Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 14, 2017: Unsettled, warm, and muggy.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 14, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A few scattered rain showers possible.  Rumble of thunder possible.  Patchy dense fog.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72        IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72       TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Low visibility in fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars

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August 15, 2017
Tues
day Forecast Details
Forecast:  Morning fog possible.  Partly sunny.  Warm and muggy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.  Showers and thunderstorms likely along the AR/MO border and then along the KY/TN border.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds:  South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Morning low visibility in foggy areas.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Wet roadways and lightning likely along the MO/AR border and KY/TN border.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  except 70% for the Bootheel   IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30% except 50% along the KY/TN border   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated for most of the area.  Numerous along the MO/AR border and KY/TN border.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 15, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Partly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  There might be an uptick in activity late tonight into the early morning hours.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 74        IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74        TN ~ 70 to 74
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   A few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  (a bit higher for the Bootheel)   IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans.  No, but check radars.

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August 16, 2017
Wednes
day Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Hot.  Humid/muggy.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 76        IL ~ 72 to 76        KY ~ 72 to 76       TN ~ 72 to 76
Winds:  South and southwest  at 8 to 26 mph.  Gusty winds possible Wednesday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars

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August 17, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Warm. Muggy.  Scattered thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could produce strong winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Check radars and plan on some rain in the region.  Have a plan B.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Quite a few clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms ending.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 63 to 68        IL ~ 63 to 68        KY ~ 63 to 68       TN ~ 63 to 68
Winds:  South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.  Winds becoming west and northwest overnight at speeds of 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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August 18, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  An isolated shower or storm possible early in the day (before sunrise)
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning early in the day
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Mild.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 64 to 68        IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Some fog can’t be ruled out.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 19, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  An evening shower or thunderstorm possible.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70        IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated early
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars

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August 20, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Morning fog will mix out.  Mostly sunny and mild.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88       TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70        IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Light and variable <10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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August 21, 2017
Eclipse Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Hot.  Humid.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and updated forecast numbers.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74        IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Monday night through Thursday:  Thunderstorms are possible, but most likely will remain below severe levels.  Gusty winds and lightning will be possible.

The best chance for stronger storms would be on Thursday.  That would occur along an incoming cold front.

beausanalysis

Welcome to summer.  I know we had a nice streak of weather, but we have to give a nod to summer, as well.

Temperatures this week will be near normal to a few degrees above normal.  Normal high temperatures are in the upper 80’s.

Here is the Tuesday 4 PM temperature map, then the dew point map, and finally the heat index map

Summer temperatures!

Click to enlarge

Dew points

Heat index values will be well into the nineties.

The warmest days will likely be Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  Cloud cover will play a part in actual high temperatures.  If we have more clouds than anticipated then temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler.

The dew point temperature is where we have to pay the piper.  Dew points will rise into the 70’s tonight into Thursday.  That means heat index values of 96 to 102 degrees (during the warmest part of the day).

Let’s look at the comfort chart

Dew points are a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  It is a better parameter for determining whether it is muggy outside.

Click to enlarge.  Oppressive numbers for the middle of the week.

As is typical during the summer months, we will have a daily chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Many areas may remain dry, and a few areas will pick up 0.40″ to 0.80″ of much needed rainfall.

The best chance of rain should arrive on Wednesday, Thursday, and Thursday night.  This will occur along an incoming cold front.  The front will help lift the air and produce showers and thunderstorms.  A few of the storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.  The threat for severe weather is rather low, but perhaps not zero.  The greatest risk for stronger storms would arrive along the cold front (Thursday).

Model guidance has been all but useless over the past few weeks.  Small disturbances, moving along the jet stream flow, are difficult to pick up by guidance.

Models are showing rain and thunderstorms for Friday night and Saturday.  For now, I left it dry or low end chances for a shower or storm.  I will fine tune that part of the forecast as we move forward.

The eclipse forecast remains mostly unchanged.  I did bump up temperatures a little bit.  I also continue to paint some clouds and maybe a few showers/storms.  Long way to go for certainty.

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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