Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 24, 2018: Non-subscriber WeatherTalk update.

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August 24, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  More humid.  A chance of  showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chance across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser chances elsewhere.  There could be a line of dying showers and storms move across much of the area.  Again, chances are greater over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78    IL ~ 74 to 78      KY ~ 75 to 80      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~  60%    IL ~ 60%      KY ~ 40%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Most numerous over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser coverage as you move towards Kentucky and Tennessee.
Wind: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Yes, showers and thunderstorms are likely in the region.
UV Index: 4 to 6 with clouds (higher if we have a bit more sun than anticipated)
Sunrise:  6:19 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some clouds.  Warmer.  More humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68      IL ~ 66 to 68       KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:34 PM
Moonrise:  6:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:27 AM

 

August 25, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms possible.  Warmer and more humid.  Greatest rain chances may end up being over southern Illinois (esp as you travel northward).
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 94      KY ~ 88 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:20 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm and humid.  A slight chance of a stray thunderstorm.  Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:   None to isolated.
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16  mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:33 PM
Moonrise:  7:23 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:22 AM

 

August 26, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  Most likely it will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads and lightning in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm.  Humid.  A slight chance of an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:32 PM
Moonrise:  7:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:19 AM

 

 

August 27, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Most likely dry.  Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.  Rain chances less than 10%.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:30 PM
Moonrise:  8:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:16 AM

 

August 28, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:22 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Warm.  Humid.  A slight chance of late night thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Most areas will likely remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Perhaps some isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:29 PM
Moonrise:  8:58 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:14 AM

 

August 29, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 88       TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some downpours possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  There is a low end risk of damaging wind and nickel size hail.  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:23 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 72      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some locally heavy rain possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Low end risk of strong winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radars and updates.
Sunset:  7:27 PM
Moonrise:  9:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:12 AM

 

August 30, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Not as hot.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85       KY ~ 83 to 86       TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 50%      TN ~  50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.  Rain will be on radar.
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:24 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  This will depend on how far south the front pushes.  If it stalls in our area then thunderstorm chances would be higher.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:  7:26 PM
Moonrise:  9:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the seven day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Friday morning

Click to enlarge

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Here is the 72 hour forecast.

Notice the sharp gradient.  Most of this falls today and tonight.  Smaller chances Saturday.  Monitoring Sunday’s forecast for a few storms now, as well.

Greatest totals will be over our northern counties.  Portions of Kentucky and Tennessee may not receive any measurable rain.

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Missouri and Illinois.

This is the 72 hour rainfall forecast.  Again, most of this falls today into early tomorrow morning.

The southern end is in question.

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

Again, the southern end of the rain shield is questionable.  Some of us will receive no measurable rain.

I am closely monitoring Sunday’s weather.  I added thunderstorms back into the forecast.  This graphic below may need updating if those storms form.

 

 

Here is the NAM 3K model guidance rain totals forecast.

NAM is certainly bullish on rain totals across portions of the area.  Notice the heaviest totals are north vs south.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

Here is the GFS model (another model) through 7 PM Sunday

Again, same theme.  Heaviest totals west and north vs south and east.

Click to enlarge

 

 

I increased rain chances late tonight and especially Friday.  Greatest coverage will be north and west of the Ohio River.

The 60% chance will be Missouri and Illinois.

Chances diminish the further south you travel.  Lowest chances will be across the Missouri Bootheel into portions of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Friday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.   We will have a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today into Saturday morning.  Greatest coverage will be over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border).

I have added a few storms into Sunday’s forecast.  Locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind would be the concern (if those do indeed form).

Rain chances may ramp up again around Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front nears the area.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Clouds today with some showers and thunderstorms in the region.  Check the local view-view radars.
  2. Rain chances will linger into Saturday morning (esp over our northern counties).
  3. Hot and muggy weather returns for the weekend into next week.
  4. A cold front Wednesday/Thursday should deliver another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

 

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WEATHER ANALYSIS

Today’s big weather story will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.  A wide range of rain totals are anticipated.

Radars

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

Morning radar (at 9 am) showers the precipitation.

This is moving mostly off to the east and a little southeast.

 

 

Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar forecast from the Hrrr model.  This is a high resolution model.  It is just a model, so it won’t be exact.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left.

Click to enlarge

The southern end of this may be overdone.  Keep that in mind.

 

 

Let’s look at the high resolution NAM 3K model

Notice the first band of rain today and then a second one later tonight into early Saturday morning.

Notice the placement of the precipitation.

Again, this won’t be exact and the southern end may be overdone.

Click to enlarge.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

 

 

Portions of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois may receive 0.50″ to 1.0″ of rain over the next 48 hours.  Meanwhile, portions of the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee may end up with less than 0.25″.  It is not out of the question that some areas will receive no measurable rain.

Locally heavier totals are possible, especially across northern portions of southern Illinois.

The greatest lift will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  This is where shower and thunderstorm activity will be most numerous.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Rain chances will linger into tonight as another band of precipitation attempts to move into our region from the west/northwest.  This band of showers and thunderstorms will linger into Saturday morning across northern portions of southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky.

Elsewhere, the rain chances will be lower.

We will notice a warming trend Saturday as temperatures move back towards the upper 80’s.  Dew points will also be on the rise.  It will begin to feel muggy.  August weather.

The heat returns in full force Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  Daily high temperatures will rise into the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.  This is actually near normal.  Dew points will be above normal.  That means muggy weather.

I am monitoring Sunday’s thunderstorm chances.  There has been an uptick in guidance activity.

I am monitoring another cold front around next Wednesday or Thursday.  Timing differences in the guidance are not giving me much confidence in the exact timing of the greatest rain chances.  For now, I have the greatest rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.  I have kept them around 30%.  Those will rise as confidence in the overall forecast increases.

The GFS model guidance is showing a series of disturbances moving into our region by mid to late week.

This is something we will need to keep an eye on.  Many of us still need rain.  Plenty of time to monitor this portion of the forecast.

The GFS resolution is not as high as the NAM model guidance.

That means that it makes the rain look more widespread than it actually is.  Keep that in mind, please.

Click to enlarge.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

 

 

 

Heat index values will also rise.  This is what your body feels.  This is important as it plays into heat related illnesses.  It doesn’t just “sound” hotter.  It actually is hotter to your body.

I am afraid that means the Grannycast is back.

 

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

Dr. David Bodine from the Advanced Radar Research Center (see link in Web sites section) in Norman, OK, is building the prototype phased-array radar. He will join us from Japan where he is working for a few months with researchers at Kyoto University. This is definitely one of the longest connections for a Guest WeatherBrain in the history of the podcast – perhaps THE longest.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 30 at 3 miles east of Agate, NE
  • Severe storms occurring in Mid-South Region
  • Tuesday severe possible western PA to northern VA
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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