Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 15, 2016: Cold to continue. Winter weather?

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December 14, 2016
Wednesday Night:  Clear and bitterly cold.  Well below normal temperatures.  Wind chill values will drop into the 7 to 14 degree range.  Bundle up weather.  A few patches of fog near bodies of water.
What impact is expected
?  Cold wind chills.  Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 15-20 degree range.  Isolated pockets of slightly lower temperatures not out of the question.  Lower 20’s perhaps for the Poplar Bluff area into northwest Tennessee.  Some question as to whether that area will fall into the upper teens.
Wind Chill: 7-14 degrees
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph diminishing to 4-8 mph late
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None anticipated.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Flurry (if anything at all)
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:22 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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December 15, 2016
Thursday:  A few patches of morning fog.  Partly to mostly sunny and cold.  A few clouds.  Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected?  Cold.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill: 12-20 degrees
Winds:  North at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
? None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? Unlikely
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 
will be at 7:01 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night:  Cold.  Increasing clouds overnight.
What impact is expected
?  Cold temperatures.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 16-24 degree range.  Temperatures might rise a bit after 4 am.
Wind Chill: 12-16 degrees
Winds:  North early then becoming variable at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
: None anticipated
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:53 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:22 a.m.  Waning Gibbous

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December 16, 2016
Friday:  Clouds thickening and lowering through the day.  A chance for some light showers during the afternoon.  Areas along and north of a line from near Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois towards Carmi, Illinois may have a wintry mix if the precipitation moves in fast enough.  Missouri Ozarks, as well.  Small risk of wintry mix elsewhere.  Monitor updates, as always.  If precipitation were to arrive faster then the forecast would need some adjusting.  It will be a race against the freezing line moving north and light precipitation moving in from the southwest. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways.  Possibly some patchy freezing precipitation over our northern counties.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 36-44 degree range.  Temperatures will be the coldest over our northern counties.  Warmer south and west.  A warm front will pass through the area on Friday into Friday evening.  Temperatures will warm as the front passes.
Wind Chill: 25-30 degrees
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 7-14 mph.  
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
? Scattered.  Mostly during the afternoon hours.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Precipitation may begin as a wintry mix over portions of the area before changing to rain.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars during the afternoon hours.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 7:57 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:16 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
.

Friday Night:  Cloudy.  Scattered rain showers, drizzle, and light rain.  Small risk for lightning.  Any mix will quickly change to all rain.  Warmer air arrives overnight.  Monitor updates in case the storm system tracks further south.  Temperatures rising overnight.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.  Temperatures rising overnight into the 50’s.
Wind Chill:  28-38 degrees
Winds:  Becoming south at 7-14 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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December 17, 2016
Saturday:  Cloudy.  A chance for rain showers.  A slight chance for a gusty thunderstorm.  Warmer.  Breezy.  Temperatures may vary considerably across our region (see graphics below).  Rainfall totals of 0.05″ to 0.20″ parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Then 0.15″ to 0.40″ far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee. 
What impact is expected?  Some wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.  Gusty winds near storms (if they develop).  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range from Farmington, MO to Carmi, IL.  Temperatures in the 58-66 degree range. over the rest of the area.  Some question as to just how far north the upper 50’s to middle 60’s will occur.  Keep that in mind.  Brief warm up before the cold air arrives.
Wind Chill
Winds:  Variable winds at  10-20  mph.  Gusts above 30 mph possible.  Some storms could produce gusty winds, as well.
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60%  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation
Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:02 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0

Moonrise 
will be at 9:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:02 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
.

Saturday Night:  Flash freeze.  Rain redeveloping.  Rapidly falling temperatures.  Rain changing to freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  Some light accumulation possible.  Remember, it only takes a small amount of freezing rain to cause icy road conditions.  This event is likely not about amounts.  This event is about rapidly falling temperatures with some precipitation continuing.  Icy roads possible.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways may become icy.  Hazardous driving conditions possible.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 14 to 22 degree range.
Wind Chill:  4 to 16 degrees.
Winds:  West and northwest at 10-20 mph.  Gusty winds, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 70% .  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of
precipitation
: Scattered to perhaps widespread.  Greater coverage possible over far southern Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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December 18, 2016
Sunday:  Bitterly cold.  Morning clouds.  Becoming sunny.  Some snow showers possible.
What impact is expected?  Icy roads are a possibility.   Low wind chills values of -5 to 15 above.  Frost bite.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 16-22 degree range.
Wind Chill: -5 to 15 above 
Winds:  North at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation?  Precipitation should have ended by Sunday morning.  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  Precipitation will have come to an end by Sunday morning.  Small chance for remaining snow showers. 
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Snow showers are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  
Sunrise 
will be at 7:33 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1

Moonrise 
will be at 10:03 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:42 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
.

