Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 27, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot today and tomorrow.

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August 27, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Most likely dry.  Breezy, at times.  Heat index 98 to 104.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  High heat index values.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.  Rain chances less than 10%.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:30 PM
Moonrise:  8:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:16 AM

 

August 28, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.  Heat index 98 to 104.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  High heat index values will make it uncomfortable.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:22 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  A slight chance of late night thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Most areas will likely remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Perhaps some isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:29 PM
Moonrise:  8:58 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:14 AM

 

August 29, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 88       TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  There is a low end risk of damaging wind and nickel size hail.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:23 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 72      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some locally heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Low end risk of strong winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radars and updates.
Sunset:  7:27 PM
Moonrise:  9:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:12 AM

 

August 30, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Not as hot.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 50%      TN ~  50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.  Rain will be on radar.
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:24 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  This will depend on how far south the front pushes.  If it stalls in our area then thunderstorm chances would be higher.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:  7:26 PM
Moonrise:  9:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM

 

August 31, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:25 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  This will depend on how far south the front pushes.  If it stalls in our area then thunderstorm chances would be higher.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:  7:25 PM
Moonrise:  10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:11 AM

 

September 1, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:26 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  This will depend on how far south the front pushes.  If it stalls in our area then thunderstorm chances would be higher.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
Sunset:  7:24 PM
Moonrise:  11:10 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:16 PM

 

September 2, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:27 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
Sunset:  7:22 PM
Moonrise:  11:52 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 1:19 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the seven day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Monday morning

Click to enlarge

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Here is the 72 hour forecast.

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM Thursday

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Missouri and Illinois.

This is the 72 hour rainfall forecast.  This takes us through 7 AM Thursday

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

This is through 7 AM Thursday

 

 

 

 

I am monitoring Wednesday onward for increasing rain chances.

If the front speeds up a tad, then rain chances could arrive as early as late Tuesday night.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Wednesday through Friday:  A cold front will approach the region from the north and west.  This front will help produce showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.  There is a non-zero severe weather risk Wednesday and Thursday.  The main concern will be a few reports of strong winds.  Pea to nickel size hail, as well.

There will be plenty of moisture along the front.  PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the atmosphere) will be high.  That means locally heavy rain.  Monitor updates.

I am monitoring to see if the front becomes stationary.  If that happens, the threat of heavy rain would increase.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal (level one out of five) risk Wednesday.  The dark green is the marginal risk of severe weather.

The scale runs from one to five.  One being the lowest.

I can’t rule out a few reports of high winds and hail.  Thursday will also need to be monitored.  That risk will depend on how fast the cold front pushes southward.

The light green is sub-severe thunderstorms.

 

 

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Hot and muggy into Tuesday.
  2. A cold front arrives Wednesday and Thursday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
  3. Weekend forecast could also contain rain chances, but confidence is lower.
  4. Locally heavy rain possible in thunderstorms.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Weather Analysis and weekly outlooks

The main weather story today will be the heat and humidity (high dew-points).

Actual air temperatures will be in the lower 90’s. When you combine that with high dew points you end up with a heat index of 98 to 104 degrees.  Not all that pleasant.

You can expect the same on Tuesday.

Today’s heat index values.

 

 

A cold front will draw near to the region Wednesday and Thursday.  This front will help produce lift in the atmosphere.  That means increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the NAM 3K model guidance future-cast radar.  Notice the front to the northwest.  Watch it slide southeast.  This does not take us out far enough to show you the rain in our area.

You can see the rain approaching on Wednesday.   If we were to go past this time frame, then you would see the rain in our region.  Future runs of the NAM model will show that.  The model only goes out 60 hours.

 

 

There will be  instability and moisture to work with.  That means the threat of locally heavy downpours.  PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the atmosphere) will peak in the 1.7 to 2.00″ range.  Those are large numbers.  It means there is a plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

I am monitoring to see if the front might become stationary somewhere in the region Thursday or Thursday night.  That would keep shower chances alive.

Temperatures Wednesday onward won’t be as hot.  This will be because of cloud cover and precipitation.  It will still be warm.

 

Heat index values are on the rise today and Tuesday.  This is what your body feels.  This is important as it plays into heat related illnesses.  It doesn’t just “sound” hotter.  It actually is hotter to your body.

I am afraid that means the Grannycast is back.

 

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

Dr. David Bodine from the Advanced Radar Research Center (see link in Web sites section) in Norman, OK, is building the prototype phased-array radar. He will join us from Japan where he is working for a few months with researchers at Kyoto University. This is definitely one of the longest connections for a Guest WeatherBrain in the history of the podcast – perhaps THE longest.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 30 at 3 miles east of Agate, NE
  • Severe storms occurring in Mid-South Region
  • Tuesday severe possible western PA to northern VA
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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