Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 22, 2018: Non-subscription WeatherTalk blog update.

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August 22, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Mostly sunny.  Some patchy fair-weather cumulus clouds may develop.  Cooler and less humid.  Pleasant day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82      KY ~ 78 to 82      TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:17 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 53 to 56      IL ~ 53 to 56       KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 58 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:37 PM
Moonrise:  5:26 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:43 AM

 

August 23, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.  Some high clouds moving in during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82      KY ~78 to 82      TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High during the morning.  Medium during the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:18 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers, especially over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Smaller chances elsewhere.  Cool.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%  (40% northern counties)    IL ~ 30% (40% northern counties)       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered to scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roads possible.  Lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:36 PM
Moonrise:  6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

 

August 24, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warmer.  More humid.  A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chances will be across northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Lesser chances elsewhere.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 82 to 85      TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%  (40% northern counties)    IL ~ 30%  (40% northern counties)      KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:19 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some clouds.  Warmer.  More humid.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest coverage again will be over our northern counties.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68      IL ~ 66 to 68       KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% (40% northern counties)     IL ~ 30%  (40% northern counties)     KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:34 PM
Moonrise:  6:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:27 AM

 

August 25, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a few thunderstorms possible (mainly early).  Warmer and more humid.  Best chances of storms will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  The further north you go the greater the chance of some scattered storms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:20 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of  an evening thunderstorm.  Warmer.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:33 PM
Moonrise:  7:23 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:22 AM

 

August 26, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Hot and muggy.  Some of the guidance brings a few thunderstorms into the region.  Let’s keep an eye on it.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Monitor
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Monitor
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:32 PM
Moonrise:  7:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:19 AM

 

August 27, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92       TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:21 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:30 PM
Moonrise:  8:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:16 AM

 

August 28, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:22 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:29 PM
Moonrise:  8:58 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:14 AM

 

August 29, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:23 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:27 PM
Moonrise:  9:28 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:12 AM

 

August 30, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few cumulus clouds.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 94     IL ~ 90 to 94       KY ~ 90 to 94       TN ~ 90 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:24 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm. Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:26 PM
Moonrise:  9:59 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:11 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72 hour rainfall totals forecast.  This takes us into Saturday morning.

There is a chance of some measurable precipitation Thursday night into Friday night (perhaps Saturday morning)

Click to enlarge

 

 

Zoomed in on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This is the WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday

 

 

Zoomed in on the rest of the area.  This is through 7 AM Saturday

WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast

 

 

This is the GFS model guidance rainfall forecast through Saturday 7 AM

 

 

This is the EC model guidance rainfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Wednesday through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.   We will have a chance for a few widely scattered thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.  A warm front will pass through the region.

A couple of thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into Saturday, as well.  Many areas will remain dry.

It appears rain chances will be at or less than 20% Sunday through Wednesday.

I am monitoring Saturday night and Sunday.  A couple of models do show a few storms trying to push into the region from the northwest.  Confidence on this happening is low.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Nice day ahead.
  2. Cool tonight and Thursday night
  3. A few showers or storms possible Thursday into Friday
  4. Small thunderstorm chances Saturday
  5. Hot and muggy returns Saturday into most (if not all) of next week

 

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WEATHER ANALYSIS

The big weather story today into tomorrow will be the nice feel to the atmosphere.

Temperatures will be in the 70’s and lower 80’s.  Overnight lows will dip into the 50’s!  It will feel a bit like fall.  Don’t be spoiled by this.  It is not going to last.

A warm front will live through the region Thursday and Thursday night.  A few showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the warm front.  These storms are not anticipated to be severe.

A few thunderstorms may linger into Friday and Saturday.   The greatest chance for measurable precipitation will be across northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.

Elsewhere, rain chances will be less.  Many could still use some rain.

A couple of models try to bring storms back into the region late Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Confidence on this happening is low.

The next big weather story will be the heat wave.

A heat wave is forecast to develop Saturday and Sunday and last into most of next week.  It may last all of next week.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s on Saturday and then in the 90’s Sunday into next week.

Dew points will return to the upper 60’s to middle 70’s, as well.  It is going to feel like the dead of summer.

I suppose our few nice days should be savored.

Let’s look at some high temperature forecast numbers.

These are SIX hour high temperatures for each of the given days.

Ignore the time stamps.  These are the expected daily highs (GFS model guidance)

 

Saturday, August 25th

 

 

Sunday

 

 

Monday

 

 

Tuesday, August 28th

 

 

Wednesday

 

 

Thursday

 

 

Friday, September 1st

 

 

Saturday

 

 

Sunday

 

 

Monday, September 3rd

 

 

Tuesday, September 4th

 

 

Heat index values will also rise.  This is what your body feels.  This is important as it plays into heat related illnesses.  It doesn’t just “sound” hotter.  It actually is hotter to your body.

I am afraid that means the Grannycast is back.

 

 

Sunday heat index

 

 

Monday heat index

 

 

Tuesday heat index

 

 

 

Dew points will increase this weekend, as well.  Higher dew points will mean a humid feel to the air.

Let’s take a look at the dew point numbers.

Click images on this page to enlarge.

 

 

These were the dew points Monday evening.  Humid!

 

 

Thursday 1 p.m. dew points.  Much nicer.

 

 

Friday 7 a.m. dew points

 

 

Saturday 1 p.m. dew points.  They are moving back into the muggy category.  I guess it was nice while it lasted.

 

 

Sunday 1 p.m. dew point forecast

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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.
The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

.

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

Dr. David Bodine from the Advanced Radar Research Center (see link in Web sites section) in Norman, OK, is building the prototype phased-array radar. He will join us from Japan where he is working for a few months with researchers at Kyoto University. This is definitely one of the longest connections for a Guest WeatherBrain in the history of the podcast – perhaps THE longest.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 30 at 3 miles east of Agate, NE
  • Severe storms occurring in Mid-South Region
  • Tuesday severe possible western PA to northern VA
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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