Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 18, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Monitor thunderstorm chances.

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August 20, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Thunderstorms redeveloping this afternoon and evening.  Some of the storms could become severe with damaging wind, hail, and even isolated tornadoes.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 82 to 85      TN ~ 82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%      TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (redeveloping this afternoon and evening)
Wind:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  A few severe storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Severe thunderstorms are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium/high (depends on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a period of showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front.  Locally heavy rain and locally severe storms.  Showers and thunderstorms tapering off as we move  through the night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~60%       KY ~60%      TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: A period of numerous showers and thunderstorms (mostly early in the night)
Wind: West and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few severe storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could be severe early in the night with gusty winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  7:40 PM
Moonrise:  3:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:12 AM

August 21, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.  Tuesday may end up dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% to 20%     IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~ 10% to 20%      TN ~  10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind:  Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts (esp over southern Illinois and western Kentucky)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:16 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few clouds.  Patchy dense fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 60 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 16 mph early in the night
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:38 PM
Moonrise:  4:39 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

August 22, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Some morning clouds.  Cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 80 to 84      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility in areas with fog
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:17 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 62      IL ~ 56 to 62       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:37 PM
Moonrise:  5:26 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:43 AM

 

August 23, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:18 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:36 PM
Moonrise:  6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

 

August 24, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 80 to 84      TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:19 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 67      IL ~ 63 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:34 PM
Moonrise:  6:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:27 AM

 

August 25, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Warmer and a bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:20AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 67      IL ~ 63 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:33 PM
Moonrise:  7:23 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:22 AM

 

August 26, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none, but monitor updates
Wind: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:20AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66      IL ~ 63 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:31 PM
Moonrise:  7:57 PM Full
Moonset: 6:19 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

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Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the seven day rainfall forecast through 7 AM Monday

 

 

Here is the 72 hour rainfall forecast through 7 AM Thursday (most of this falls today and tonight)

 

 

Let’s zoom in a bit

KEEP IN MIND, this is broad-brushed by the WPC/NOAA

This is for today through tomorrow.

Let’s hope some of this verifies.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

This is Missouri and Illinois centered

 

 

Kentucky and Tennessee centered

 

 

 

The higher chances of rain will be this afternoon and tonight.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Monday through Monday night: Severe thunderstorms are possible today and this evening.  Some of the storms could produce damaging wind gusts, nickel size hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.  An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

Severe weather will be highly dependent on some clouds clearing today.  If thick clouds remain, then that would mean less instability.  Less instability would keep the severe weather risk lower.  Monitor updates today and this evening.

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a level one, two, and three zone.

One being lowest.  Three being the highest (on this map).

The orange is the greatest risk zone.  Keep in mind, it only takes one severe thunderstorm to ruin the day.

The brunt of this will be this afternoon and tonight.

Don’t focus too much on the colors.

 

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Strong thunderstorms possible today and tonight.
  2. Calm weather Tuesday into Friday.
  3. Cooler and less humid Tuesday into Friday.
  4. Warm weekend forecast

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The Weather Story

The main weather story will be thunderstorms today into this evening.  Then, calm weather will prevail.

We had locally heavy storms move across the region earlier this morning.  Those have since moved on off to the northeast.  Some of you picked up 0.50″ of rain and others received nothing.  Seems to be the going theme of late.

Additional showers and thunderstorms should redevelop this afternoon and evening.

Some of the thunderstorms today could become severe with damaging wind, nickel size hail, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and perhaps even an isolated tornado.

The severe weather risk is highly dependent on the atmosphere recovering.  Recovering means becoming unstable again.  Clouds and storms stabilize the atmosphere.  Thus, it takes time to re-charge.

Here is the latest Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar.  This is what radar might look like later today.  Note, the time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

You can see a line of severe thunderstorms reforming during the afternoon hours.  The line then tracks eastward.

This is the line that could cause headaches later today.

 

 

A cold front will pass through the region later this evening into tonight.  That will set the stage for nicer weather conditions.

The weather will calm by Tuesday.  That calm weather will last into at least Friday!  Temperatures will be cooler this week and it will be less humid.

Many of you still need rain.  Unfortunately, if you miss out on today/tonight’s rain, then you may have to wait awhile.

Let’s take a look at some of the severe weather parameters for today’s possible event.

CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms tap into CAPE.  Higher CAPE numbers typically mean a greater risk of severe weather.

The SPC WRF model shows some instability this afternoon.  These numbers aren’t all that high.  They would, however, be sufficient enough for severe storms.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Here are the SPC WRF CAPE forecast numbers  The time stamp is located in the upper left hand corner of the animation.

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
.

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

First glance at fall!

 

These products are for subscribers.
 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 656

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain served for nearly 30 years in Emergency Management in Alabama including stints under five governors. He served on the cabinets of two Alabama governors. For nearly seven years, he was the Director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency. Today, he is the Managing Partner at Blue Skies Business Group.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 33 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Disturbed area in North Atlantic not expected to develop
  • SPC has only marginal risk areas next two days
  • Still hot in Southwest US
  • Trough still along East Coast
  • Heavy rain NY and PA today
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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