Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 15, 2018: Non-subscriber WeatherTalk blog update.

Locally heavy rain likely this afternoon and tonight.

If storms train over the same areas then a few spots will pick up more than two inches of rain.

Heavy could could cause some brief flash flooding issues.

Monitor updates.

 

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August 15, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds over much of the area.  A mix of sun and clouds in Kentucky and Tennessee.   Showers and thunderstorms likely across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Greatest coverage may again be across Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 88 (coolest readings where clouds are thicker)     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80%     IL ~ 80%       KY ~ 50%       TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous.  Greatest coverage over Missouri and Illinois.
Wind:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  This can temporarily flood ditches.  Isolated severe weather risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.   Isolated severe weather risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would have a plan B and monitor forecast updates
UV Index: 4 to 9 (will vary based on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:11 AM

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 68 to 72     KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60% to 70%    IL ~ 60% to 70%       KY ~ 60% to 70%     TN ~ 60% to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  This can temporarily flood ditches.   Isolated severe weather risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds.   Isolated severe weather risk
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts
Sunset:  7:46 PM
Moonrise:  10:52 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 10:47 PM

 

August 16, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp Pennyrile area of west KY)
Wind:  Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy downpours.  Isolated severe weather risk.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.   Isolated severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:12 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 68      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%     TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:45 PM
Moonrise:  11:55 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 11:20 PM

 

August 17, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Greatest coverage during the PM hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Wind:  West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 5 to 7
Sunrise:  6:13 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%     TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Wind:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset:  7:44 PM
Moonrise:  12:57 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:55 PM

 

August 18, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%    IL ~ 30% to 40%       KY ~ 40%  to 50%   TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:14 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:42 PM
Moonrise:  1:56 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

August 19, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 20% to 30%       KY ~ 20% to 30%      TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the latest forecast numbers
Sunset:  7:52 PM
Moonrise:  2:53 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:33 AM

 

August 20, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%  to 50%    IL ~ 40%  to 50%      KY ~ 40%  to 50%      TN ~  40%  to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds.  We should monitor Monday for a few stronger storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%  to 50%    IL ~ 40%  to 50%      KY ~ 40%  to 50%      TN ~  40%  to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few intense storms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  7:40 PM
Moonrise:  3:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:12 AM

August 21, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% to 20%     IL ~ 10% to 20%       KY ~ 10% to 20%      TN ~  10% to 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Wind:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium/High
Sunrise:  6:16 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:38 PM
Moonrise:  4:39 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72-hour rainfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday

 

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast through 7 AM Wednesday

A fairly large rain event over the coming days.  Some areas will likely top three inches of rain.  This is much needed rain for many areas.

This is one of the larger/widespread rain events over the last few months.

 

 

Let’s zoom in a bit

KEEP IN MIND, this is broad-brushed by the WPC/NOAA

This is the seven day rainfall outlook.

Let’s hope some of this verifies.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

This is Missouri and Illinois centered

 

 

Kentucky and Tennessee centered

 

 

Spray conditions will be mixed.  On and off shower and thunderstorm chances into at least Monday evening.

Locally heavy rain is likely from time to time.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Wednesday through Thursday: Thunderstorms are likely.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low to marginal.  I can’t rule out a few reports of wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph.  Isolated down-burst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

Friday through Monday: Thunderstorms are possible.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low to marginal.  I can’t rule out a few reports of wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph.  Isolated down-burst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

Locally heavy rain  is a concern over the coming days.  Avoid flooded roadways.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Locally heavy rain totals
  2. Avoid flooded roadways
  3. Marginal risk of severe weather
  4. Unsettled weather into Monday

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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Our much needed rain has arrived.  More is on the way.

Radar, early this morning, was showing quite a bit of activity over portions of the region.

Here is the 8:30 AM radar (screen grab)

You can see the heavier rain embedded in the shield of precipitation.  Those are some gusty thunderstorms.

 

 

Some of you received heavy rain Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Many areas did not receive rain.

I received around 0.60″ of rain at the Weather Observatory in northern Massac County, Illinois.  Much needed rain.

Those who have not received rain will certainly receive some over the coming days.

Radar this morning shows widespread precipitation over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  That is where the greatest coverage will occur today.

There will be chances across the rest of the region, as well.  Those in need of rain will just need to be patient.  It is coming.

Here is the NAM model’s future-cast radar.  What it believes radar might look like into tomorrow.  It won’t be exact.  Just take the general idea from the animation.

It is struggling a bit with Thursday’s activity.  We will have to see about the Thursday coverage.

There will be at least scattered showers and thunderstorms into Friday.

Time stamp is located in the upper left corner of the animation.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

Between now and Monday night, many areas will pick up an inch or two of rain. Some areas will top three inches of rain.

If thunderstorms train over the same areas then the odds of those three inch+ totals will increase.  Training is where storms move repeatedly over the same county.

Let’s look at a few models.

This is the NAM’s rainfall forecast

This is through 1 PM Friday.

Click to enlarge the images.

 

 

This is the lower resolution NAM model’s rainfall forecast through 1 PM Saturday

 

 

This is the GFS model’s rainfall forecast

 

 

This is the Canadian model’s rainfall forecast

 

 

Notice that all of the models are painting quite a bit of rain over the region.  That shows high confidence in the overall forecast.  We should all walk away from this with decent rain totals between now and Monday.

There will be a chance of at least a few strong thunderstorms, as well.  The overall risk of severe weather is rather limited.  Cloud cover will help keep CAPE levels in check today over most of the area.  CAPE is a measure of instability.

CAPE numbers could be higher on Thursday.  We will need to monitor to see if a few intense thunderstorms bubble up Thursday afternoon.

There will be plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to work with.  That means locally heavy rain is again on the table.

PWAT values will range from 1.7 to 2.1″ over the coming days.  PWAT is a measure of moisture that thunderstorms tap into.  Showers and thunderstorms will be prolific rain producers.  Tropical-like.

 

 

Here is the PWAT animation map from the NAM model guidance.  You can see the high numbers moving across our region over the coming days.

This prolonged period of high PWAT values is another indicator that heavy rain will be possible.

Time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

There will be another wave of low pressure move across the region Friday afternoon and night.  This will again increase rain coverage.  There will be another one Monday/Monday night.

Both of those time frames is when we should see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.  Locally heavy rain possible.

Here is the GFS model future-cast precipitation forecast.

This is one of many models.

The GFS is a lower resolution model.  It has a tendency to make the rain coverage look greater than it is.

What I want you to take away from this animation is that we will see increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms both Friday and again on Monday.

Time stamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

It does appear that temperatures will be below normal over the next 8 to 14 days.

Here is the latest 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks.

The blue shading represents the probability of below normal temperatures.  It does not represent actual temperature departures.

 

 

 

.
The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
.

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

.

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 656

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain served for nearly 30 years in Emergency Management in Alabama including stints under five governors. He served on the cabinets of two Alabama governors. For nearly seven years, he was the Director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency. Today, he is the Managing Partner at Blue Skies Business Group.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 33 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Disturbed area in North Atlantic not expected to develop
  • SPC has only marginal risk areas next two days
  • Still hot in Southwest US
  • Trough still along East Coast
  • Heavy rain NY and PA today
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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