Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 29, 2018: Non-subscribers blog update. Thunderstorm chances.

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August 30, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and then along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85       KY ~ 80 to 85       TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~  20% to 30%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly southeast Missouri and along KY/TN border).  Perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.  That is highly dependent on a complex of storms pushing eastward from western Missouri.
Wind: north and northeast wind behind the front at 4 to 8 mph.  South and southwest winds ahead of the front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Keep an eye on southeast Missouri.  A complex of storms in western Missouri will move east and southeast.  Some could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:24 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog.   A few evening showers and thunderstorms.  Mainly in southeast Missouri and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40% early    IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.  Ending.
Wind: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium2
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:26 PM
Moonrise:  9:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM

 

August 31, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.   A weak impulse will move across the area.  This could pop a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered thunderstorms.
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds from time to time.  An evening shower or thunderstorm possible as a weak system moves through the region.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.  Ending.
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered  wet roadways and isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:25 PM
Moonrise:  10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:11 AM

 

September 1, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.   Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92      IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 2, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Many areas will be dry (most areas).
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: HIgh
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:27 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog.  Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None in most areas.  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

September 3, 2018
Labor Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  An isolated wet roadway and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:26 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated if anything at all
Wind: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM  Last Quarter
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

September 4, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:28 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  A stray thunderstorm early in the evening.
Wind:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 5, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Hot.  Muggy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps a few thunderstorms on radar.
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:29 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few cumulus clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 6, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:30 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:16 PM
Moonrise: 2:42 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  5:21 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the seven day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Thursday morning

If we have rain, it would most likely be today into tomorrow.  Perhaps again towards the middle of next week.

Remember, this is never exact.  Take the general idea of how much rain could fall.  Some will receive more and some less, as always is the case in our region.

Click to enlarge

.

 

Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM Thursday

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

This is through 7 AM Thursday

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Thursday into Friday:  A few thunderstorms are possible.  I will keep an eye on a cluster of thunderstorms moving towards southeast Missouri from western Missouri.  Some of those storms could be intense, but mostly to our west.   If the line holds together, then some of the storms in southeast Missouri could produce damaging wind gusts.  A few storms will produce heavy rain and frequent lightning.

Saturday into Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A small chance of isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the day.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.  Notice that zone in southeast Missouri.  That is because of a thunderstorm complex in western Missouri.  That complex will push east and southeast into the afternoon hours.  Perhaps a few severe thunderstorms as it moves through portions of southeast Missouri.

 

Here is how the high resolution SPC WRF model handles the thunderstorm complex.

The time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.  This is one model’s opinion.

Click to enlarge

 

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. A few thunderstorms possible today (mainly the Bootheel of MO and along the KY/TN border).
  2. Warm weekend ahead of us.
  3. Warm next week.
  4. Monitoring the middle of next week for additional rain chances.

 

Sorry, running behind.  I am at the National Weather Association conference.  Computer issues here at the hotel.

 

Well, once again some of you picked up an inch or two of rain.  Meanwhile, others barely had a drop.  Same pattern, but different day.

Here are a couple of maps showing you radar indicated rain totals.

 

 

I zoomed in on the Murray area.  Notice the large total differences from one area to the next.

 

 

The cold front responsible for Wednesday’s showers and thunderstorms has drifted southward.  It is still close enough to the region to produce a few showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon.

The greatest chance will be across southeast Missouri and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee State line.  Lesser chances as you travel northward.

Storms that form today could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.  A few storms could be severe in southeast Missouri with high winds.  Lesser severe risk elsewhere.

Let’s keep an eye on those storms in western Missouri.

Here is the 9:40 AM radar.  See them?  They are moving east and southeast.  They would most likely target southeast Missouri.

See the live radar link below (for the most up to date view)

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.

 

 

On Friday, a weak disturbance will push across the area.  This could spark a few showers and thunderstorms.  Many areas will remain dry.

If you are camping Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, then you can expect daily highs in the 88 to 94 degree range.  Quite warm.  Overnight lows will hover around 70 degrees.  Light wind conditions are anticipated.

Decent camping weather (as long as you avoid the isolated storms)!  It will, of course, be warm/hot.  Keep that in mind.

There will be a daily 10% to 20% chance of thunderstorms (slightly higher on Friday).  Isolated heat of the day summer storms.  Nothing unusual and certainly not enough to warrant canceling any outdoor activities.

Again, keep an eye on Friday’s radar.  A disturbance will produce a few more areas of precipitation than say Saturday through Monday.

Temperatures will be warm next week as high pressure dominates the region.  We should experience daily high temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.  It will likely be humid, as well.

Summer weather will hold, for now.  I suppose we should enjoy it!

Longer range.

I am monitoring next Wednesday through Friday for a few showers and thunderstorms.

I wanted to show you this map.  This is the precipitation anomaly map.  This is through September 8th (night).

Wow.  Look at the massive precipitation anomaly numbers from Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and areas surrounding that zone.  Huge numbers,  Some of these numbers are 500% to 700% of normal rainfall.

Large amounts of rain are being forecast in that purple zone.  Notice our area is in below normal rainfall.

 

There are also signals that the tropical Atlantic might become busier.  It is hurricane season.  It has been quite, thus far (Atlantic).

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

St Louis, Missouri, National Weather Association

This episode of WeatherBrains is coming directly from the NWA annual meeting in St. Louis, MO. Lots of discussion on various topics from the NWA conference. Joining us tonight from the meeting are Dr. John Scala, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Scott Martin, James Spann, Greg Stumpf, Alis Smith, Kevin Laws (BHM), Fred Glass, Dr. Pam Heinselman (NSSL), and Dr. Chuck Graves (St. Louis University).

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 29 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Severe thunderstorm watches tonight North Central US
  • MCS from MN into WI Monday night
  • Severe weather stays north from Great Lakes to New England next 2 days
  • One year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey
  • 25th anniversary of 1993 Flood in St. Louis area
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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