Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

December 1, 2016: Big contest! See details below.

We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog.  Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.

Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families.  You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.

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Are you in need of new eye glasses?  New contacts?  Perhaps you need an eye exam.  Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs.  Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.  . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.

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I have launched the new weather texting service!  I could use your help.  Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.

This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website.  Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.

For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com

Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…

Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab).  Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts.  Your support is crucial.

The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.  You will also find the password there.  The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.

The winter storm outlook has been updated (Wednesday, November 30th)  The next update will be Monday, December 5th

Here is the link to the new update – Daily Weather Summary tab

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Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page and the blog for 25 days of Christmas giving!  I will be giving away weather radios and some other items!  There will be forty winners.  Contest begins now.

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November 30, 2016
Wednesday Night:  Some evening clouds and then becoming clear.  Chilly temperatures. Diminishing winds.
What impact is expected
Most likely none.  Will monitor for patchy fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28 to 34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West and northwest at 7-14 mph early.  Winds decreasing to below 5 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m.  Waxing Crescent

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December 1, 2016
Thursday:  Mostly sunny and cooler.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation? No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 8:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:42 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and chilly.  
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 2, 2016
Friday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.
What impact is expected? None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 46-54  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  None
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 9:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:34 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Friday Night:  A few clouds.  Cold.  
What impact is expected
None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Northwest and west 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  None.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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December 3, 2016
Saturday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool temperatures.  I will be monitoring for a few showers over southern Missouri during the afternoon hours.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.  Perhaps some wet roadways.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Perhaps scattered
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise
will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  2-3

Moonrise
will be at 9:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:28 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Saturday Night: Cloudy.  A chance for some showers.  Showers could be mixed with snow or sleet, at times.  No accumulation anticipated.  
What impact is expected
Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  West 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 50% .  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps widespread.  Lower confidence on this part of the forecast.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  I can’t rule out some wet snow mixed in with the rain.  No accumulation anticipated.
Is severe weather expected?  No

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December 4, 2016
Sunday:  Cloudy.  A chance for morning showers.  Cool and damp.  Small chance for wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 42-46  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of
precipitation?
  Scattered to widespread
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Small risk for wet snow.   Nothing of significance.
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Consider a plan B.  We might have to deal with rain.
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index:  0-1

Moonrise
will be at 10:38 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Sunday Night:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Cool.  
What impact is expected

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  Variable 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of
precipitation
:  Precipitation should have come to an end.
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No

Is severe weather expected?  No

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December 5, 2016
Monday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Perhaps a shower.  I will be monitoring yet another storm system approaching from the south.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.  Wet roadways possible.  Low confidence.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the 45-50  degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  East at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for
precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of
precipitation?

Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
Sunrise
will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3

Moonrise
will be at 11:17 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:26 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Monday Night:  Cloudy. A chance for rain.  There is a large spread in the model guidance concerning precipitation coverage on Monday and Monday night.
What impact is expected
? Wet roadways.  Maybe lightning.  Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:  East 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation?
  MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of
precipitation
:
Will there be a chance for frozen precipitation?  Unlikely.
Is severe weather expected?  No

More information on the UV index.  Click here

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.

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Visit their website here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

  1. Winter storm update has been posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab)  Be sure and sign up for the service in order to view the winter outlooks.  Remember, my monthly costs are around $700.00.
  2. BIG contest on Facebook!  I am giving away 25 Midland 300 NOAA weather radios (valued at $60 each)!  Subscriptions to the texting service!  A $100 gift card from Amazon.  The contest is open NOW!
  3. Dry weather Wednesday night into Saturday morning
  4. Monitoring a new storm system for Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon
  5. Another system to monitor on Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning
  6. Larger system showing up around December 7th through December 9th

I have some announcements for all of you weather fans!

I am giving away 25 Midland NOAA Weather Radios (a value of $60 per radio).  I am giving away 14 one year subscriptions to the texting service.  I am giving away a $100 Amazon gift certificate!