Sunday Night:  Clear.  Bitterly cold.  Coldest air of the season, thus far.
What impact is expected
?  Cold temperatures.  Low wind-chill values.  Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
 High. This forecast should verify. 
Temperatures:  Lows in the 4-12 degree range
Wind Chill:  -10 to 10 above
Winds:  North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

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December 19, 2016
Monday:  Mostly sunny.  Perhaps some increase in high clouds through the day.  Cold.
What impact is expected?  Bitterly cold temperatures before 12 pm.  Frost bite.  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 10-20 degrees
Winds:  North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0%  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
?  None anticipated. 
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.  Cold temperatures and low wind chill values.
Sunrise 
will be at 7:03 p.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2

Moonrise 
will be at 11:02 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:19 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
.

Monday Night:  Mostly clear.  Cold.
What impact is expected
?  Cold temperatures.  Frost bite.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:
 Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 14-20 degree range
Wind Chill:  10-15 degree range
Winds:  North at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Not at this time.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but it will be cold.

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1.  Bitterly cold air.  Well below normal.
  2.  Precipitation chances begin to increase on Friday into Friday night.
  3.  Rain showers and warm for Saturday.  Light rain totals.
  4.  Wintry precipitation possible Saturday night and Sunday
  5.  Coldest air the season arrives on Sunday night
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Baby, it’s cold outside!  As the song says, we are in a bit of a deep freeze.  Temperatures are more like January than December.  It is going to continue into next week.  A brief warming spell on Friday night and Saturday.

 

 

The coldest of the season arrives on Monday morning.  Temperatures may fall into the upper single digits and lower teens.  Brr Brrrr Brrrrr!

Let’s break it down.

Wednesday Night and Thursday:

Cold air will continue to filter into the area as a Canadian high-pressure center crosses the area.  Temperatures by Thursday morning will have fallen into the 15 to 20 degree range.  A few spots could drop a bit lower than 15 degrees.  Southern counties near the Kentucky and Tennessee line/Missouri Bootheel might remain in the upper teens to lower 20’s.

Winds will range from 6-12 mph.  This will create wind chill values of 5 to 15 above.  Don’t forget the pets!  If it is cold outside for you then it can also be cold for them.  Water bowls will freeze.

Look at how much of the nation is below normal in the temperature department.  The forecast for a cold December is certainly verifying.

gfs_t2m_a_f_conus2_5

Here are the wind chill maps for Thursday morning and afternoon.  The wind chill is what the temperature feels like to your skin.  Frost bite can occur when low temperatures combine with gusty winds.  Use care and don’t forget the kids.  Gloves are a must.
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hqdefault

jets-wind-chill-factor

Actual air temperature at the bus stop on Thursday morning.
(temperatures might be several degrees colder than this model is showing)

sfct-wxt_ov

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Thursday morning bus stop wind chill values
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frimorningdews

Thursday afternoon bus stop temperatures

sfct-wxt_ov-2

Thursday afternoon bus stop wind chill values

thursafternoondews

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Friday and Friday night:

Complicated forecast.  Changeable forecast.  Check back frequently for updates.

Remember, winter weather events are extremely difficult to forecast.

  1.  Scattered precipitation arrives on Friday/Friday night
  2.  Strong cold front plows through the region on Saturday
  3.  Wintry mix may develop on Saturday night/Sunday (as always, this far out, low confidence)

A storm system approaches our region from the southwest and west on Friday into Friday night.  This system is likely to move in faster than anticipated.

Cold air will be in place Friday morning into early afternoon.  If the precipitation arrives fast enough then a wintry mix will be possible.  The wintry mix would quickly change to rain as a warm front pushes through the region.

