Thursday morning update
Thursday, April 6, 2017
Welcome to another fall day in spring. 
🙂 It won’t be as warm today. You probably have already realized this.
Winds overnight gusted to 40+ mph. Gradient winds. These are caused by tight pressure gradients.
Our big low pressure center, that hail and tornadoes to the region, has pushed off to the east and northeast. The wrap-around clouds, however, are usually slow to leave.
Shower coverage this morning was a bit more than anticipated. Most of that will push eastward through the morning hours. That will leave us with spotty showers possible into the afternoon. Gusty winds will continue into this afternoon. This will make it feel colder.
Satellite shows plenty of sunshine this morning over portions of southeast Missouri into a sliver of Illinois. Other areas are mostly cloudy.
As we move through the day we should see a bit more sunshine spreading from west to east.
Temperatures today will remain on the cool side. This is especially true where clouds linger.
Cold tonight with lows dipping into the 30’s. Spotty frost not out of the question.
We warm up a tad on Friday with highs in the middle to upper 50’s.
Friday night should be the coldest night with some areas dipping into the 34 to 38 degree range. I can’t rule out some locations a bit colder. Frost is a concern on Friday night.
The pick day of the weekend will be a double scoop! Saturday and Sunday. Highs into the 60’s on Saturday with sunshine. Highs into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s by Sunday with sunshine.
Clouds may begin to increase late on Sunday into Sunday night. This will be ahead of our next rain maker. That rain maker will arrive late Sunday night into Monday/Monday night.
At this time, severe weather is not anticipated through Monday. Lightning is possible on Monday.
Enjoy!!!!!
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
.
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Windy. Cloudy with evening showers and storms. Showers becoming more scattered as we move deeper into the night. Colder. Some clearing late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 44 KY ~ 36 to 44 TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 40 mph possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong winds. Strong to severe storms ending (mainly our eastern counties).
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates for the early evening hours.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Precipitation should be ending from west to east on Wednesday evening. Scattered showers possible late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Strong winds could interfere with outdoor activities. Rain should be on the way out by Wednesday evening.
.
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Windy. Much cooler. A few light showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Northwest. Strong and gusty. Winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph before noon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered showers possible (mainly morning).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Much cooler with strong and gusty winds. Spotty shower. Not the best day outside.
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Perhaps some evening clouds. Clearing expected overnight. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 44 KY ~ 36 to 44 TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Winds should keep frost from forming.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
.
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:23 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cold. Can’t rule out frost.
Temperatures: MO ~ 35 to 38 IL ~ 35 to 38 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 36 to 42
Winds: Northwest winds at 0 to 5 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor frost potential
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
School bus stop forecast
—
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night: Locally severe storms will come to an end. Eastern counties, early in the evening, may still have some storms.
Thursday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night and Monday: Thunderstorms are possible. Lightning is the main concern. Monitor updates.
———————————-
Your day by day analysis
Wednesday night into the weekend:
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Wednesday night. Light showers may linger into Thursday morning, but the heavier activity will have pushed on off to the east.
Clouds will be with us into most of Thursday and perhaps Thursday evening. There should be some clearing from west to east on Thursday night. Cold temperatures, as well.
Temperatures by Thursday morning may dip into the 30’s. Brrr. Gusty winds should continue into Thursday night, but not as strong. If the winds continue then the frost risk declines.
Chilly on Friday with highs mostly in the 50’s. Friday night will be cold with light winds. I can not rule out light frost on Friday night/Saturday morning.
Warming trend begins on Saturday. Highs on Saturday should reach into the 60’s. Temperatures may hit 70 by Sunday! Both days should remain dry.
Rain chances may increase late Sunday night, but more so on Monday into Monday night. Another system will push through the region. At this time, the severe weather risk appears small. Lightning will be a possibility.
Here is the weather map for noon on Monday. Green would be rain showers and perhaps thunder.
Find me on Twitter
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
