Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 3rd and 4th: Cold snap?

Tuesday morning update:

Tuesday update: Good morning, everyone.

A few announcements. Is Bueller here? Bueller? No? Always late for science class.

A decent spring day shaping up for the region. Some clouds remain, as of this typing, over the Owensboro area (and a county or so surrounding Owensboro). Some clouds over southeast Illinois, as well.

The clouds are forecast to exit this morning. These are the back end clouds of the system that brought hail to many of you on Monday. Hopefully the clouds will exit, as planned. Sometimes these type of clouds can be stubborn to leave.

Meanwhile, a new storm system is taking shape well to our west. This system will start to spread high clouds into the region as the day wears on. We are between two systems.

Highs today will top out in the 68 to 74 degree range. That is the plan! If the clouds linger, over portions of the area, then temperatures will be a tad lower.

A warm front will lift through the area tonight. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms could form along and north of the front. This would most likely occur after midnight.

A negatively tilted trough will enter the region on Wednesday. This will help produce quite a bit of lift in the atmosphere. A small stream of moisture will stream northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear will increase. Guess what that means? If you guessed snow, then you would be wrong and should probably pay more attention in class. It means, thunderstorms.

Some of the storms on Wednesday, from the late morning hours into the afternoon hours, could become severe. What does severe mean? The NWS defines severe as 60 mph winds or greater, quarter size hail or larger, and/or tornadoes.

The tornado risk on Wednesday is low. The damaging wind and hail risk is on the lower end of medium. I suspect a few warnings will be issued for wind and hail.

Lightning is a risk, as always.

Locally heavy downpours will occur in the thunderstorms. A quick 1/2″ not out of the question in a few spots. It is also possible that some areas pick up very little rainfall. It is one of those systems.

Much colder air arrives with strong winds on Wednesday night into Friday night. I can’t rule out 30’s on Thursday and Friday morning. I am monitoring the frost risk.

Winds will be strong and gusty later tonight into Thursday. Gusts will top 40 mph, from time to time. These will be gradient winds. Does anyone remember what gradient winds are? They are caused by tight pressure gradients. Rapidly rising and falling barometers.

12 am future-cast radar for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  A large band of weakening showers and storms will approach southeast Missouri.

7 am Wednesday radar.  That band of showers and storms has weakened considerably.

1 PM Future-cast radar for Wednesday.  Storms may redevelop behind the morning band.  We will have to see if the atmosphere becomes unstable.  Sometimes the morning rain can cause the atmosphere to stabilize.  That would be nice.  If that happens then the severe weather risk decreases.

This is what radar MIGHT look like at 1 pm.  This is the high resolution NAM model.

Wind gusts map for Thursday morning at 7 am

Strong and gusty winds late Tuesday night into Thursday.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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April 3, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Showers and thunderstorms possible before 11 pm.  A few storms could produce hail and high winds.  A chance for showers after 11 pm.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 25 mph.  Winds becoming more westerly with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  A few storms, before 8 pm, could produce hail and gusty winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%  Rain chances diminish late at night.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous early in the evening.  Rain will diminish through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B for the evening hours.  Rain should diminish late.

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April 4, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny during the morning and then partly sunny during the afternoon.  Mild temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:20 p.m.

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming cloudy.  A 20% for a shower or storms before 10 pm. A 60% for showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri after 10 pm.  A 50% for showers and storms over the rest of the area after midnight.  Winds becoming strong and gusty late tonight.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60   IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 56 to 62     TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Winds becoming southeast at 7 to 14 before midnight and then 12 to 24 mph with gusts to 35 mph late tonight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  Strong and gusty winds.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but I will be monitoring southeast Missouri as a line of storms advances into the region late tonight.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered showers before midnight.   Numerous showers and storms late tonight.  Highest coverage will be over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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April 5, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm.  Windy.  One round of morning storms and then a second round during the late morning/afternoon hours.  Some of the storms over southern Illinois and western Kentucky could be intense.  Falling temperatures behind the main band of afternoon storms.  Some areas should fall into the 50’s after frontal passage.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74  Falling temperatures behind the front.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 12 to 24 mph with gusts above 35 mph.  Winds may turn more west/southwest after the cold front passes your location.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitoring the severe weather potential.  Strong and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Some storms, especially over southern Illinois and western Kentucky, could produce hail and high winds.  Tornado risk will need to be monitored.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous showers and storms possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and have a plan B.  On and off shower/storm chances.
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Windy.  Cloudy with evening showers and storms. Showers becoming more scattered as we move deeper into the night.  Colder.  Some clearing late.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 44   IL ~ 36 to 44    KY ~ 36 to 44     TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: West and northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong winds.  Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates for the early evening hours.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 50%    KY ~  50%   TN ~ 50%   
Coverage of precipitation
: Precipitation should be ending from west to east on Wednesday evening.  Scattered showers possible late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Strong winds could interfere with outdoor activities.  Rain should be on the way out by Wednesday evening.

