Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 16, 2018: Non-subscribers. Unsettled weather.

Thursday afternoon update

The Hrrr model shows a line of heavy storms late tonight into Friday morning.

This is one model of many.

There is some chance that this verifies.  I am not sure on coverage.  I am fairly certain we will see thunderstorm activity late tonight into Friday morning.

A disturbance will move into the region from Missouri.  There will be plenty of moisture to work with.  PWAT values (measure of moisture) will be pegged above 2″.  Those are big numbers for PWAT values.  Locally heavy rain will occur in thunderstorms.

Here is the Hrrr animation (keep in mind, this is one models opinion)

 

 

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August 17, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Wind:  West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 5 to 7
Sunrise:  6:13 AM

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible early in the night.  Decreasing chances as the night wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%     TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  Diminishing coverage overnight.
Wind:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset:  7:44 PM
Moonrise:  12:57 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:55 PM

 

August 18, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Only a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%  to 30%   TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.   Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:14 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Isolated, if any.
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:42 PM
Moonrise:  1:56 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

August 19, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  I have removed most of the rain chances, for now.  Chances ramp up late Sunday afternoon and more likely Sunday night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%  to 20%    IL ~ 10%  to 20%       KY ~ 10%  to 20%      TN ~  10%  to 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%      TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous.  Increasing coverage overnight.
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates and radars
Sunset:  7:52 PM
Moonrise:  2:53 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:33 AM

 

August 20, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%      TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.  We should monitor Monday for a few stronger storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%  to 50%    IL ~ 40%  to 50%      KY ~ 50%  to 60%      TN ~  50%  to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  7:40 PM
Moonrise:  3:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:12 AM

August 21, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% to 20%     IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~ 10% to 20%      TN ~  10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind:  Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium/High
Sunrise:  6:16 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  A weak cold front will pass through the area.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some wet roads and lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:38 PM
Moonrise:  4:39 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

August 22, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Some morning clouds.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Mostly sunny during the afternoon.  Cooler and less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some morning wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:17 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:37 PM
Moonrise:  5:26 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:43 AM

 

August 23, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Nice.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:18 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Pleasant.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:36 PM
Moonrise:  6:09 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72-hour rainfall forecast through 7 AM Sunday

 

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast through 7 AM Thursday

A fairly large rain event over the coming days.  Some areas will likely top three inches of rain.  This is much needed rain for many areas.

This is one of the larger/widespread rain events over the last few months.

 

 

Let’s zoom in a bit

KEEP IN MIND, this is broad-brushed by the WPC/NOAA

This is the seven day rainfall outlook.

Let’s hope some of this verifies.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

This is Missouri and Illinois centered

 

 

Kentucky and Tennessee centered

 

 

Spray conditions will be mixed.  On and off shower and thunderstorm chances into at least Monday evening.

Locally heavy rain is likely from time to time.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms are likely.  If storms form then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, frequent lightning, and pea size hail.  A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts.  A marginal risk of severe weather.

Friday through Monday: Thunderstorms are likely Friday and Friday night.  Perhaps a lull Saturday into Sunday afternoon.  Storm chances increase late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low to marginal.  I can’t rule out a few reports of wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph.  Isolated down-burst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

Locally heavy rain  is a concern over the coming days.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Locally heavy rain totals
  2. Avoid flooded roadways
  3. Marginal risk of severe weather
  4. Unsettled weather into Monday
  5. Much nicer next week (TUE into at least THU/FRI)

 

Many of you have picked up rain over the past 48 hours.  Some have missed out.  Numerous locations have received 0.50″ to 1.5″.  A few locations have topped the two inch mark.  Isolated three inch reports.

There are some areas with less than 0.25″ of rain.

Remember, the forecast was a widespread one to two inch rain event between Tuesday night and this coming Monday night.

Those who are still waiting for rain should be patient.  More is on the way.  Some of it will be heavy, as well.

Here are some radar indicated rain totals.

Click the images to enlarge

 

 

 

We will have additional thunderstorm chances today.  The greatest coverage will be across the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee and then into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Other areas may receive isolated thunderstorms.

Storms that form today could produce isolated wind damage.  Heavy rain is a concern with PWAT (measure of moisture) numbers above 1.8″.

Lightning is always a concern for outdoor activities.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight.  Guidance indicates a band of storms moving west to east across the region.  Locally heavy rain is the main concern.

Here is the WRF future-cast model guidance.  This is around 12 am to 2 am Friday morning.   The NAM model shows even more activity than this one.

 

 

We will have at least scattered (if not numerous) thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

The coverage will wind down as we push deeper into Friday night.

Let’s look at the NAM model guidance future-cast radar.

Time stamp at the top of the image.  This takes us into 1 PM Saturday.

This won’t be exact.  Just take the general idea that we will have on and off shower and thunderstorm chances.

This is what the model believes radar might look like.

 

 

At this time, shower and thunderstorm chances appear to be minimal Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.  If you have outdoor plans then I would not change them.

I did leave in a 10% to 20% chance.  I can’t rule out isolated storms.  Coverage should not be great.

There is a bit lower confidence as we move into late Sunday afternoon.  Guidance is bringing another system into the region Sunday night/Monday.  An earlier arrival time would mean shower and thunderstorm chances would need to be added into the Sunday afternoon forecast.

I would encourage you to check radars from time to time.

Thunderstorm chances ramp up Sunday night into Monday night.  This will occur as an area of low pressure moves to our north.  It will drag a decent cold front across the area.

Widespread showers and storms should accompany the cold front.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Gusty storms possible.

Temperatures and humidity (dew point) levels will decrease Monday night into Thursday.  The air will have a much nicer feel to it.

If you have been wanting to work outside then Tuesday through Thursday may just be the ticket.

Let’s look at morning low temperatures.

Click images to enlarge

Wednesday morning low temperatures

 

 

Wednesday morning dew points

 

 

Thursday morning low temperatures

 

 

Thursday dew points

 

 

Friday morning low temperatures

 

 

Friday dew points

 

 

It does appear that temperatures will be below normal over the next 8 to 14 days.

Here is the latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks.

The blue shading represents the probability of below normal temperatures.  It does not represent actual temperature departures.

 

 

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The September forecast has been updated. 
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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This product is for subscribers.

 

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 656

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain served for nearly 30 years in Emergency Management in Alabama including stints under five governors. He served on the cabinets of two Alabama governors. For nearly seven years, he was the Director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency. Today, he is the Managing Partner at Blue Skies Business Group.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 33 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Disturbed area in North Atlantic not expected to develop
  • SPC has only marginal risk areas next two days
  • Still hot in Southwest US
  • Trough still along East Coast
  • Heavy rain NY and PA today
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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