Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 22 and 23, 2017: Active weather.

12 PM Update on snow

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December 22, 2017

LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS
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Your daily forecast into the coming weekend.
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December 22, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers increasing through the day.  Falling temperatures behind a cold front that will slowly push west to east.  Temperatures will fall into the 40’s over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  High temperatures will be during the morning hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 58      IL ~ 52 to 56      KY ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.  Rain coverage will increase from the south and southwest as we move through the day.
Wind chill values: N/A
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12.  Winds becoming west and northwest behind the cold front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Rain likely.  Locally heavy rain possible, especially over the Missouri Bootheel, west TN and west KY. Rain may mix with or change to a rain/snow mix or wet snow over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Perhaps western Kentucky, as well.  Confidence remains low on the snow portion of the forecast.  Turning colder.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 32 to 36      IL ~ 32 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 80%    KY ~ 90% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  Widespread
Wind chill values: 20 to 30
Accumulating snow or ice:  Unlikely.   A small risk over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  It would be a rain/snow mix or wet snowflakes.
Winds
: Becoming north and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Wet roadways.  Where the heaviest rain occurs you could have water over roadways.  Low end flash flood risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? Unlikely, but heavy rain is a possibility
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: Have a plan B

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December 23, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain/snow mix or a period of snow showers possible (mainly during the morning).  Precipitation ending west to east.  A burst of heavy wet snow is possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois/northwest Kentucky.  Slushy snow accumulation possible over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 42      IL ~ 36 to 42      KY ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread during the morning.  Decreasing coverage through the afternoon.
Wind chill values: 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice: A chance of accumulating snow on grassy surfaces (SE MO int south IL and NW KY)
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Colder.  Flurries possible.  
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 24 to 28      IL ~ 22 to 26       KY ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Most of the precipitation should have ended.  Small flurry chances.
Wind chill values: 20 to 25
Accumulating snow or ice:  No
Winds
: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 24, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Rain/snow or snow showers possible.  Greatest chance will be over extreme northern portions of southeast Missouri and extreme northern portions of southern Illinois.  Chances decrease rapidly as you move southward.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38      IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Low confidence for scattered rain/snow or snow showers.
Wind chill values: 20’s
Accumulating snow or ice: Odds are low.
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Monitor updated forecasts.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy the first half of the night.  Clearing overnight.  Colder. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 16 to 22      IL ~ 16 to 22       KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none
Wind chill values: 10 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  Most likely no
Winds
: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: Medium
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 25, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.  Flurries possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 35 to 40      IL ~ 32 to 38      KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none to isolated
Wind chill values: Upper teens to upper 20’s
Accumulating snow or ice: Unlikely
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? It will be cold

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A period of clouds.  Flurries possible.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 22 to 26      IL ~ 22 to 26       KY ~ 22 to 26
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated
Wind chill values: 15 to 20
Accumulating snow or ice:  No 
Winds
: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: It will be quite cold

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December 26, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 35 to 40      IL ~ 34 to 38      KY ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind chill values: 20;s and 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy and cold.
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 18 to 24      IL ~ 18 to 24      KY ~ 20 to 25
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0% 
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated
Wind chill values: 20’s and 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice:  No 
Winds
: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  None anticipated
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

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December 27, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Cold.  I will be monitoring precipitation chances.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~ 32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none, but monitor
Wind chill values: 20’s and 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice: No
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  I will be monitoring precipitation chances. 
Temperatures
:    MO ~ 24 to 28      IL ~ 24 to 28      KY ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Monitor updates
Wind chill values: 20’s and 30’s
Accumulating snow or ice:  Monitor updates
Winds
: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
?  Monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: LOW
Is severe weather expected
? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans
: No

 

Forecast

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

Friday into Saturday

A cold front will push through the region today.

Temperatures will fall behind the front.

Here is the 12 PM, 3 PM, and 6 PM temperature forecast map.  Notice the colder air spreading in from the northwest.

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Our much anticipated rain maker is spreading into the region from the south and southwest.

Locally heavy rain will be possible later today into tonight and early Saturday morning.  Some locations from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee could exceed three inches of rain.

