Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 23, 2018: Non-subscriber WeatherTalk update.

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August 23, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.  Some high clouds moving in during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82      KY ~78 to 82      TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High during the morning.  Medium during the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:18 AM

 

I updated the daily forecast.  I increased wind speeds over the coming days.

I increased rain chances a bit, as well.

Some question on Saturday’s rain chances.  A few lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially over our northern counties.  Northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser chances elsewhere.

I also freshened up the Tuesday into Thursday part of the forecast.

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers, especially over northern and western parts of southeast Missouri and southwest portions of southern Illinois.  Smaller chances elsewhere.  Cool.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% late    IL ~ 30%      KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered to scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roads possible.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:36 PM
Moonrise:  6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

 

August 24, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Warmer.  More humid.  A chance of  showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chance across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser chances elsewhere.  There could be a line of dying showers and storms move across much of the area.  Again, chances are greater over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78    IL ~ 74 to 78      KY ~ 75 to 80      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~  60%    IL ~ 60%      KY ~ 40%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Most numerous over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser coverage as you move towards Kentucky and Tennessee.
Wind: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  There will be some showers and thunderstorms in the region.
UV Index: 4 to 6 with clouds (higher if we have a bit more sun than anticipated)
Sunrise:  6:19 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some clouds.  Warmer.  More humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68      IL ~ 66 to 68       KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:34 PM
Moonrise:  6:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:27 AM

 

August 25, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms possible.  Warmer and more humid.  Greatest rain chances may end up being over southern Illinois (esp as you travel northward).
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:20 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of  an evening thunderstorm.  Warmer.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16  mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:33 PM
Moonrise:  7:23 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:22 AM

 

August 26, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Hot and muggy.  Some of the guidance brings a few thunderstorms into the region.  Let’s keep an eye on it.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Monitor
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:32 PM
Moonrise:  7:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:19 AM

 

August 27, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.  An evening storm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:30 PM
Moonrise:  8:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:16 AM

 

August 28, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:22 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none. Perhaps isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:29 PM
Moonrise:  8:58 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:14 AM

 

August 29, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind: Southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 118
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:23 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm again possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset:  7:27 PM
Moonrise:  9:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:12 AM

 

August 30, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm again possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:24 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm again possible.  Warm and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset:  7:26 PM
Moonrise:  9:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72 hour rainfall totals forecast.  This takes us into Saturday morning.

There is a chance of some measurable precipitation Thursday night into Friday night (perhaps Saturday morning)

Click to enlarge

.

 

Here is the NAM model guidance rain totals forecast.

NAM is certainly bullish on rain totals.

Click to enlarge.  Most of this falls tonight into Friday evening.

 

 

Here is the GFS model (another model)

 

 

I increased rain chances late tonight and especially Friday.  Greatest coverage will be north and west of the Ohio River.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Thursday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.   We will have a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.  A warm front will pass through the region.

A couple of thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into Sunday, as well.  I did increase the rain chances a bit.

It appears rain chances will be at or less than 20% Sunday through Wednesday.

I am monitoring a system Monday.  That one would be more likely to produce a few showers and storms across western Kentucky and western Tennessee.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Nice day ahead.
  2. Increasing high clouds late today.
  3. I did increase rain probabilities tonight and Friday.  Coverage may be more than anticipated a few days ago.
  4. Severe weather is not anticipated.
  5. Hot and muggy returns Saturday into most (if not all) of next week
  6. I am monitoring a disturbance that could bring a few more showers to the region on Monday.

 

It was cool this morning.  Widespread 50’s blanketed the region.  There were even some lower 50’s across some of my forecast counties.  Nice!  Many of you probably slept with your windows open.

Here is a graphic showing you the 5 AM temperatures.  Fallish.

 

The jet stream has taken a dive from the northwest to the southeast.  This has helped us in the temperature department.

Here is an interesting graphic.  This graphic shows you smoke.  You can also tell where the jet stream is located based on smoke movement.

This smoke is from the forecast fires out west.  This is one reason we have experienced some amazing sun-sets of late.

 

 

I hope everyone can enjoy today.  It is going to be beautiful.  Nice temperatures.  Nice dew points.  Nice feel to the atmosphere.  An A+ day is on top for the region.

The forecast is going to take a bit of turn beginning tonight and continuing into much of next week.

First, I have increased rain chances further south and southeast for tonight and tomorrow.

You can see on this morning’s radar that showers and thunderstorms are increasing well to our west.  This is the first sign of weather changes.

 

 

A storm system will approach the region from the west late today into tonight/Friday.  This disturbance will produce showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

Friday will deliver the greatest rain coverage.  This is especially true across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

There remain some questions on amounts.  WPC rainfall totals (maps above) are bullish across at least half of the region.  Highest totals across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser totals as you move south and southeast.

Some areas could pick up more than 0.50″ of rain.  Don’t be surprised if not rain occurs across portions of the Missouri Bootheel, portions of western Kentucky, and portions of northwest Tennessee.  Certainly, rain chances are less there than other areas.

Let’s take a look at the NAM model guidance.  This is the future-cast radar.  What radar might look through 7 AM Saturday.  This won’t be exact, of course.  Take the general idea from it.

NAM is bullish on rain coverage.  The time-stamp is located in the upper left.

It shows several waves of rain pushing across the region.  Again, more to the north vs south.

 

 

The SPC WRF (another model).

Click image to enlarge

 

 

Rain chances decrease as we move into Saturday and Sunday.  Perhaps a few showers or storms will dot radar during this time frame.  Most of the area will be dry.

I am also monitoring a system coming in from the south on Monday.  That one would be more likely to bring a few showers or thunderstorms to western Kentucky and western Tennessee.  Confidence is low on the eventual outcome of the Monday system.  I am monitoring trends.

The GFS model ensembles show some rain in the region Monday.

Each of these is one model run of the GFS.  Confidence increase when more of the squares agree with each other.

The coverage won’t be this great, but the main idea is that there could be some showers and thunderstorms Monday.

Notice how the green is mostly over Kentucky and Tennessee.  At this point, chances of rain appear fairly low.  Again, I will monitor trends.

 

 

The next big change in the weather will be temperatures.  Last night and today will feel great when compared to what is coming.

A wave of heat will overspread the region Saturday and Sunday.  Temperatures will begin to head towards 90 degrees (and perhaps a bit above).  Dew points will rise, as well.  That means it will feel muggy, yet again.  Summer is definitely is not over.  After all, it is still August.

The heat will continue into next week.  You can expect daily high temperatures to flirt with 90 degrees.  Heat index values will rise into the upper 90’s to around 100 degrees.

 

Check out this morning’s temperature anomaly map.  How many degrees above or below normal were temperatures?

Obviously, we were cooler than normal this morning.

 

 

Now, compare that to Monday’s temperature anomaly forecast.  Warmer.

 

 

Heat index values will also rise.  This is what your body feels.  This is important as it plays into heat related illnesses.  It doesn’t just “sound” hotter.  It actually is hotter to your body.

I am afraid that means the Grannycast is back.

 

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

Dr. David Bodine from the Advanced Radar Research Center (see link in Web sites section) in Norman, OK, is building the prototype phased-array radar. He will join us from Japan where he is working for a few months with researchers at Kyoto University. This is definitely one of the longest connections for a Guest WeatherBrain in the history of the podcast – perhaps THE longest.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 30 at 3 miles east of Agate, NE
  • Severe storms occurring in Mid-South Region
  • Tuesday severe possible western PA to northern VA
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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