This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
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April 8, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Winds increase after midnight. Not as cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 48 (east) to 56 (west) TN ~ 50 to 56
Winds: South winds at 4 to 8 mph early and then increasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Higher gusts possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 9, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Warm and windy. Perhaps some high clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 77 IL ~ 72 to 77 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph. Can’t rule out higher gusts.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Boaters should use care on area lakes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy and mild. Windy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: South winds at 15 to 35 mph and gusty.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong and gusty winds. Winds should gust above 30 mph
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 10, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Perhaps an isolated showers after 3 pm over southeast Missouri. Less than a 10% elsewhere.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:25 p.m.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. A 60% for showers. Thunder possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Should be okay, but monitor radars during the evening. A band of showers may approach from the west.
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April 11, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40% for a shower. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
Winds: Winds becoming north and northwest early in the day at speeds of 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways. Possibly lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous for a brief period of time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:26 p.m.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain should come to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t completely rule out lightning.
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Your day by day analysis
Saturday night into Sunday:
It won’t be nearly as cold on Saturday night as it was on Friday night. Some of you reported frost on Saturday morning. Temperatures dipped into the 30’s.
Temperatures on Sunday will be amazing, but with strong winds. Expect widespread 74 to 78 degrees with a few spots hitting the 80 degree mark. The one problem on Sunday will be winds. Winds will gust from the south at 15 to 35 mph. Gusts into the 40’s are possible.
Anyone with boating plans on Sunday should use care.
Dry weather through Sunday afternoon.
NAM 4 PM temperatures. This model might be a little too cool. Temperatures should be a little warmer than this. Either way, this is nice.
Sunday afternoon wind map. Winds will be strong and gusty before this time, as well.
4 PM wind map
Winds will be even stronger on Sunday night. Expect winds to gust above 35 mph.
Here is the 1 AM Monday wind map. Breezy!
Our next rain maker arrives on Monday and Monday night. The guidance has been slowing this system. I can’t rule out some spotty showers on Monday. Maybe a thundershower.
Rain chances increase on Monday night and Tuesday. The system will not be in a rush to arrive or exit.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″ are anticipated. Models are actually all over the place with totals. Models are showing a heavier band of precipitation through our region. The question is placement.
It is possible that portions of the region pick up a band of heavier rain. More in the order of 0.50″ to 0.80″.
Severe weather is not anticipated with this event. That is the good news. It is April. April, May, and June tend to be the peak times of the year for severe weather.
Let’s take a look at the different models and how much rain they are painting.
As you can see, there is not a lot of agreement on rainfall totals. Most of the guidance does at least show a heavier band of precipitation. Again, the question is placement.
This first image is the GEM model.
Click images to enlarge
This next model is the GFS model
This next model is the NAM
This is the NOAA rainfall forecast
Click images to enlarge
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
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Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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