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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website. The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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August 9, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:52 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:31 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:47 p.m. Waxing Crescent
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible over western Kentucky and western Tennessee.
What impact is expected? Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 10, 2016
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: Southeast and east winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Very small chance for gusty winds with storms
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:51 p.m.
UV index will be 7-10. Moderate to high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 1:26 p.m. and moonset will be at — First quarter
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 11, 2016
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 88-94 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:49 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 2:20 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A stray thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 3-6 mph. Wind direction variable at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30% (mainly evening)
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
August 12, 2016
Friday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:09 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:48 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to most likely high. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 3:14 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:00 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Friday Night – Increasingly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Best coverage might end up over the northern half of the region (parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois).
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 13, 2016
Saturday – Quite a few clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flash flooding. Best coverage on Saturday could also be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances everyone, but best coverage perhaps north vs south.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction along and north of the cold front.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds with a few storms
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a backup plan.
Sunrise will be at 6:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 2-6. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:07 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:43 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 3-6 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a backup plan
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August 14, 2016
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan.
Sunrise will be at 6:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:46 p.m.
UV index will be 2-6. Low to moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 4:58 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:30 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Sunday Night – Cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce heavy rain. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
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August 15, 2016
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a backup plan
Sunrise will be at 6:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:45 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4. Low . We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 5:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:23 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Be alert for flooding.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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August 16, 2016
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: West winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% monitor updates.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:44 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate. We will need to monitor cloud cover and any storms in the region.
Moonrise will be at 6:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:20 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Storms could produce heavy rain, strong winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Slow moving storms, during the summer months, can produce flash flooding.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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More information on the UV index. Click here.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Becoming hotter and more humid
- Thunderstorm chances increasing
- Weekend cold front
- Heavy rain potential
Remember, I am on vacation from today through next Friday. I will keep everything updated on a daily basis.
A tropical like upper level low is meandering to our south. This system has been responsible for flash flooding along the Gulf of Mexico. Very heavy rainfall totals are occurring beneath it. This system will spread moisture into our region over the coming days. This will only help to increase PWAT values. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. Anything about two inches is extreme.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
I am looking for PWAT values to rise into the 2.0″-2.5″ range over the coming days.
A cold front will be pushing into our region from the northwest on Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately, this system will bump into all of the moisture over our region. This will help produce heavy showers and thunderstorms from Friday into the weekend. The front may stall. If the front stalls then some places will easily top four inches of rain. This needs to be closely monitored.
Historically set-ups like this have produced flash flooding in our region.
Monitor updated forecasts. There remains some questions about where the front will stall.
I will be on vacation from August 10th through August 19th. I will keep everything updated, but perhaps a little less content.
How much rain is forecast over the coming days?
This is broad-brushed. Some spots will have a lot more and some less. Keep that in mind.
Here is the GFS models rainfall totals through the next seven days.
Thursday morning low temperature map
Thursday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
Friday morning low temperature map
Friday afternoon high temperature map (will vary based on clouds and precipitation)
I will keep the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page updated, Beau Dodson on Twitter, and the texts. Don’t forget if you want to receive links to the daily blog and Facebook updates to check box number four on the texting site. That is the one used for non-severe days.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night and Thursday: A few storms are possible. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain. Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated downburst possible. Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph. Lightning.
Thursday night into Friday: A few scattered thunderstorms could produce lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
Saturday into Sunday night: Widespread thunderstorms possible. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Small risk for a severe thunderstorm. Flash flooding is a concern.
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No major changes in this forecast package.
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The main concern will be thunderstorms over the coming days. Some locally heavy rain possible. Don’t forget that slow moving summer storms can produce flash flooding. That is a concern this week.
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Heat index values will pop above 100 degrees over the coming days. Don’t forget our outdoor friends.
Otherwise, lightning is a concern for ball practice and other outdoor events.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
