Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 28/29, 2017: All eyes on Harvey

 
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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The following link is for Weather Text subscribers.  This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted.  The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists.  Some of the best in the region.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66       TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars

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August 29, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms.  Most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 84     IL ~ 82 to 84     KY ~ 82 to 84      TN ~ 82 to 84
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable at 5 mph.  Winds becoming north at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 30, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86    KY ~ 82 to 86     TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Wednesday into the weekend is HIGHLY dependent on where Harvey tracks.  This is an unknown wild card in the forecast.


Wednesday night:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A chance for showers.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66       TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Maybe wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 31, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain likely.  Thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84     KY ~ 78 to 84     TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds:  East at 8 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Rain likely.  Thunderstorms possible.  Windy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East and southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%    KY ~ 70%    TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

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September 1, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Windy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82     TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  South and southeast at 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph with higher gusts
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusty winds, at times
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps numerous.  The track of Harvey will be the key to this forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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September 2, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82     TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  South and southeast at 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  Scattered showers and storms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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September 3, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82     TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  Becoming north at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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September 4, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82     TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm

Monday night through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  A few storms could produce lightning on Monday night and Tuesday.  Many areas will remain dry.

The remnants of Harvey could impact our region beginning Wednesday night and lasting into Friday/Friday night.  Heavy rain is the first concern.  A secondary concern could be short lived tornadoes.

Monitor updates.

See graphics and videos here https://weathertalk.com/app/dailysummary

beausanalysis

I am on vacation this week.

Harvey is the main weather story.  The remnants of Harvey will likely push into our region later this week.

Rain could arrive as early as Wednesday night.  There is the potential for heavy rain, but it is a bit early to talk numbers.  Certainly a widespread one to two inches of rain would be expected.  Some models show greater than four inches of rain.  This will need to be monitored.

Occasionally dying tropical systems can produce short lived tornadoes.  This is not uncommon.  We will need to monitor this, as well.

For the time being, monitor updated forecasts moving forward.  Some adjustments are likely.

Full set of graphics and video click here

 

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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