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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
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Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook was updated on Friday, December 16th (with a video at the top)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Also, big announcement on Christmas Day!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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New winter weather outlook has been posted on the Weather Talk site. It is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab (upper left side). You will find the link and password there. Any issues email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Link to the outlook: WeatherTalk.
Sign up for the text messages and winter outlooks at www.beaudodsonweather.com
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December 16, 2016
Friday Night: Cloudy. Windy. Temperatures rising overnight. Fog possible. Freezing rain possible over our northern counties. That would include areas like the Missouri Ozarks, Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois towards Carmi, Illinois. They may not warm above freezing until after 8 pm. Also, Butler County, MO towards Cape Girardeau County, MO and then across parts of southern Illinois might have temperatures above freezing with some icy bridges. Bridges and overpasses may take a bit more time to warm. Thus, patchy ice possible. Elsewhere, scattered rain showers, drizzle, and light rain developing.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Northern and western counties (Ozarks of Missouri) will need to monitor for the potential of freezing drizzle early in the night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30’s north counties and 38 to 44 degree range elsewhere. Temperatures may rise overnight across portions of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky/Tennessee. By Saturday morning some areas may have reached 50 degrees! Most likely this would be far southeast Missouri into Kentucky/Tennessee.
Wind Chill: 28-38 degrees
Winds: Becoming south at 10-30 mph. Gusty winds likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread patchy light rain/drizzle
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? The Missouri Ozarks towards Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL towards Carmi, IL will need to monitor temperatures. Freezing drizzle can’t be ruled out. It may take bridges and overpasses more time to warm. Temperatures might be above freezing, but it takes time for surfaces to warm. Keep this in mind.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Check out this temperature map for 5 am on Saturday morning. Wide range of temperatures.
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December 17, 2016
Saturday: Cloudy. Windy. Brief warm spell for portions of the region. A chance for light rain, drizzle, and rain showers. A thunderstorm possible. If storms form then they could be on the strong side. Monitor updates. Temperatures may vary considerably across our region (see graphics below).
What impact is expected? Some wet roadways. Gusty winds. Small risk for lightning. Gusty winds near storms (if they develop).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 36-44 degree range from Farmington, MO to Carmi, IL. Temperatures in the 54-64 degree range over far southeast Missouri, extreme southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Guidance is all over the place with temperatures across the area. See graphic below.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Variable winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 30 mph possible. Some storms could produce gusty winds, as well.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? The risk is small, but not zero.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0
Moonrise will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous
Check out the difference in temperatures across the area. The first image is the NAM and second is the GFS model. Big differences.
12 PM Noon Saturday
and the GFS (notice the GFS has a larger and stronger warm push into Illinois and Indiana. Low confidence on Saturday temperatures.
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Saturday Night: Flash freeze. Rain redeveloping (especially over far southern Illinois/far southeast Missouri/Kentucky/Tennessee). Rapidly falling temperatures. Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some light accumulation possible. Remember, it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to cause icy road conditions. This event is likely not about amounts. This event is about rapidly falling temperatures with some precipitation continuing. Icy roads possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways may become icy. Hazardous driving conditions possible. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 0 to 14 degrees.
Winds: West and northwest at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Greater coverage possible over far southeast Missouri/far southern Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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December 18, 2016
Sunday: Bitterly cold. Clearing sky conditions. Some icy roads possible on Sunday morning. Precipitation should have ended by sunrise.
What impact is expected? Icy roads are a possibility. Low wind chills values of -5 to 15 above. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 15 above
Winds: North at 6-12 mph with some higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? Precipitation should have ended by Sunday morning. MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Precipitation will have come to an end by Sunday morning. Small chance for remaining snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Clear. Bitterly cold. Coldest air of the season, thus far. Low wind chill values.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Low wind-chill values. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 4-12 degree range. A bit of a range across the area.
Wind Chill: -10 to 10 above
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 19, 2016
Monday: Some high clouds possible. Mix sun/clouds. Cold.
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold temperatures before 12 pm. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 15-20 degrees
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Cold temperatures and low wind chill values.
Sunrise will be at 7:03 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 11:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-20 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-15 degree range
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Not at this time.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 20, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Not as cold as Monday.
What impact is expected? None anticipated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: 30-35 degrees
Winds: East and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:51 a.m. Last Quarter
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Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24-28 degree range
Wind Chill: 18-24 degree range
Winds: South at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY!!! FORTY WINNERS.
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Buckle up, we are going for a weather ride
- Surge of warm air Saturday
- Flash freeze Saturday night
- Icy patches possible Saturday evening into Sunday
- BIG Christmas giveaway contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
The detailed winter weather outlook has been updated
To view the winter weather outlook ~ Click Here
The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This is what it will look like
Friday Night:
A wild ride of weather developing for our region. One of the sharper temperature drops that I can remember. Some of my forecast counties will rise into the 60’s on Saturday. Temperatures will fall into the teens by Sunday morning.
A flash freeze is possible on Saturday night and Sunday morning. What is a flash freeze?
