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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 16, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Gusty winds. Scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South and southwest at 12 to 24 mph. Gusty winds possible Wednesday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous late over southeast MO and southern IL
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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August 17, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Warm. Muggy. Showers and thunderstorms along an incoming cold front. Some areas may remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could produce strong winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars and plan on some rain in the region. Have a plan B.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and thunderstorms ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 68 IL ~ 63 to 68 KY ~ 63 to 68 TN ~ 63 to 68
Winds: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph. Winds becoming west and northwest overnight at speeds of 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early, but ending as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 18, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning early in the day
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. Partly cloudy. A slight chance for storms after 2 am. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds to southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Some fog can’t be ruled out.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the night. Perhaps scattered after 2 am.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 19, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated early
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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August 20, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and mild. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: Variable at 4 to 8 mph. Winds mostly southeast and south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild. Fog possible. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Light and variable <10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 21, 2017
Eclipse Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Hot. Humid. Cirrus clouds possible. Not sure on how much coverage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updated forecast numbers.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 22, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Hot. Humid. Cirrus clouds possible. Not sure on how much coverage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updated forecast numbers.
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Wednesday night through Thursday: Thunderstorms are possible, but most likely will remain below severe levels. Gusty winds and lightning will be possible.
The best chance for stronger storms would be on Thursday. That would occur along an incoming cold front. There is a low end severe weather risk on Thursday. A marginal risk. A level one out of five risk. That is the lowest risk.
Severe Weather Graphic for Wednesday night through Tuesday
The big story over the next 24 hours will be a weak cold front that will push through the region. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out on Thursday.
Some areas will miss out on the rainfall. Same story from the past six weeks.
Wednesday night through Thursday night
Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms will be possible. Wednesday night chances will be on the low end of the scale. I have chances around 30%.
Thursday will bring the cold front through the area. We are not looking for significant temperature drops behind the cold front. A few degrees cooler and shave off five to ten degrees from the dew points.
Dew points the last few days have been in the miserable 70’s. We will see those drop into the 60’s on Friday and Saturday. They will then jump back into the 70’s on Sunday and Monday.
Rainfall totals between now and Thursday will vary considerable. Thunderstorms can always drop locally heavy rain totals. Generally 0.10″ to 0.40″ can be expected. Once again, some areas may completely miss out. That is a concern. I know some of you still need rain. We can’t seem to make everyone happy.
Here are three model charts showing precipitation totals through 7 am on Friday
You can see that some areas may not receive much rain (if any).
Here is the highest resolution model. Lot of the area will remain dry if this verifies.
GFS model
Click image to enlarge
Canadian
Click image to enlarge
NAM
A few thunderstorms could be on the strong side as the cold front moves through our region. A marginal risk for severe weather. That would be a level one out of five risk. One being the lowest.
Light green represents general thunderstorms for Thursday. Dark green is the marginal risk for Thursday.
Keep in mind, we do have storms in the forecast today, as well.
Temperature forecast from the GFS for the coming 15 days. Keep in mind, past day seven the confidence decreases rapidly.
Eclipse forecast
A mix of sun and clouds on Monday. I am concerned about two items. Cumulus clouds are likely with temperatures rising into the 80’s before the eclipse. The second concern will be cirrus clouds. Thunderstorms are anticipated to our west and northwest on Sunday night/Monday morning. Occasionally these systems can have cirrus blow off that drifts hundreds of miles. This could ruin our eclipse.
Temperatures will drop 6 to 12 degrees in the totality area. Perhaps more.
Confidence on cloud coverage is low. Confidence in the overall forecast is medium.
GFS cloud cover forecast for 7 am and 1 pm Monday
We will not know the answer to the cirrus cloud subject until Saturday night or Sunday.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
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