There is a lot of dry air at the surface.  That will create virga.  Virga is when precipitation falls from a cloud and evaporates before reaching the surface.  It can take awhile for the atmosphere to moisten up enough for precipitation to actually reach the ground.  It may look like it is raining on radar, but much of it will be virga.

At this time, widespread travel issues are not anticipated for Friday or Friday night.  With that said, any freezing rain that falls on the cold roadways could be a problem.  It only takes a little bit of frozen precipitation to cause travel problems in our area.  Keep that in mind.  Roads will be cold on Friday into Friday afternoon.

Rain showers will continue into Friday night and Saturday as warmer air arrives.  There is some question as to how much rain will fall over the area.  I am leaning towards 0.05″ to 0.25″ over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Not much.  The rest of the area perhaps 0.20″ to 0.40″.   That is for Friday into Saturday afternoon.

A few thunderstorms are possible on Saturday as the cold front pushes through the area.  Gusty winds, as well.  Winds aloft will be quite strong.  If thunderstorms occur then they could bring down some of those winds.  Keep that in mind.

Severe weather is not anticipated.

Temperatures on Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will rise into the 50s and 60’s!  Amazing!  Temperatures by Sunday morning will fall into the teens and lower 20’s.  DRAMATIC temperature shift.  One of the larger temperature drops in quite some time.

Here are the temperature anomalies for Saturday and then for Monday morning.  Well above normal temperatures for Saturday and well below normal temperatures for Monday.

Keep in mind, normal high temperatures are around 48 degrees and normal low temperatures are around 28 degrees.

Here are the anomalies.  How much above and below normal.

sfct_anom-wxt_ov

and here are the Monday numbers

sfct_anom-wxt_ov-1

Here are the NAM and GFS model guidance forecast for high temperatures on Saturday.  That tongue of warmer air is associated with the southerly winds.

Look at the large difference in temperatures over our region.  Some question on how far north and west the 60’s should be placed.

sfctmax_006h-wxt_ov-1

Here is the GFS forecast (the one above is the NAM)

sfctmax_006h-wxt_ov

Rainfall totals vary greatly on the models.  The reason for this, for one, is the placement of where the rain develops.  The guidance wants to speed the front up a bit and the better moisture does not arrive until right ahead of the front.

Rainfall totals may range from 0.05″ to 0.25″ for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Rainfall totals may range from 0.20″ to 0.40″ elsewhere.

Here is what the GFS is showing for rain totals.  Not much for parts of the region.

sat7pmgfstotals

Here is what the GFS guidance is showing for totals by Sunday afternoon.  Notice the larger numbers over Kentucky?  This is because the GFS develops additional precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday.  That would be a wintry mix.  This needs to be closely monitored, of course.

sat7pmtotlasgfs

Here are the NAM rainfall totals.  This is from Friday into Saturday.

This does NOT include what might fall Saturday night and Sunday.

Again, you can see the heavier totals are over portions of Kentucky and Tennessee.

I say heavier, the totals are not that large to begin with.

namtotals

Bottom line:

  1.  Precipitation arrives Friday afternoon.  Could start as a wintry mix before temperatures rise above freezing.  Overall winter precipitation risk on Friday is low.  Better chance over our northern counties.
  2.  Showers/rain possible Friday night/Saturday.  Not anticipating heavy precipitation.
  3.  Highs into the 50’s/60’s on Saturday

Saturday Late Afternoon into Sunday night:

The next question centers around a wintry mix on Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the cold front on Saturday afternoon and night.  There remain some questions about the timing of the front.  I think the front will arrive in our northwest counties during the early afternoon.  It will then push east and southeast through the afternoon and overnight hours.

The front may briefly stall over portions of southern Indiana into Kentucky/Tennessee.  This would happen as another piece of energy rounds the jet stream flow and pushes into our region on Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.  If this happens then additional precipitation will develop over our region.

Temperatures will have fallen through the 20’s and into the upper teens by Sunday morning.  Freezing rain, sleet, and snow may develop on Saturday afternoon and night.  Perhaps more likely Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Roads may become icy and hazardous.  There remain a lot of questions about how much precipitation falls into the cold air.

If the second system is weak or does not fully develop then precipitation amounts will be low.  If the system holds together or is stronger than forecast then measurable wintry precipitation will occur.

