Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 22nd and 23rd. Below normal temperatures are on the way. Tropics?

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 22, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east.  Some storms could be intense during the evening hours.  Some clearing possible late.  Patchy fog if we clear out.  Cooler.  Less humid as the night wears on.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 56 to 64        IL ~ 56 to 62       KY ~ 60 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 44
Winds: West winds becoming northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning early.  Evening strong storms possible, but it appears everything will be on the way out of the area fairly early in the evening.  Damaging wind would be the concern with the most intense cells.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  Strong storms are possible early.  Monitor warnings (if issued)
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.  Storms are possible.
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August 23, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy fog early.  A few passing clouds.  Cooler.  Less humid.  Nice.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~78 to 82     TN ~78 to 82
Winds:  Northerly winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Perhaps morning patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated.  Tiny chance for a shower.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing and cooler.  Less humid.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Northerly winds 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Patchy fog perhaps.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 24, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.  Not as humid as earlier in the week.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~78 to 82     TN ~78 to 82
Winds:  North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog.  Cool.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Light from the north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 25, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84     KY ~78 to 84     TN ~78 to 84
Winds:  East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds:  Light from the east less than 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 26, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84     KY ~78 to 84     TN ~78 to 84
Winds:  Northeast and east at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Northeast and east at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 27, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85     KY ~80 to 85     TN ~80 to 85
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated, at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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August 28, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Some clouds.  A chance for a shower.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85     KY ~80 to 85     TN ~80 to 85
Winds:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm

Tuesday night: A few evening thunderstorms could produce high winds.  Most of the activity should be waning.

Wednesday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday through Wednesday of next week:  I will be monitoring a possible tropical system moving into the Mississippi Valley.  Too far out for details on track and impacts.  Monitor updates.

 

beausanalysis

I hope all of you were able to enjoy the eclipse.  Some had clouds.  Some had sun.  Some had both.  Luck of the draw as to who ended up under a cloud.

It was certainly spectacular here at the Weather Observatory in northern Massac County, Illinois.

A cold front will move through our region over the coming hours (Tuesday night).  This front will usher in cooler temperatures and lower dew points.  A nice combination for those who are tired of the last few days.

Rain will end on Tuesday night.  It will be dry through Sunday.  Yes, we still need rain.   We are in a short term drought situation.

Precipitation needed to end drought

Temperatures Wednesday through Sunday should average below to well below normal.  Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 86 degrees.  Highs through Sunday will likely remain in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.  Overnight lows will dip into the 56 to 64 degree range.  Low dew points.  Nice air.

I am closely monitoring a potential tropical system that should impact Texas later this week.  Questions then turn towards where it moves after landfall.  It is possible that portions of the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valley’s will have to deal with the remnants of this system.

Heavy rain would be the concern.  Occasionally you can have short lived tornadoes along a weakening tropical systems path.  It is too early to know if this system will deliver much needed rainfall into our local area.  It is worth monitor as some of the data does show it moving in or near our region.

Let’s take a look at some maps.

Temperatures over the coming days and then dew points.  Click on the image to enlarge.

Lows on Wednesday

Highs on Wednesday

Thursday lows

Thursday highs

Friday lows

Friday highs

 

Wednesday dew points at 7 am

Notice the nicer air rushing into the area from the north.

Thursday dew points

Friday dew points

Enjoy the nicer weather!

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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