasing clouds during the day.  Cold.  Flurries possible late in the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 30 to 35     IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind chill values: Upper teens to upper 20’s
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Cold.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  I can’t rule out accumulation, but confidence is low to medium.  Not a slam dunk forecast.  A weak system could produce enough lift for snow showers to develop.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 20 to 25      IL ~ 20 to 25       KY ~ 22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Wind chill values: 15 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  There is a chance of accumulation.  Confidence is low to medium.
Winds
: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Monitoring light snow chances.  Slick roadways possible if the snow does develop.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Low to medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No, but monitor radars in case snow develops.

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December 26, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  A few flurries or snow showers possible during the morning.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 38      IL ~ 32 to 38      KY ~ 32 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered before 7 am
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Late Monday night/Tuesday morning it is possible that we have light accumulation.  There remain questions as to whether there will be snow.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor updates on snow.  It would be cold enough for snow to stick to roadways late Monday night/Tuesday morning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  A flurry possible.  Bitterly cold.  Low wind chills.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 13 to 16      IL ~ 13 to 16      KY ~ 14 to 18
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Wind chill values: 0 to 10 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  No 
Winds
: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 27, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to  mostly sunny.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 24 to 28      IL ~ 24 to 28      KY ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind chill values: Teens
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Cold.  Low wind chills.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 15 to 20      IL ~ 15 to 20      KY ~ 16 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Wind chill values: -5 to 10 above
Accumulating snow or ice:  Unlikely
Winds
: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Low wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 28, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy. A  chance of snow or wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  Cold wind chills.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32      IL ~ 26 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind chill values: -5 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice: Possible
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Icy roads if snow develops.  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Snow, sleet, and freezing drizzle possible.  Low wind chills.  Low temperatures will depend on snow cover.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 16 to 22      IL ~ 16 to 22      KY ~ 16 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Wind chill values: -5 to 15
Accumulating snow or ice:  Possible
Winds
: Northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Icy roads if snow develops.  Low wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

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December 29, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy in the morning.  Snow showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 30 to 35      IL ~ 30 to 35      KY ~ 30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cold.   Flurries possible. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 16 to 22      IL ~ 16 to 22      KY ~ 16 to 22
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Wind chill values: 8 to 16 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Monitor updates.  Cold wind chills.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 30, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32      IL ~ 26 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor updates
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: Northeast and east at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy with snow possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 15 to 20      IL ~ 15 to 20       KY ~ 15 to 20
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Monitor updates
Wind chill values: 15 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds
: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

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December 31, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Snow or wintry mix possible.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 26 to 32      IL ~ 26 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Wind chill values: 15 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice: Monitor updates
Winds: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy with snow or wintry mix possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 20 to 25      IL ~ 20 to 25       KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Monitor updates
Wind chill values: 10 to 20 degrees
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds
: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Monitor updates

 

 

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

 

 

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