Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 31, 2018: Non-subscribers blog update. Your holiday weekend forecast.

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August 31, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.   A weak impulse will move across the area.  This could pop a few thunderstorms.  Many areas will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds from time to time.  A widely scattered shower or thunderstorm possible as a weak system moves through the region.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Widely scattered wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:25 PM
Moonrise:  10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:11 AM

 

September 1, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.   Most likely dry.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated storms possible, but many areas will remain dry.
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 2, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  Warm and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:27 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few clouds.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog.  Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None in most areas.  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 3, 2018
Labor Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  An isolated wet roadway and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:26 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if anything at all
Wind: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM  Last Quarter
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

September 4, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:28 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  A stray thunderstorm early in the evening.
Wind:  South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 5, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.  Muggy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:29 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few cumulus clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 6, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of an isolated thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind:  South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:30 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind:  South at 5 t0 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:16 PM
Moonrise: 2:42 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  5:21 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

 

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Friday morning

 

Most of what the WPC has on this map would fall today.  If you don’t receive rain today, then your chances dwindle tomorrow into next week.

 

Remember, this is never exact.  Take the general idea of how much rain could fall.  Some will receive more and some less, as always is the case in our region.

 

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

 

Click to enlarge

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Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

 

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM next Friday

 

Most of what the WPC has on this map would fall today.  If you don’t receive rain today, then your chances dwindle tomorrow into next week.

 

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

 

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

 

This is through 7 AM next Friday

 

Again, most of what the WPC/NOAA has painted on this map would fall today.

 

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

 

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

 

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

 

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Friday and Friday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible today.  If storms form they would produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.  Severe weather is unlikely.

 

Saturday into Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A small chance of isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Welcome to the weekend
  2. A few thunderstorms
  3. Warm and humid weekend
  4. Hot and humid next week.
  5. Small rain chances.  Sorry!  I know many still need rain.

 

Some heavy thunderstorms moved across portions of the area last night.  I thought most of them would dissipate before 11 pm.  They were still going strong past that time.

Locally heavy rain and frequent lightning occurred in the thunderstorms.

A few of the storms produced over an inch of rain.  One area that received heavy rain was extreme southwest Kentucky.

You can see on this radar image, taken at 11 pm, the placement of the storms.  They formed along an outflow boundary that stretched from the northwest towards the southeast.  The storms moved in odd directions.  Some of them moved northeast, some moved north, and some moved northwest.

 

Radar image from 11 p.m., last night. 

 

 

 

Here is the radar estimated rainfall from those storms.  A few locations received very heavy rain.

Click to enlarge the images

 

 

 

 

We will have a few thunderstorms in the region today.  There are several outflow boundaries left in the area.  Those outflow boundaries are where new storms could form.

Not everyone will receive rain today.  A few spots, however, could pick up over an inch of rain.  There is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for storms to tap into.  It is just a matter of finding one of those storms parked over your area.

A few storms could produce frequent lightning and gusty winds, as well.

Thunderstorm chances will dwindle tonight into next week.  I have 10% to 20% chances each day.  That would mostly be heat of the day type activity.  Typical of the summer months.  Most areas will remain dry.

I know some of you desperately need rain.  I am afraid widespread relief is not in the current cards.

Temperatures this weekend into next week will mostly be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s during the afternoon hours.  Low temperatures will hover around 70 degrees.  Perhaps a few degrees above 70.  It will also be humid/muggy.

Widespread rain or relief from the heat is not in the forecast through at least next Thursday.

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

St Louis, Missouri, National Weather Association

This episode of WeatherBrains is coming directly from the NWA annual meeting in St. Louis, MO. Lots of discussion on various topics from the NWA conference. Joining us tonight from the meeting are Dr. John Scala, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Scott Martin, James Spann, Greg Stumpf, Alis Smith, Kevin Laws (BHM), Fred Glass, Dr. Pam Heinselman (NSSL), and Dr. Chuck Graves (St. Louis University).

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 29 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Severe thunderstorm watches tonight North Central US
  • MCS from MN into WI Monday night
  • Severe weather stays north from Great Lakes to New England next 2 days
  • One year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey
  • 25th anniversary of 1993 Flood in St. Louis area
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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