9 AM Update
As expected, the Storm Prediction Center did upgrade parts of our area for a few reports of hail tonight. I had been thinking this could occur based on instability levels and wind fields. Not concerned about tornadoes tonight. But, a few storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain and lightning, of course.
Storms today and this afternoon should remain below severe levels. I suppose a couple of storms could produce gusty winds and pea size hail.
I continue to monitor Thursday into Friday for a bigger severe weather event.
Tonight’s severe weather graphic. Bright yellow indicates where a few storms could become severe. Large hail being the main concern. This could still shift around a bit more.
Keep in mind the Storm Prediction Center issues these outlooks. They change them around constantly. Whether they change it or not – that doesn’t change my forecast. A few storms tonight could produce hail.
Previous update below…
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Stay abreast of updates this week – we may have periods of time where severe weather outlooks will need to be adjusted. Can’t rule out hail and gusty winds with some storms.
Monday – Cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mild. High temperatures in the 60’s. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. There will be some showers and storms on radar.
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Morning temperatures will be in the 50’s. Mild. South winds at 10-15 mph.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Scattered. Mild with temperatures in the upper 60’s. South winds at 10-15 mph.
Monday night – Cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Hail possible with some storms. Mild. Lows only in the 60’s. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. There should be some showers around on radar.
Tuesday – Partly sunny and warm. It will feel more humid outside. A chance for a thunderstorm. Highs in the 70’s. Some places may approach 80 degrees. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out a shower or storm.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Mild. Lows only in the 60’s. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out a shower or storm.
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a chance for a thunderstorm. Warm and humid. Highs in the 76 to 82 degree range. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I can’t rule out a shower or storm.
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. On and off rain/storm chances. Some storms could produce gusty winds and hail.
2. Quite warm on Tuesday and Wednesday
3. Severe weather concerns will be on the increase as we move towards Thursday and Friday. Too soon for details, but I will be monitoring the data.
Tricky forecast over the coming 5 day period. I would advise monitoring updates, closely.
Spring has sprung. Warm temperatures, dew points on the rise (it will feel more humid outside), and on and off thunderstorm chances will be the forecast for the entire week.
It is not going to rain all of the time. We will have scattered shower and thunderstorm chances pretty much every day. Perhaps the most widespread event will arrive on Thursday night and Friday. Those thunderstorms will accompany a cold front.
Before that time we will have a few upper level disturbances move through the region. Each of these disturbances will trigger showers and thunderstorms. Lightning will be the main concern with thunderstorms today through Wednesday. A secondary concern will be gusty winds and hail. Some of the data indicates at least a risk for a severe thunderstorm (quarter size hail and larger and gusty winds)
Here is the official severe weather outlook for Monday. We are in the general thunderstorm area. That means that severe risk is minimal. That does not mean there can’t be a storm that produces gusty winds or even a report of hail (same goes for Tuesday). These outlooks may need to be adjusted. That would not surprise me.
The area in bright yellow is where a few severe storms could occur. Again, this map could change and additional areas could be outlined for severe weather.
Below is the outlook for Tuesday. Again, we are in the general thunderstorm area. CAPE values will be higher on Tuesday. Instability will be greater. These maps could change – check back for updates.
CAPE values on Tuesday will be high. Normally that is a signal for the potential of heavy storms. If storms do form on Tuesday or Tuesday night then they could produce gusty winds and even a report or two of hail. Severe weather threat is low. I will keep an eye on it. Image is from weatherbell.com
What is CAPE? Click here for an article by the Capital Weather Gang that sums it up nicely
I also noticed that the winds at the 850 mb level increase quite a bit on Monday night. That is one ingredient for thunderstorms that I monitor. This is the map for around 11 pm or midnight on Monday night. Decent winds at the 5000′ level. If we do have thunderstorms then heavy downpours and gusty winds could occur. Hail, as well.
I am also monitoring the severe weather potential for Thursday night into Friday. Perhaps that will be our best chance for heavier weather.
The Storm Prediction Center (they are they forecasters that issue severe weather outlooks and severe thunderstorm/tornado watches) have outlined an area of concern for Thursday into Friday morning. These outlooks typically shift around a bit. So, that means to monitor updates as we move forward. The area of greatest concern is marked in red. Those are fairly high % numbers for an outlook that is still days away. That means their confidence is higher than normal.
Before that time we could have an isolated severe thunderstorm warning or two, but believe the bulk of the severe weather concerns will hold off until later this week. As always, monitor updates.
Remember, a severe thunderstorm by definition is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or higher, and/or a tornado.
Temperatures will be warm over the coming days. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver middle to upper 70’s! Some places will touch 80 degrees. That combined with the higher dew points could make it feel a bit humid outside.
Check out the high temperature maps for today through Wednesday
Tuesday – below
and Wednesday (below)
Rivers will be on the rise. Recent rainfall is causing sharp rises on rivers that just recently leveled off and had been falling. But, as always in the spring…this seems to happen a few times before summer settles into the region. If you have interests along the river then monitor the latest crest forecasts.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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No major changes in this update. Unsettled pattern underway for the entire region. On and off rain/storm chances. Heaviest weather will likely be later in the week (along the actual cold front as it sweeps east).
Lightning is the main concern over the next couple of days. I believe the risk for severe weather will stay to our west. I will be monitoring Thursday into Friday for a better chance of heavier storms in our neck of the woods. I can’t rule out severe weather during that time period. Monitor updates as we move forward.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Here we go again. Rivers will be on the rise because of recent heavy rainfall. If you have interests along the river then monitor the latest stages. Click the link below for the most up to date information.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
I would keep an umbrella handy. Outdoor activities should monitor lightning data. Some lightning possible over the coming days.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Rainfall totals between today and Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the region over the coming days. Rainfall totals will vary quite a bit. Patchy nature of the precipitation could mean some areas won’t pick up much in the way of rainfall. Other areas could pick up 0.25″ – 0.50″ or so. As always, thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall totals.
This is the high resolution WRF model. You can see what it is forecasting from now through Tuesday afternoon. Click image for a larger view. Image is from weatherbell.com
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE/TWO for both today, tonight and on Tuesday. I can’t rule out gusty winds with storms and even some reports of hail.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe thunderstorms could occur in our region
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe thunderstorms could occur in our region
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Amounts will vary quite a bit over the next 5 days. Locally heavy thunderstorms can drop a quick 1/2″ of rain in an hour or less. Keep that in mind. Amounts will vary.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