Here is the WPC rainfall forecast

Click to enlarge
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Here is my rainfall forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky
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Here is my rainfall forecast for the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee
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A flash flood watch has been issued through Saturday morning (9 AM).  This means that a few locations could experience water over roadways.
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Areas in bright green are included in the flash flood watch.

Click to enlarge the image.  The watch covers the Missouri Bootheel and the KY/TN border counties.
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Widespread rain is anticipated as we move into this afternoon and especially tonight into early Saturday morning.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.  The heaviest rain will arrive tonight into early Saturday morning.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.

Notice the blue.  The rain may chance to snow.  That or a rain/snow mix.  There is only a small risk of accumulation.
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The rain may briefly change to snow as the storm system pulls away.  This would most likely occur across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The risk of accumulation is not zero, but it isn’t all that great, either.  Perhaps on grassy surfaces.

Precipitation should come to an end during Saturday afternoon.  Saturday night will be dry.

Here is the NAM and GFS model guidance.  These are snow totals.  Both models attempt to produce some accumulation on grassy surfaces.

It would have to be heavy in order to stick.
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It will be quite a bit cooler on Saturday with highs only in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.  Lows Saturday night will dip into the 20’s.

Saturday 12 PM temperatures
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Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

This map pretty much sums up my thinking on the white Christmas chances.  It remains a long shot.  Not a zero chance, but a low chance.

This is the % chance of 1″ or more of snow.  This is from the EC guidance.

Notice the odds increase as you travel north.
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I am tracking a system  on Sunday.  The system could spread a rain/snow mix or snow into some of our local counties.  The best chance would be over our far northern portions of southeast Missouri, far northern counties in southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  Even there, it is a long shot.

Better snow chances as you move into central Illinois and central Indiana.

Here is the official WPC/NOAA precipitation forecast for the Sunday event.

Light grey colors.  Light precipitation.

Taken at face value, these colors represent less than 0.10″ of precipitation.  That would mean one inch or less of snow.
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The GFS is slightly further south with the system.  Could there be a surprise?  Small chance.
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Tuesday through Friday of next week

I am tracking a system towards the middle of next week.  This could bring precipitation into our region.  There remain questions on the eventual track and intensity of the system.

If the track is too far north then we will have mostly rain.

Here are what some of the early model runs are showing.

GFS model guidance

This is for Thursday.  You can see some precipitation in our area.  The GFS has a wintry mix.

Blue is snow.  Pink is sleet.  Green would be rain.
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GEM/Canadian model guidance

This is Thursday afternoon.  The GEM model guidance is dry.  The models keep going back and forth on this idea of precipitation towards the middle of next week.

Way too soon to know specifics.  At this point, it is something I am watching.
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European/EC model guidance

The EC is showing snow to our north on Thursday.

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This system will need to be monitored.

Beau’s Winter Weather Outlook

It is important to remember that this pattern is fluid.  There is always going to be lower than normal confidence, during the winter months, for the forecast past day three or four.
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Here are my latest snow probability maps for the week ahead.

Breaking it down between snow and ice.
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These have been updated with the latest data.

These graphics show you the % chance of one inch or more of snow and/or accumulating sleet and freezing rain.

I do not anticipate winter weather through Friday evening.  I am monitoring Friday night and Saturday for a late night change to rain/snow mix of snow. This would occur as the rain system is pulling away.  Accumulation appears unlikely.

Here is the Missouri and Illinois forecast
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Here is the Kentucky and Tennessee forecast
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Christmas week.  Model guidance shows an active pattern that could mean multiple precipitation events.  Monitor updates moving forward.  Confidence is low (it is in the long range).

Keep in mind, I rarely go above 10% chances past day five.  That means 10% is a max number for days six through ten.  

Let’s keep an eye on the middle/end of next week for another system.  Whether we end up on the warm side of that system is questionable.  Odds favor at least some wintry precipitation.

This graphic is for the entire area.
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The pattern remains favorable for wintry weather.  The question is going to be storm track and the placement of a boundary in or near our region..

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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Live lightning data ~ click here

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We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared.  You may also try restarting your browser.  This will usually fix any problems.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

 

 

 

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