Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 13, 2018: Non-subscriber blog post. Warm weather this week.

Daily WeatherTalk schedule

Click schedule for a larger view. Keep in mind, during active weather this schedule will change. There will be additional updates outside of what has been posted here.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.

 

August 13, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Odds favor Monday remaining dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: None (for most of us) to isolated (over southeast Missouri)
Wind:  East and southeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:10 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind:  Light and variable winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:52 PM
Moonrise:  8:38 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:39 PM

 

August 14, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.  Greatest rain chances will be across Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 86 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 30%     TN ~  20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered (best chance over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois)
Wind:  Southwest wind 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would recommend checking radars from time to time
UV Index: 8 to 10 High (3 to 5) in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois
Sunrise:  6:10 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.   Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70      KY ~ 66 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  This can temporarily flood ditches.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would recommend checking radars.
Sunset:  7:47 PM
Moonrise:  9:46 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:14 PM

 

August 15, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Greatest coverage may again be across Missouri and Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 88 (coolest readings where clouds are thicker)     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 30% to 40%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.  Greatest coverage over Missouri and Illinois.
Wind:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  This can temporarily flood ditches.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  I would have a plan B and monitor forecast updates
UV Index: 4 to 9 (will vary based on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:11 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 68 to 72     KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60% to 70%    IL ~ 60% to 70%       KY ~ 60% to 70%     TN ~ 60% to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  This can temporarily flood ditches.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts
Sunset:  7:46 PM
Moonrise:  10:52 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 10:47 PM

 

August 16, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain with any thunderstorms that develop.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp Pennyrile area of west KY)
Wind:  Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:12 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 68      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20% to 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%     TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  West and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:45 PM
Moonrise:  11:55 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 11:20 PM

 

Confidence in the rain probabilities will be lower as we move into the Friday through Monday time-frame.  I will have a better grasp on this as we move through the week.

Monitor updated forecasts.

 

August 17, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Scattered thunderstorms again possible.  Greatest coverage during the PM hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 85 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low to medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:13 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~40%    IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind:  Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Low to medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts
Sunset:  7:44 PM
Moonrise:  12:57 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:55 PM

 

August 18, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%    IL ~ 30% to 40%       KY ~ 30% to 40%      TN ~  30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:14 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset:  7:42 PM
Moonrise:  1:56 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

August 19, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the latest forecast numbers
Sunset:  7:52 PM
Moonrise:  2:53 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 12:33 AM

 

August 20, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 6 to 8
Sunrise:  6:15 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can occasionally produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset:  7:40 PM
Moonrise:  3:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:12 AM

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72-hour rainfall forecast through 7 AM Wednesday

 

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast through 7 AM Sunday

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Monday through Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms are possible.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low.  Isolated downburst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday:  Scattered thunderstorms are possible.  Storms that form will produce gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain.  The threat of severe weather appears low.  Isolated downburst winds can occur with summer thunderstorms.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. A warm week ahead of us
  2. Somewhat humid (it is August)
  3. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms
  4. Locally heavy rain again possible where thunderstorms occur.

 

We are in a fairly typical summer pattern.  That may be about to change.  Charts are indicating a more active/stormy pattern as we push through the week.

Many people need rain.  A few of you have picked up two to four inches of rain over the past week.

We will have chances of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.  That is the good news.  Some of you will pick up some much-needed rain.

Rain chances will vary with each time period (see above).

One band of rain is showing up in the charts Tuesday and Tuesday night.  That band would move southwest to northeast.

Here is the future-cast radar from the 3K NAM guidance.  This is what this model believes radar will look like during the next 48 hours.  Time-stamp upper left.

Click images to enlarge them.

These is some question concerning the coverage of rain Tuesday.  Notice how the band of rain weakens as it pushes northeast?  We will need to see where that weakening occurs.

Either way, plan on some precipitation on radar Tuesday.

 

 

The greatest coverage of rain will likely be Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures won’t be extreme.  Highs will mostly top out in the 85 to 90-degree range right on through the weekend.  Overnight lows will dip into the 60’s to around 70 degrees.  Again, fairly typical weather for the Month of August.

Wind fields aloft will be fairly tame this week.  That should dampen the risk of organized severe weather.  As always, monitor updates.  Occasionally,  a line of thunderstorms will produce strong winds.

There will be plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to work with.  That means locally heavy rain is again on the table.  Not everyone will receive heavy rain, of course.

PWAT values will range from 1.7 to 2.0″ over the coming days.  PWAT is a measure of moisture that thunderstorms tap into.

 

 

 

Tuesday PWAT values.

 

 

Wednesday 1 PM PWAT values

As you can see, the high PWAT values will linger through the week.

 

 

 

The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

First glance at fall!

 

These products are for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 


 

 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 655

This episode features a focus on the upcoming National Weather Association annual meeting August 25 to 30, 2018, in St. Louis, MO.
Joining us are Janice Bunting, Executive Director of the NWA, and Pat Spoden, Hospitality Host for the meeting as well as handling.
The RON! The RON is a special session to try to connect researchers and operational meteorologist.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 119 at Death Valley, CA, and 28 at West Yellowstone, MT
  • Hot along West Coast of US
  • Severe storms eastern Colorado Monday evening
  • Cooler weather coming to OK and North TX
  • 1st all-woman flight crew on hurricane hunter flight into Hector
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *