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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
Winter storm outlook has been posted. Updated Monday, December 19, 2016
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Also, big announcement on Christmas Day!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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December 20, 2016
Tuesday Night: A few clouds. Patchy fog or freezing fog possible. Not as cold as recent nights. Freezing fog can cause slick spots.
What impact is expected? Fog. Perhaps freezing fog. Freezing fog can cause slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 18 to 24 degree range. Temperatures will vary considerably on Wednesday morning.
Wind Chill: 15-20 degree range
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing fog possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:51 a.m. Last Quarter
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December 21, 2016
Wednesday: Morning freezing fog possible. A period of clouds as a weak cold front passes through the area. Otherwise, sunny. Front should move through dry. Cold with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Watch out for morning fog, perhaps even some moisture on bridges and overpasses that might freeze.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at —- p.m. and moonset will be at 12:22 a.m. Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Night: A few clouds, otherwise mostly clear. Seasonably cold temperatures. Patchy fog near lakes and rivers.
What impact is expected? Other than patchy fog, none anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 0-5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
Moonrise will be at —- p.m. and moonset will be at 12:22 a.m. Waning Crescent
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December 22, 2016
Thursday: Partly sunny and a bit cooler than Wednesday.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North winds at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 12:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:53 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Thursday Night: Becoming cloudy. A 20% for a late-night shower or wintry mix over the Missouri Ozarks.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26 to 30 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: North winds becoming east at 5 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Perhaps wintry mix for the Missouri Ozarks. Most of the precipitation will arrive on Friday.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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December 23, 2016
Friday: Cloudy with scattered showers possible.
What impact is expected? None anticipated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: East/southeast winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Small chance early in the day
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 7:05 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 1:51 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:24 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Friday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Monitor updates in case it is a few degrees colder than forecast.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-38 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous to widespread showers
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Small risk.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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December 24, 2016
Saturday: Cloudy. Rain showers possible. Milder.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-52 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west and eventually north/northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? At least scattered. Perhaps better coverage before 1 pm vs after. Monitor updates.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain is a possibility. Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 2:45 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:57 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Isolated showers.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 40’s
Wind Chill:
Winds: East and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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December 25, 2016
Christmas Day
Sunday: Cloudy. Breezy. Well above normal temperatures. Isolated rain showers possible.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds. Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Widely scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Not during the day
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 3:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:31 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Breezy. Unseasonably mild. Rising temperatures ahead of the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Locally heavy rain. Will monitor storm risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are likely.
Temperatures: Lows mostly in the 50’s. Temperatures steady or slowly rising the first half of the night.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west and northwest at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 25 mph likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread. Coverage will depend on the timing of the cold front.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain will be a possibility.
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December 26, 2016
Monday: Morning showers likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Showers ending from west to east as the day wears on.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are likely.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South becoming southwest and eventually west at 6-12 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread the first half of the day. Becoming scattered during the afternoon. Ending from west to east.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars. Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 4:34 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:10 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Monday Night: Some clouds. Isolated shower before 7 pm over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range
Wind Chill:
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
More information on the UV index. Click here
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Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY!!! FORTY WINNERS.
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Warming trend!
- Precipitation chances Friday night into Monday
- Thunderstorms?
- Another system around December 29th/30th
- BIG Christmas giveaway contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
We are nearing the end of December. Hard to believe that 2017 is knocking.
Wednesday is the first day of winter. It will arrive with little fanfare.
We might have some patchy fog Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This could be freezing fog. Freezing fog is when moisture, from fog, causes a thin layer of moisture to freeze on surfaces. Use care, if fog develops.
A weak cold front will push through the region Wednesday afternoon and night. The front will be accompanied by an increase in clouds. The front is forecast to enter and exit the region dry.
An upper level disturbance will push through the area on Friday evening and night. Some rain will develop over our region in response to the lift. Temperatures will be marginal for snow. It is possible that we have a rain rain/snow mix Friday night. At this time, this does not look like an accumulating snow event. As always, monitor updated forecasts.
Christmas Eve will deliver clouds and some rain showers. Above normal temperatures with a southerly wind flow. Highs will top out in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
A much stronger system arrives on Sunday into Monday. Christmas Day and Christmas night. Gusty winds will develop over the area in response to a deep area of low pressure that is forecast to bring a blizzard to portions of the Dakota’s and Minnesota.
Check out the temperature forecast from the GFS model for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
Keep in mind, the exact timing of the front will need to be monitored. We will warm up ahead of the front. If the front is slower then push these temperatures back a few hours.
Sunday 6 am
Sunday 12 pm
Monday 12 am
Monday 6 am
Right ahead of the front temperatures will spike. How many degrees above normal? A LOT! Normal high temperatures are around 47 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 28 degrees.
Temperatures will spik 25-35+ degrees above normal as the front pulls warmer air northward.
It will be too warm for snow in our local area on Christmas. Santa will have to deal with strong and gusty winds, rain showers, and perhaps lightning.
High temperatures, on Sunday, should rise into the 60’s ahead of the cold front. There might be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop ahead of and along the cold front. This system is still several days away. I will need to continue to fine tune the forecast.
Here is what some of the guidance shows for our weekend storm.
The first wave of precipitation should arrive on Friday night. Again, perhaps cold enough for a rain or rain/snow mix. Let’s monitor the trends in the guidance.
Blue represents snow and green represents rain
The GEM guidance has precipitation into our region on Friday afternoon. Some of this may be virga. Precipitation not reaching the ground because of dry air aloft.
Friday evening GEM model guidance. GEM is faster in bringing precipitation into the area on Friday afternoon/evening. GFS is slower.
This next image is for midnight the 26th (Monday morning). The GFS has slowed the system down a bit. Both the GEM and GFS guidance bring the main cold front through our region Sunday night into Monday morning.
Then, here is the Sunday/Monday storm system. Much larger system. More dynamic. The timing will need to be monitored.
This is the GEM guidance for 6 am on Monday. Notice the GEM also brings the front into our region Sunday night/Monday.
Monitor updates.
The front should exit the region on Monday. Some of the guidance has the front moving through on Sunday night. Other guidance packages exit the front on Monday. Once the front exits the region we will experience colder temperatures.
Another system is poised to impact the region around December 29th/30th. That system, at least at this time, appears wet vs white. Monitor updates, as always.
To view the winter weather outlook sign into your www.weathertalk.com account and click the Daily Weather Summary button. Then, follow the directions.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
No rain or snow anticipated through Friday morning.
Rain chances increase Friday night into Sunday night/Monday. A couple of disturbances will push through the region. Here is the current rainfall forecast from the WPC
Regional view
Click to enlarge
These totals include Friday night through Monday’s precipitation.
Southeast view
Click to enlarge
Northwest view
Click to enlarge
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Temperature Outlook
Wednesday morning low temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
Models might be too cold. I am forecasting highs on Wednesday to be more in line with 44 to 48 degrees. Guidance is quite a bit colder than that.
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon high temperatures
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.Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night through Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday and Monday: Some thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves through the area. Most likely on Sunday/Sunday night. I will monitor the severe potential. Still several days away. As we just witnessed, severe weather can occur during the winter months.
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Adjusted temperatures and wording for Friday night’s precipitation potential.
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No major concerns through Friday morning..
I am monitoring Friday night/Saturday morning for rain or rain/snow mix. If temperatures were a bit colder then snow would be in the forecast. Let’s keep an eye on it. Eithter way, we warm up on Saturday and Sunday.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