Here is the NAM 700 mb vort map.  This shows the energy pushing into our region that create additional lift along the front.

2016-12-14_9-50-59

Monitor updates, as always.

Winter weather forecasts are fickle.  Changeable forecasts are likely.  Often times forecasters don’t have a full handle on the forecast until 12-24 hours before an event.  I have watched forecasts fall apart while the precipitation arrives.  Winter storm forecasting in our region is difficult, at best.

Let’s take a look at some future-cast radar images from the NAM model guidance.

The NAM wants to bring precipitation into the region a bit earlier on Friday.  As I mentioned, this will need to be monitored.  A lot of this is probably virga.

The NAM does not go quite far enough out to capture what happens Saturday night.

This first image is for 6 am on Friday.  NAM model is likely too fast with bringing precipitation into the region.  Again, virga.

Green is rain.  Blue is snow.

refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov

This next image is for 9 am on Friday.  Future-cast radar.  What radar might look like.

Again, perhaps a little too fast on precipitation arriving.  This could also be virga.  Precipitation not reaching the ground.

refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-1

This next image is for 12 pm on Friday.

Temperatures will quickly rise as the warm front passes your location.
.

refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-2

This next image is for 6 pm on Saturday.  The NAM is showing some freezing rain.  I am not sure why it is showing this.  This should be rain, by that point.

Rain should be reaching the ground on Friday night and Saturday.

Temperatures should be warm enough for rain.

refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-3
This next image is for 12 am on Saturday.  Scattered rain showers over our region.
refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-4
This next image is for 6 am on Saturday.  Rain in our local area.  Maybe a clap of thunder.
refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-5
This is when things get interesting.  Notice the increase in precipitation by 6 pm on Saturday?  This is because of the second system moving into the area.  This helps create a squeeze play along the cold front.  Heavier precipitation.  This might turn to a wintry mix as colder air advances eastward.
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NAM shows rain, at this point.  How fast the cold air arrives is obviously important for the change from rain to a wintry mix.
refcmp_ptype-wxt_ov-6
Monitor updated forecasts.
Here is the GFS model guidance future-cast radar for Saturday at 6 pm.
prateptype_cat-wxt_ov
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Here is the 12 am Sunday future-cast radar
The pink and purple colors represent sleet and freezing rain.  Blue is snow.
prateptype_cat-wxt_ov-1
Here is the 6 am Sunday future-cast radar
prateptype_cat-wxt_ov-2
Bitterly cold air moves into the region Sunday night into Monday morning.  Single digits can’t be ruled out.
Here are the GFS Monday morning low temperatures.
sfctmin_006h-wxt_ov
Here are the wind chill values for Monday morning.
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Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

This image is the official NOAA/WPC/NWS rainfall forecast graphic.

Click images to enlarge

These are NWS forecast totals.

Friday through 6 pm on Saturday:

This would be rain

wpc_total_precip_nashville_14

Now, this would include Saturday night through Sunday.  Notice additional precipitation is added.  The WPC is forecasting the front to stall and drop some wintry precipitation in our region Saturday night/Sunday morning.

wpc_total_precip_nashville_20

Here is the north view

These are the totals for Friday until 6 pm on Saturday

wpc_total_precip_stlouis_14

Notice our south and east counties have a better chance for additional precipitation after 6 pm on Saturday vs west and north.

These are the totals from Friday through Sunday

wpc_total_precip_stlouis_20

 

Temperature Outlook 

Thursday  morning low temperatures

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Thursday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon high
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.Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night through next Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday night into Saturday:  Severe weather, at this time, appears unlikely.  Lightning will be possible with a few thunderstorms on Saturday.  Perhaps gusty winds, as well.  Monitor updates.

Saturday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday, December 18th through Thursday, December 22nd:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Updated temperatures.  Updated rain chances.

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whatamiconcered
Bitterly cold air on Wednesday night into Thursday, and Friday.  Lows in the teens are possible Wednesday night and Thursday night.  Brrrrr

Wind chills will be even colder.

Precipitation may begin as a wintry mix on Friday before quickly turning to rain.  Precipitation may turn back into a wintry mix Saturday night into Sunday.  Some accumulation can’t be ruled out.  Slick roads would be the primary concern.  Slick sidewalks, as well.

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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