Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 27, 2017 Storm chances?

Brief update.  I am traveling with my mom today!

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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HARVEY

Uncertainty surrounds the eventual path of Harvey.  Some guidance brings it into our region.  Some guidance keeps it out of our area.

I believe we will have a better handle on the forecast by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

In the meantime, monitor updates.  Rain would be the concern.  We would not experience anything like what is happening in Texas.

Monitor updates.

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August 27, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chance would be over the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.  That would be Cape Girardeau, MO towards northern Pope County, IL.  From there northward (best chance).  Areas south of there will have some chance, but not as great.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 64      IL ~ 60 to 64      KY ~ 60 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Light easterly winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps isolated late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 28, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86      KY ~ 82 to 86       TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66       TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars

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August 29, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Maybe a shower or thunderstorm scattered around.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86     KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated shower possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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August 30, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86    KY ~ 82 to 86     TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Wednesday into the weekend is HIGHLY dependent on where Harvey tracks.  This is an unknown wild card in the forecast.

Confidence is very low as to where Harvey tracks.

Wednesday night:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66       TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Maybe wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 31, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86    KY ~ 82 to 86     TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  South at 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LowSignificant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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September 1, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86    KY ~ 82 to 86     TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds:  South at 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66        KY ~ 62 to 66        TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm

Sunday night through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

I continue to monitor the tropical system moving into Texas.  Too early to know if it will impact our region with rain showers.

beausanalysis

I am on vacation this week.  Updates will be limited, unless something significant develops.

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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