Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 17th and 18, 2017: Warm days ahead, then cooler.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 17, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds the first half of the night and then some clearing.  Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will come to an end as the night wears on.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 63 to 68        IL ~ 63 to 68        KY ~ 63 to 68       TN ~ 63 to 68
Winds: Evening winds from the south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest overnight at speeds of 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways early.  Lightning early.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered early, but ending as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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August 18, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88       TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68        IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Some fog can’t be ruled out.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None for most of the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 19, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.  A bit warmer.  A bit more humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds mostly southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy during the evening, then clearing.  An evening shower or thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72        IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy dense fog possible.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated early
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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August 20, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Humid.  Warm.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90    IL ~ 85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds mostly southeast and south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Fog possible.  A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70        IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Light and variable <8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 21, 2017
Eclipse Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Hot.  Humid.  Cirrus clouds possible.  Not sure on how much coverage.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90        TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps isolated to scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20% to 30%    IL ~ 20% to 30%    KY ~ 20% to 30%    TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and updated forecast numbers.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74        IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 22, 2017
Tues
day Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and updated forecast numbers.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74        IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check back for updated forecast numbers.
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August 23, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Some clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85     KY ~80 to 85     TN ~80 to 85
Winds:  Northerly winds at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds.  A chance for showers.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Northerly winds 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Thursday night through next Wednesday:  A few remaining storms possible on Thursday evening, but precipitation should be winding down

Severe Weather Graphic for Friday through next Thursday

Isolated storms possible Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.  Lightning would be the main concern.

I will be monitoring a new cold front on Tuesday/Tuesday night.  That front could bring organized storms back into the area.

beausanalysis

The weekend is upon us.  I do have some good news for Friday.  The cold front that will be moving through the region on Thursday afternoon/evening will mean somewhat lower dew points for Friday and Friday night.  What does that mean?  It will feel just a little bit nicer outside.

Rain chances will diminish on Thursday evening.  They may linger longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Friday and Friday night are shaping up to be dry.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms possible on Saturday into Sunday afternoon.  Most areas should remain dry, but a couple of locations may pick up a hefty thunderstorm.

Eclipse (see further down in the blog for more details)

Monday will be warm and muggy.  Dew points bounce back into the oppressive territory.

Temperatures will rise into the middle 80’s before the eclipse.  I can’t rule out upper 80’s, but with the eclipse temperatures will drop.  Either way, it will be warm and humid.

A weak disturbance will be moving into the region from the west.  This could mean a few showers or even thunderstorms.  Confidence on coverage is low.  I continue to include a 20% to 30% for showers and thunderstorms.

Here is the dew point forecast for the coming days.  Remember, dew point is a measure of moisture.  It impacts how you feel outside.  Dry, humid, muggy, or oppressive.

I will include Thursday, so you can see the drop.  Decent drop for Friday.  It may still feel a bit humid outside, but not as bad as Thursday.

High temperatures for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Friday highs

Saturday

Sunday

Low temperatures

Friday morning lows

Saturday morning lows

Sunday morning lows

Dew points

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Monday (back to ick weather)

Temperature forecast from the GFS for the coming 15 days.  Keep in mind, past day seven the confidence decreases rapidly.

The temperatures past day six may not be cool enough.  A  sharper cool spell is anticipated as we move towards the end of August.

Eclipse forecast

A mix of sun and clouds on Monday.  I am concerned about two items.  Cumulus clouds are likely with temperatures rising into the 80’s before the eclipse.  The second concern will be cirrus clouds.

Thunderstorms are anticipated to our west and northwest on Sunday night/Monday morning.   Occasionally, these systems can have cirrus blow off that drifts hundreds of miles.  This could ruin our eclipse.  Not saying that will happen, but I am monitoring the possibility.

Temperatures will drop 6 to 12 degrees in the totality area.  Perhaps more.

Confidence in the overall forecast is medium.

GFS cloud cover forecast for 7 am and 1 pm Monday

7 AM cloud forecast

1 PM cloud forecast from the GFS model

The EC guidance shows light precipitation totals over our area from late Monday morning into the evening.  This is a second model that would indicate at least some potential for problems.

The model does not consider the eclipse.  That could mean temperatures will be cooler than the model indicates.  That could also mess up cloud formation.  Warmer air would mean more cumulus clouds vs somewhat cooler temperatures.  Again, tricky forecast.

I do believe we have some clouds to deal with on Monday.  The question is extent.

We will not know the answer to the cirrus cloud subject until Saturday night or Sunday.

There is a risk for a thunderstorm complex somewhere over Kansas or Missouri on Sunday night and Monday morning.  Confidence in the placement of the complex is rather low.  Guidance is not in agreement.

Hopefully the complex will be further to the west than some model guidance is showing.

You can see the ridge of high pressure to our south and southeast.  The ridge is where sinking air will occur.  We will be on the northern edge of the ridge.  That makes for a tough forecast.

This could cause cirrus clouds to blow into our area.  Cirrus clouds could block the sun.  This is a concern.  Too early for confidence to be high, but it is certainly something to monitor.

Hoping for the best.  There are risks.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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