Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 17, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Warm weekend ahead. Storm chances.

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August 17, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A few scattered thunderstorms redeveloping.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%     TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind:  Southwest and west becoming west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.  Small hail possible, as well.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars if you have outside events.
UV Index: 5 to 7 (clouds should keep the UV index down)
Sunrise:  6:13 AM

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered storms before midnight.  Decreasing chances as the night wears on.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Diminishing coverage overnight.
Wind:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.  There will be some storms in the region.
Sunset:  7:44 PM
Moonrise:  12:57 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:55 PM

 

August 18, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Partly sunny.  A few widely scattered thunderstorms (mainly KY/TN)
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%  to 30%   TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.   Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:14 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  Mild. An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Isolated, if any.
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:42 PM
Moonrise:  1:56 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

August 19, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  I have removed most of the rain chances, for now.  Chances ramp up late Sunday afternoon and more likely Sunday night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  to 20%    IL ~ 10%  to 20%       KY ~ 10%  to 20%      TN ~  10%  to 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Becoming cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible late at night.   Some question on exact timing.  After midnight would be more likely than before.  The rain may hold off until morning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none early.  A few storms after midnight (esp MO)
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:  7:52 PM
Moonrise:  2:53 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:33 AM

 

August 20, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Increasingly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~50% to 60%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.  We should monitor Monday for a few stronger storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium/high (depends on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%    IL ~50% to 60%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  7:40 PM
Moonrise:  3:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:12 AM

August 21, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% to 20%     IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~ 10% to 20%      TN ~  10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium/High
Sunrise:  6:16 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  A weak cold front will pass through the area.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some wet roads and lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:38 PM
Moonrise:  4:39 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

August 22, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Some morning clouds.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Mostly sunny during the afternoon.  Cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some morning wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:17 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:37 PM
Moonrise:  5:26 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:43 AM

 

August 23, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:18 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:36 PM
Moonrise:  6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72-hour rainfall forecast through 7 AM Monday

 

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast through 7 AM Friday

A fairly large rain event over the coming days.  Some areas will likely top three inches of rain.  This is much needed rain for many areas.

This is one of the larger/widespread rain events over the last few months.

 

 

Let’s zoom in a bit

KEEP IN MIND, this is broad-brushed by the WPC/NOAA

This is the seven day rainfall outlook.

Let’s hope some of this verifies.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

This is Missouri and Illinois centered

 

 

Kentucky and Tennessee centered

 

 

Spray conditions will be mixed.  On and off shower and thunderstorm chances into at least Monday evening.

Locally heavy rain is likely from time to time.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Friday through Monday: Thunderstorms are again possible Friday and Friday night.  Perhaps a lull Saturday into Sunday afternoon.  Storm chances increase late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night/Monday.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low to marginal.  I can’t rule out a few reports of wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph.  Isolated down-burst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

Locally heavy rain  is a concern over the coming days.  Avoid flooded roadways.

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Isolated to widely scattered storms possible Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Thunderstorms today and tonight
  2. Mostly dry Saturday/Sunday (widely scattered storms)
  3. Another system Sunday night into Monday
  4. Isolated to widely scattered storms Tuesday into perhaps Wednesday morning
  5. Cooler Tuesday into Friday

 

The main weather story today will be thunderstorm chances.

Many of you experienced thunderstorms overnight.  Some of those thunderstorms were on the heavy side.   Frequent lightning and gusty winds accompanied some many of the storms.

A few reports of hail and high wind were also received (southeast Missouri).

Let’s look at rain totals since Tuesday.  Remember, the forecast was for widespread one to two inch amounts between Tuesday and this coming Monday.

Parts of western Kentucky are still in need of rain.  More is in the forecast.

Click to enlarge.

Scale is on the left.

 

 

Keep in mind, these are radar indicated totals.  They can vary quite a bit.

Here is another view

Click to enlarge images

 

 

 

We will have thunderstorm chances today into tonight.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.

Precipitation will taper as we move through the overnight hours.  Patchy fog may develop over the next few nights (next week, as well).

Clouds will keep temperatures down a bit today.  Widespread 83 to 86 degree readings are anticipated.  Upper 80’s are possible in a few locations if the sun pokes through.

Here is the future-cast Hrrr model guidance.  This is for today.  You can see a few storms popping up in the region.

Time-stamp upper left.

Click images to enlarge.

 

 

At this time, it appears that thunderstorm chances will be isolated to widely scattered Saturday into Sunday afternoon.  There will likely be some storms dotting radar.  Many areas, however, should remain dry.

The best chance of those isolated storms will be across western Kentucky and Tennessee (Saturday).

Another storm system swings through the area Sunday night and Monday.  This will be accompanied by yet another round of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of that rain will likely be heavy, as well.

When all is said and done, most areas will have picked up one to two inches of rain (from last Tuesday until this coming Monday).  Of course, there are always those with more and some with less.

Some locations have received three to four inches of rain over the past 72 hours.

PWAT values remain high.  As you know (if you read my posts) PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  High numbers usually mean heavier rain totals.

PWAT values will again top 1.8 to 2.2″ today and tonight.  Those will again appear Sunday night and Monday.  Locally heavy rain will occur with thunderstorms.

A weak system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  Confidence in rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday morning is low.

It will feel a bit more like late August or September by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.  Overnight lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.  Lower dew points, as well.  That means that it will feel nicer outside.

Here is the GFS model guidance temperature anomaly animation.  This takes us through next week.  Plenty of blue!  That means below normal temperatures.

Time-stamp upper left

 

 

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Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 656

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain served for nearly 30 years in Emergency Management in Alabama including stints under five governors. He served on the cabinets of two Alabama governors. For nearly seven years, he was the Director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency. Today, he is the Managing Partner at Blue Skies Business Group.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 33 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Disturbed area in North Atlantic not expected to develop
  • SPC has only marginal risk areas next two days
  • Still hot in Southwest US
  • Trough still along East Coast
  • Heavy rain NY and PA today
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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