Light rain, drizzle, and showers will spread across the region on Friday night into Saturday. Gusty southerly winds will also develop (especially on Saturday). Winds may gust abover 30 mph.
Temperatures might be near or below freezing on Friday evening over the Ozarks of Missouri and then our northern counties. That would include areas such as Farmington, Missouri, Mt Vernon, Illinois, and Carmi, Illinois. Keep that in mind. Temperatures SHOULD rise tonight. It might be a struggle for our northern counties.
Here is the temperature anomaly maps for Saturday. WELL above normal for at least portions of the region.
Normal high temperatures are around 48 degrees. Temperatures will be 20+ degrees above normal on Saturday. There is some question as to just how far north the warmer air will spread.
Look at the differences in temperatures in the guidance for Saturday.
This is the NAM model. It shows the warmer air struggling to push north and east.
12 PM NAM model guidance forecast temperatures (Saturday)
12 PM GFS model guidance temperatures (Saturday). Quite the difference! Confidence on temperatures for Saturday remains low.
Rainfall totals from Friday night through Saturday will be fairly light over Missouri and Illinois. Totals of 0.10″ to 0.30″ are anticipated. If a thunderstorm forms then heavier totals are possible.
Heavier precipitation totals are likely over Kentucky and Tennessee. Final rainfall totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ are possible (especially as you travel south and east). Some of the guidance shows even higher totals for portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday morning and afternoon. If a thunderstorm forms then it could produce gusty winds. The severe weather risk is small, but not zero.
Saturday night and Sunday morning:
A headache of a forecast is developing for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Rapidly falling temperatures could result in puddles and wet roadways freezing. Icy patches are possible. This will happen as temperatures fall into the teens by Sunday morning.
An upper level system will push into our region on Saturday evening and night. This will cause precipitation to redevelop over the region. Heaviest precipitation will occur over Kentucky and Tennessee.
As temperatures fall, the precipitaton will switch to freezing rain and sleet. The freezing rain and sleet will change to snow as colder temperatures spread south and east. Icy road conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday. Monitor updates.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar for Saturday into Saturday night.
Green is rain. Blue would be snow. Red, pink, and purple would be freezing rain and sleet.
6 AM on Saturday
The low is moving towards or near St Louis on the GFS model. NAM model shows south of St Louis. EC guidance takes the low over St Louis.
6 PM Saturday future-cast radar. Rain redevelops.
9 PM Saturday night Snow, sleet, and freezing rain develops over the area.
This next image is for 12 AM on Sunday. Quite a bit of wintry mix over the area. Fairly light for the most part, but I am monitoring Kentucky and Tennessee for heavier bursts of precipitation.
This next image is for 3 AM on Sunday morning. Precipitation ending from west to east.
There remain questions on how much precipitaon will fall. I am a bit concerned that a lot of guidance indicates heavier totals over Kentucky and Tennessee. The real question might come down to temperatures. How far east and south will the freezing line spread on Saturday night.
Icy road conditions are possible Saturday night and on Sunday. Monitor updated forecasts.
Sunday will deliver bitterly cold temperatures. Well below normal temperatures. High temperatures may occur during the morning hours. Temperatures will likely remain steady or even fall a few degrees through the day. Bottom line, bitterly cold air on Sunday.
Wind chills values on Saturday night and Sunday will range from -5 to 15 degrees.
The bottom drops out on Sunday night with temperatures falling into the single digits and lower teens. WELL below normal temperatures. Normal low temperatures are around 28 degrees.
Wind chill temperatures will likely range from -10 to 10 above on Sunday night and Monday morning. This is an issue for the kids at the bus stop or walking to school. Frost bite concerns are valid.
Monday morning laws
Monday morning wind chill values. Brrr
Dry weather is likely Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night.
I am watching another system towards Wednesday and Thursday.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
Click images to enlarge
These are NWS forecast totals.
These are the total event precipitation totals:
Heaviest totals south and east vs west and north. These are the totals from Friday through Sunday.
Here is the north view of precipitation totals from Friday night through Sunday.
These are the totals from 6 pm Saturday through 12 am Sunday morning. The real question is how much of this is frozen vs liquid.
Another view (6 pm Saturday through 12 am Sunday)
Temperature Outlook
Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon high temperatures
Temperatures will not rise on Sunday. They might actually continue to fall a few degrees.
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.Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: I can’t rule out a few strong storms. Especially true for western Kentucky and Tennessee. If storms form then they could produce pockets of strong and gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated severe weather possible.
Saturday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major changes.
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Freezing rain and drizzle Friday night over southeast Missouri into northern parts of southern Illinois. Remember, it takes more time for surfaces to warm. Just because the temperature is above 32 degrees does not mean the bridges are.
Use care.
Icy road conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Flash freeze likely. A flash freeze is when water remaining on roadways freezes as cold air rapidly pushes into an area.
Bitterly cold air on Sunday night/Monday morning. Single digits possible. Lower teens likely. Wind chills will be even colder.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
