Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 6th and 7th: Patchy frost?

Splendid weekend on tap for the region!!!
A nice day ahead for the region.  It will be a bit on the cool side with highs mostly in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.  With plenty of sunshine it should feel a tad warmer.
A frost advisory is in effect for late tonight into early Saturday morning.  Portions of the region have (at least for now) been excluded.
It is possible that more counties will be added.
If you are in or near the advisory then you could have frost later tonight.  Lows tonight will dip into the 35 to 40 degree range (a bit higher near Poplar Bluff).
Saturday and Sunday should both deliver quite a bit of sunshine.  Highs on Saturday in the 66 to 72 degree range and highs on Sunday in the 74 to 78 degree range!  Woohoo.  Spring weekend ahead of us.
Strong and gusty winds develop on Sunday.  Expect gradient winds of 30 to 40 mph.  If you plan on being on the lake, Sunday into Sunday evening, then keep this in mind.
Rain chances return on Monday/Monday night.  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Dry Tuesday into Wednesday.
We can handle this forecast 🙂
Enjoy your weekend!

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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April 6 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:
 Perhaps some evening clouds.  Clearing expected overnight.  Chilly.  Slight chance for light frost.
Temperatures
:  MO ~ 36 to 42   IL ~ 35 to 40    KY ~ 36 to 42     TN ~ 36 to 42
Winds
: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.  Gusty during the evening.  Winds becoming northwest at 4 to 8 mph after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying
: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather
? Most likely none.  Winds should keep frost from forming in most areas.  Small risk for frost.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 7, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Cool temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60   TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Frost possible.
Forecast
: Mostly clear and cold.  Frost likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 34 to 38   IL ~ 34 to 38    KY ~ 34 to 38     TN ~ 35 to 40  Some areas could experience slightly cooler temperatures.  Favored cold spots.
Winds: Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph early and then 0 to 5 mph late
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost is a possibility.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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April 8, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few passing clouds.  Milder.
Temperatures:   MO ~65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68     KY ~ 65 to 70   TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Winds becoming south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:28 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear.  Windy.  Not as cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54   IL ~ 48 to 54    KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 54
Winds:  South winds increase to 8 to 16 mph during the afternoon (esp the western half of the region).
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds west of the MS River (especially)
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Winds will be highest over our western counties.  Here is a map forecast for wind gusts on Saturday afternoon


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April 9, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Warm and windy.  Perhaps some high clouds during the afternoon.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 77     IL ~ 72 to 77     KY ~ 74 to 78   TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:26 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:24 p.m.

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Increasing clouds.  A 20% for a shower after 3 am.  Milder.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58   IL ~ 54 to 58   KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South winds at 7 to 14 mph.  Gusty.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered showers possible towards morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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April 10, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers possible, esp during the afternoon.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 77     IL ~ 72 to 77     KY ~ 74 to 78   TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered (mainly afternoon hours)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:25 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:25 p.m.

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy.  A  50% for showers.  Thunder possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58   IL ~ 54 to 58   KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 50%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered early and then perhaps becoming numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars and updated rain forecasts.

 

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thursday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Monday and Monday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.   Lightning is the main concern.  Monitor updates.

At this time, I am not tracking any severe weather events.

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Your day by day analysis 

Thursday night into the weekend:

 

Calm weather is anticipated into the weekend.  We deserve some calm weather.

It will remain chilly into Friday night.  Below normal temperatures.  Light frost is possible Thursday night, but more likely Friday night.

Temperatures on Thursday night will likely dip into the 30’s, but winds should remain strong enough to keep frost from forming.

On Friday night, the area of high pressure will move over our region.  This should help calm the winds.  Calm winds will combine with temperatures in the 30’s to produce some frost.  It may not be a killing frost, because ground temperatures are warmer.  With that said, some frost is possible Friday night into early Saturday morning.

A nice warming trend for both Saturday and Sunday.  Highs mostly in the 60’s on Saturday.  Highs mostly in the 70’s on Sunday.  Both days should deliver plenty of sunshine.  That is the current forecast and it appears that it will hold.

Gusty winds on Saturday night into Sunday.

Here is the wind forecast for Saturday night.  This might be a tad too high, but gusts into the 20’s and 30’s appear possible.

Saturday temperatures

Sunday temperatures

A new storm system approaches our region on Monday and Monday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again.  It appears the severe weather threat will be minimal.  I will keep an eye on it, as always.

7 AM Monday GFS precipitation map.  Some spotty green.  Showers.

7 PM Monday GFS precipitation map.

Rainfall totals per the GFS (this may need adjusting)

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514

If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

The Android app is also ready.

Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers.  The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

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If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do.  Link www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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