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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 24, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening cirrus clouds. Becoming partly cloudy and then clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 o 62
Winds: Light from the north and northeast
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 25, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds as a weak system passes through the area. High cirrus clouds again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 82 IL ~ 78 to 82 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds, then mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Light northeast winds at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 26, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 27, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Mild. Some increase in clouds late in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 86 TN ~ 84 to 86
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance for a few showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 28, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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August 29, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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August 30, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~78 to 84 TN ~78 to 84
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm
Thursday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Wednesday of next week: A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday night into Monday. Tuesday may also have some spotty showers and storms, but confidence on Tuesday is rather low.
I continue to monitor the tropical system moving into Texas. Too early to know if it will impact our region with rain showers.
There are a lot of graphics today.
The weather has been nice over the last 24 hours. Low dew points and nice temperatures. Could not ask for better weather during the Month of August. I am loving it.
The weather will continue to be nice through Sunday. Dew points will increase a bit on Sunday and Monday, but not oppressive. Temperatures will remain below normal through Sunday.
High pressure, located to our east, will be in firm control of our weather. Sinking air is helping to squash most of the clouds. The high will continue to dominate into the weekend.
This has also helped to keep our dew points lower. Remember, dew points are what control how you feel outside (some consider humidity to be the main factor). Dew points are a better way of measuring moisture in the atmosphere.
Friday dew points. Dew points in the 50’s are considered nice. Once you start talking about 65 to 70 it becomes humid.
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Monday dew points are a bit higher ahead of the shortwave/frontal boundary.
The GFS model is showing mid to upper 80’s on Sunday, but I think it is overdoing it. I will monitor trends. Either way, a slow warming trend is likely over the weekend.
A frontal system/shortwave will push into our region Sunday night and Monday. This front will have some moisture to work with. Expect a band of showers and thunderstorms along the front. This would be moving in from the north. The best chance of rain may hold off until late Sunday night and Monday.
Monday night and Tuesday have rain showers in the forecast, but confidence is lower.
The shortwave responsible for our rain chances should move along at a decent pace. I did note some models lingering rain chances into Tuesday and Wednesday. Other models are dry.
For now, I have smaller rain chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Here is what the GFS model is showing for rainfall totals Sunday night into Tuesday.
Confidence on totals is still rather low.
I continue to monitor Harvey. Model guidance is useless. The slow moving tropical storm will move into Texas over the coming 48 hours. This system will spread heavy rain into eastern Texas. Some locations will pick up ten to twenty inches of rain. Needless to say, this will cause life threatening flash flooding.
The system will then slowly meander around eastern Texas. Some of the guidance picks the system up and moves it east/northeast into Arkansas and Louisiana. A trough to our north could pull the system north and northeast. Confidence on this happening, however, is very low.
If the system were to impact our region, then we would see an increasing chance of rain later next week. The timing of the system is impossible to forecast this far out. We don’t even know if the system will be pulled into our region. Monitor updates.
Most guidance would not bring it into our local region until Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Again, no way of knowing this, yet.
Here is the Thursday afternoon satellite view of Harvey. You can see the swirling bands.
Here is a visible satellite image
Here are the model tracks. They are clustered fairly close together. This would bring Harvey into the southeast coast of Texas.
The GFS model brings it ashore over the coming days.
The black lines are equal lines of pressure. The middle of those would be the center of the system. You can see it there in extreme southern Texas.
Notice the GFS then shifts it into Louisiana by next week (late according to the GFS)
The GFS then pulls it northward around September 2nd. One models opinion.
The EC guidance (another model) brings it into the southeast coast of Texas by Saturday and Sunday.
EC then brings it into Louisiana by Wednesday of next week. See the closely packed black lines? Those are isobars. Equal lines of pressure. Tightly packed pressure lines would mean strong and gusty winds. Heavy rain.
The EC then brings it into our region by next Thursday. Heavy rain would be the end result. One models opinion.
The GFS ensembles. These are the same model slides, but each run is slightly tweaked. The more squares that agree with each other, the more likely the scenario is to happen. Quite a few of them bringing the system into our region. Something worth monitoring.
Is the GFS mean. All the ensembles brought together. It does bring the rain into our region.
The EC, on the other hand, keeps the system mostly to our south and southeast.
Here is the EC mean.
Temperature Forecast
Friday highs
Saturday lows
Saturday highs
Sunday lows
Sunday highs
GFS may be a bit too warm. This is what it is showing.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
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