You may enter once per day through Christmas.  The contest ends at 6 pm on Christmas Day!  There will be FORTY winners!

Winners will be randomly drawn through the service that runs my contests.

You can find more information on the Beau  Dodson Weather Facebook page and/or the daily weather blog updates.

The contest will begin now.  You may enter once per day.  The contest ends on Christmas Day at 6 pm.

Click graphic to enter the contest.

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Also

I have updated the winter storm forecast.  I update the winter storm outlook twice per week.  It is updated more frequently during inclement weather.  There was quite a bit to talk about today.  See the graphic further down in the blog.  It has the instructions on how to view the outlook.  Remember, the password is NOT the same password you use to sign into your Weather Talk account.  The password can be viewed behind the Daily Weather Summary tab.  There, you will find the link that will take you to the winter storm outlook.

Weather:

Tornadoes raked across the southlands on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Several lives were lost.

Here is the storm reports map.  The red dots are tornadoes.  Overnight tornadoes are particularly dangerous.  It is not unusual to have tornado outbreaks during the fall and winter months.

Click image to enlarge

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A quiet weather pattern for Wednesday night into Saturday morning.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Light winds. Dry through the period.

A new storm system will approach our region Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon.  The track of this system is still in question.  How fast moisture spreads into our region, on Saturday and Saturday night, will impact what type of precipitation falls.  It is possible that some wintry mix could occur at the onset of the system.

At this time, no snow or ice accumulation is anticipated.  Perhaps some novelty wet snowflakes mixed in on Saturday night.

Temperatures are forecast to warm a bit on Sunday.  That means whatever precipitation falls would be in the form of rain.  As always, monitor updates.  The system is still several days away.

Unsettled weather is on tap for next week.  Models are keying in on a potential significant system on Monday afternoon into Monday night and then again towards December 7th through the 9th.  Way too early for details, but the model guidance has been picking up on this system for some time now.  This leads me to believe that we need to monitor it closely.  I will go into more detail in the winter weather outlook.

November was certainly warm.  Let’s take a look at the temperature and rainfall anomalies.  Thankfully, over the past two weeks, we have been receiving rain at regular intervals.  Portions of the region are still in moderate to severe drought.  Some of that has been offset by recent rains.

We are still in drought, but we are better off than we were a couple of weeks ago.

Just look at how much of the country is covered by above normal temperatures.  I will be curious to see if November places in the top 5 mildest on record.  Records go back to the 1880’s.

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Precipitation, month to date departures.  How much above or below normal was precipitation?

Thankfully, over the past couple of weeks, we have started to receive regular rainfall.  We were still below normal, for the most part.  It could have been worse.

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WINTER STORM UPDATE:  

UPDATED TODAY!  Wednesday, November 30th 

I have updated the winter storm outlook.  The third of the season.  The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.

You can view the forecast by following these instructions.  Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall.  It is $3 a month.  A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more.  This helps offset the costs.

The next winter storm update will be posted on Monday, December 5th.  Posts are made more frequently when necessary (when winter weather is forecast).

To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Find me on Twitter, as well!

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How much rain is expected over the coming days?

Dry weather is anticipated through Saturday morning.  I will be tracking another system Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon/evening.  I will be monitoring a potential system December 5th/6th and yet another one for December 7th through the 9th.

This first image is the official NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast graphic.

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Here are two models.  The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.

This is for the Saturday/Sunday rain event.

GFS model guidance.

Click image to enlarge

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GEM model rainfall totals

Click image to enlarge

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Temperature Outlook

Thursday morning low temperatures

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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Friday 
morning low temperatures

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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday night through Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

I will be monitoring a storm system December 7th through the 9th.  Too early to know whether thunderstorms will be a concern.
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Adjusted rain probabilities for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

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No major concerns for Thursday night into Friday night.  Perhaps some fog at night.


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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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