2 PM update
12 PM Saturday
Video UpdateThis is the latest informationWe have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
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Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide everyone the data and forecasts. Your support is important. Thank you.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook was updated on Friday, December 16th (with a video at the top)
Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab
Your proceeds also help support the Shadow Angel Foundation projects. Including our yearly teddy bear program. We purchase brand new GUND bears for Child Watch and PASAC. We are planning on adding a new charity in January. Stay tuned for that announcement!
Also, big announcement on Christmas Day!
Contest:
Twenty-Five days of Christmas giving! I will be giving away weather radios and some other items! There will be forty winners. Contest begins now.
Here is the link for the contest. Click here
You may enter once every 24 hours! For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
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New winter weather outlook has been posted on the Weather Talk site. It is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab (upper left side). You will find the link and password there. Any issues email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Link to the outlook: WeatherTalk.
Sign up for the text messages and winter outlooks at www.beaudodsonweather.com
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December 17, 2016.
Saturday Night: Flash freeze. Rain redeveloping (especially over far southern Illinois/far southeast Missouri/Kentucky/Tennessee). Rapidly falling temperatures. Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Some light accumulation possible. Remember, it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to cause icy road conditions. This event is likely not about amounts. This event is about rapidly falling temperatures with some precipitation continuing. Icy roads possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways may become icy. Hazardous driving conditions possible. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill: 0 to 14 degrees.
Winds: West and northwest at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Greater coverage possible over far southeast Missouri/far southern Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Freezing rain, sleet, and snow possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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December 18, 2016
Sunday: Bitterly cold. Clearing sky conditions. Some icy roads possible on Sunday morning. Precipitation should have ended by sunrise.
What impact is expected? Icy roads are a possibility. Low wind chills values of -5 to 15 above. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 15 above
Winds: North at 6-12 mph with some higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? Precipitation should have ended by Sunday morning. MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Precipitation will have come to an end by Sunday morning. Small chance for remaining snow showers.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Snow showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Clear. Bitterly cold. Coldest air of the season, thus far. Low wind chill values.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Low wind-chill values. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 4-12 degree range. A bit of a range across the area.
Wind Chill: -10 to 10 above
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 19, 2016
Monday: Some high clouds possible. Mix sun/clouds. Cold.
What impact is expected? Bitterly cold temperatures before 12 pm. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 15-20 degrees
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Cold temperatures and low wind chill values.
Sunrise will be at 7:03 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 11:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:19 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 14-20 degree range
Wind Chill: 10-15 degree range
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Not at this time.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
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December 20, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cold. Not as cold as Monday.
What impact is expected? None anticipated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: 30-35 degrees
Winds: East and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 11:59 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:51 a.m. Last Quarter
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Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Cold.
What impact is expected? None anticipated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 24-28 degree range
Wind Chill: 18-24 degree range
Winds: South at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
CHRISTMAS GIVEAWAY!!! FORTY WINNERS.
I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio). I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service. I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!
You may enter once per day through Christmas. You must wait 24 hours before re-entering. The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day! There will be FORTY winners!
Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.
You can find more information on the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.
The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.
You may enter once each day! You have to wait 24 hours before each entry. For example, if you enter at 10 on Friday then you can enter again at 10 am on Saturday.
Click graphic to enter the contest.
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Winter weather tonight. Sleet, freezing rain, and snow.
- Flash freeze tonight
- Bitterly cold air tonight into Monday
- BIG Christmas giveaway contest continues. I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)! Subscriptions to the texting service! A $100 gift card from Amazon. The contest is open NOW! You must wait 24 hours before entering each day. See details below. There will be FORTY winners!
The detailed winter weather outlook has been updated
To view the winter weather outlook ~ Click Here
The outlook is behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.
This is what it will look like
A flash freeze is likely tonight into Sunday morning. What is a flash freeze?
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How much rain is exThursdayover the coming days?
This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.
Click images to enlarge
These are NWS forecast totals.
Temperature Outlook
Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon high temperatures
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.Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated temperatures, snow/ice probabilities. Snow/ice totals. Tricky forecast. Lower than normal confidence on totals.
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Icy road conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Flash freeze likely. A flash freeze is when water remaining on roadways freezes as cold air rapidly pushes into an area.
Bitterly cold air on Sunday night/Monday morning. Single digits possible. Lower teens likely. Wind chills will be even colder.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
