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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 25, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds, then mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Light northeast winds at 5 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 26, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 27, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 86 TN ~ 84 to 86
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Light easterly winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 28, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A good chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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August 29, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Thunder possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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August 30, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Wednesday into the weekend is HIGHLY dependent on where Harvey tracks. This is an unknown wild card in the forecast.
Confidence is very low as to where Harvey tracks.
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 31, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm
Friday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night through Wednesday of next week: A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday night into Monday. Tuesday may also have some spotty showers and storms, but confidence on Tuesday is rather low.
I continue to monitor the tropical system moving into Texas. Too early to know if it will impact our region with rain showers.
Wow. That is all I can say about this amazing weather. Isn’t it beautiful? Personally, this is my kind of weather. This and snow.
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Temperatures over the coming days will remain in the nice category (esp considering we are in the heart of August).
You can expect highs mostly in the lower to middle 80’s. You can expect lows in the upper 50’s to middle 60’s.
Dew points will remain below the oppressive levels. We will see dew points rise just a tad on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. This is especially true for Sunday afternoon into Monday night.
The reason for the increasing moisture levels will be a storm system to our north that will drag a front into our region Sunday night and Monday. This front will help trigger a band of showers and thunderstorms.
At this time, it still appears that some areas may miss out on measurable rainfall. Hoping for more coverage. We need rain.
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Notice higher readings to our north and northwest. Those are pooling ahead of the frontal boundary that will shift southward with time.
Monday dew points are a bit higher ahead of the shortwave/frontal boundary.
A frontal system/shortwave will push into our region Sunday night and Monday. This front will have some moisture to work with. Expect a band of showers and thunderstorms along the front. This would be moving in from the north. The best chance of rain may hold off until late Sunday night and Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday have rain showers in the forecast, but confidence is lower.
The shortwave responsible for our rain chances should move along at a decent pace. I did note some models lingering rain chances into Tuesday and Wednesday. Other models are dry.
For now, I have smaller rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Here are three models. Each has a different opinion on rainfall totals.
Again, I am leaning 0.00″ to 0.40″ Sunday night into Tuesday.
GFS
NAM (this only goes out to 7 am on Monday) Keep that in mind.
Canadian model
HARVEY
There is absolutely NO confidence that Harvey will impact our region. Confidence, in the long range forecast, is very low.
I continue to monitor Harvey. Model guidance is useless. The slow moving tropical storm will move into Texas over the coming 48 hours. This system will spread heavy rain into eastern Texas. Some locations will pick up ten to twenty inches of rain. Needless to say, this will cause life threatening flash flooding.
Click here to view amazing satellite imagery
IR satellite view
Visible
The system will then slowly meander around eastern Texas. Some of the guidance picks the system up and moves it east/northeast into Arkansas and Louisiana. A trough to our north could pull the system north and northeast. Confidence on this happening, however, is very low.
If the system were to impact our region, then we would see an increasing chance of rain later next week. The timing of the system is impossible to forecast this far out. We don’t even know if the system will be pulled into our region. Monitor updates.
Most guidance would not bring it into our local region until Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Again, no way of knowing this, yet.
The GFS ensembles. These are the same model slides, but each run is slightly tweaked. The more squares that agree with each other, the more likely the scenario is to happen. Quite a few of them bringing the system into our region. Something worth monitoring.
Each of these squares is one model run. All of these together are called ensembles. They run each model run slightly different than the previous. The more that agree the higher the probability of the eventual outcome. In theory, at least.
The GFS attempts to bring Harvey into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A few runs bring it into our region. Many do not.
Click to enlarge
Is the GFS mean. All the ensembles brought together. It does bring the rain into our region.
The EC, on the other hand, keeps the system mostly to our south and southeast.
Click to enlarge.
EC is all over the place. Some model runs bring it into our region. Some show us completely dry. No confidence, at all.
Bottom line:
The eventual track of Harvey is unknown. I continue to monitor trends. We have a long way to go before confidence grows as to the eventual outcome.
Temperature Forecast
Saturday highs
Sunday highs
GFS may be a bit too warm. Middle 80’s appear likely. I guess a few upper 80’s can’t be ruled out. Part of that will depend on clouds.
Monday high temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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