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Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Windy.  Much cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 48 to 54     IL ~ 48 to 54     KY ~ 50 to 55   TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Northwest.  Strong and gusty.  Winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph before noon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.  Small chance for a shower.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Much cooler with strong and gusty winds.
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Mostly clear and cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 44   IL ~ 36 to 44    KY ~ 36 to 44     TN ~ 36 to 44
Winds: Northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  I am monitoring the frost potential.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

Dry weather Friday into Sunday.  Highs in the 50’s on Friday, 60’s on Saturday, and perhaps 70’s on Sunday.

The next chance for rain arrives on Monday.

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School bus stop forecast

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Monday night: Lightning is possible early in the night.  Small risk for severe storms before 8 pm.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible late Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:  Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Lightning will occur.  There is some risk for severe weather on Wednesday.  Confidence is low.  There will be a lot of clouds, the track of the area of low pressure is not perfect for severe storms, and there are questions on instability.  Let’s monitor updates.  I will know more on Tuesday.

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Your day by day analysis

A wake low passed through the region on Sunday night and produced winds of 50+ mph over portions of the Missouri Bootheel, northwest Tennessee, and along the Kentucky and Tennessee borders.  Wake lows are typically produced by large thunderstorm complexes.  They can cause rapid rising and falling barometric pressure.  This can create high winds.  Some areas had tree and power line damage.

Wake lows tend to be narrow bands of wind and they are difficult to forecast.

I had to update the forecast on Sunday night and add high winds.

Monday night into Tuesday night:

Showers and storms will come to an end, from west to east, on Monday evening.  Clouds will linger with a few showers after 10 pm.  The bulk of the rain will have ended.

There might be some fog on Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Confidence on the fog forecast is low.

Tuesday should be a nice day.  Quite a bit of morning sunshine with some afternoon clouds.  If we have fog then some clouds will be an issue during the morning hours, as well.  Temperatures should rise into the 68 to 74 degree range.  Nice!

Clouds thicken Tuesday night and a few showers and thunderstorms should push into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Severe weather is not anticipated on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Wednesday night

I am monitoring Wednesday for stronger storms.  The greatest risk may end up to our east, but this remains uncertain.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large area for a risk of severe weather.

Here is the current severe weather outlook (as on Monday afternoon)

This will need adjusting.  They typically move the risk around a little bit with each update.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

If you want to view the latest severe weather outlooks then click here.

Showers and storms will come to an end late Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday should be dry and cooler.

Let’s look at the Wednesday system

This first map is for 1 am on Wednesday.

The green and yellow represents rain and storms.  Yellow is heavier rain than the green.

You can see the closed circle of isobars along the OK/MO/AR border.  That is the low pressure center moving east and northeast.

The track of the low is important.  If the low tracks to our north then storm chances increase a bit.

This is the 7 am image.  Wednesday morning.

This is the 7 pm image for Wednesday evening.  The low is over southern Indiana and moving away.  Colder air is filtering quickly into our area.

Let me show you the higher resolution 3K NAM guidance future-cast radar

This is 1 AM on Wednesday.  Line of strong storms approaching our area from the west.

This next image is for 7 AM on Wednesday.  The line weakened rapidly (according to this model)

This next image shows new storms forming over southeast Missouri and moving into Illinois and Kentucky.

This is 4 PM on Wednesday.

Let’s keep an eye on trends over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Winds will be strong and gusty from Tuesday night into Thursday.  Some of the guidance indicates gusts above 40 mph.  These would be gradient winds.

This is the wind gust map for 4 am on Thursday.  Winds will be gusty well before this time, as well.

The strength of the winds will be partly dependent on the track of the area of low pressure.

The next concern will be temperatures on Thursday and Friday night.  I can’t rule out lows dipping into the 30’s.  If we can maintain some wind then frost won’t be an issue.

Still a bit early to know for sure, but odds are against a killing frost.  Monitor updates, of course.

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

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Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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