Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 2nd and 3rd: More rain and storms

8 AM Monday update

Monday, April 3 2017:

Am I alone in thinking, how in the world is it April, already?

Some of you experienced strong winds, earlier this morning, across portions of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and Tennessee. This was in response to a wake low.

The wake low formed from the large mass of thunderstorms that moved across Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana on Sunday. The low tracked into Arkansas and then into the southern portions of our local region. These wake lows can produce strong winds, sometimes in excess of 50 mph.

We will continue to have some gradient wind gusts today above 30 mph. This will be in response to a system moving into our region from the southwest.

Today’s outlook

Scattered showers and storms will redevelop (in areas not experiencing rain, at this time). I will post the radar link in the comment section.

We have a small risk for a few strong to severe storms later this morning into this afternoon. The overall risk for severe weather, at any given location, is small. Hail would be the main concern and then perhaps strong winds. Tornado risk is very low.

A large upper level low will spiral into the region today. This will help create lift. The lift will combine with a weak to moderately unstable atmosphere. The end result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The showers and storms will wane tonight. We will have some clouds remaining after midnight.

Highs today will mostly be in the 66 to 72 degree range and lows tonight will mostly be in the lower to middle 50’s.

Highs today could vary a bit because of cloud cover. If we could squeak out a bit more sunshine then temperatures would pop into the 70 to 75 degree range.

Tuesday should remain dry. with highs in the 68 to 72 degree range. Nice day.

Another system approaches by Tuesday night (late) and especially on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible with that system. Still a bit early to make a call on the potential for severe weather.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

 

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

April 2, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Becoming clouds.  A 70% for showers.  Thunder possible.  I am monitoring a little low in Arkansas.  Sometimes these create high winds in small area.  If this were to occur it would most likely be from the Missouri Bootheel into part of western Kentucky and part of western Tennessee.  They can occasionally produce 40+ mph winds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62   IL ~ 56 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 62    TN ~ 55 to 62
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph (watch the wake low potential)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%    KY ~  70%   TN ~ 70%  Increasing % numbers the later you move into the night.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous after 7 pm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.

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April 3, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A good chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures might be lower if the rain is more widespread than forecast.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 65 to 72   TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds:  South and southeast at 15 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Isolated strong storm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? If severe weather occurs, it would be isolated.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous showers and storms possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:19 p.m.

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms possible before 11 pm.  A chance for showers after 11 pm.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 55
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Perhaps early in the evening.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%  Rain chances diminish late at night.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Early  coverage could be widespread.  Rain will diminish through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B for the evening hours.  Rain should diminish late.

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April 4, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny during the morning and then partly sunny during the afternoon.  Mild temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 68 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:20 p.m.

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Increasing clouds late.  A 40% for a shower or thunderstorm after 2 am.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: East and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~  40%   TN ~ 40% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps late at night some scattered showers moving in from the west.  Thunder possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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April 5, 2017
Wednesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 66 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitoring the severe weather potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%   KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:21 p.m.

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Cloudy with evening showers and storms. Showers ending overnight. Precipitation should be ending west to east.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 46   IL ~ 42 to 46    KY ~ 42 to 46     TN ~ 44 to 46
Winds: Southwest becoming west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps late at night some scattered showers moving in from the west.  Thunder possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Sunday night into Monday night: Lightning is possible on Sunday night, but severe weather is unlikely.  Some of the storms on Monday and Monday evening could produce gusty winds and hail.  The overall severe weather risk is small, but not zero.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:  Lightning is possible.  Monitor updates.

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Your day by day analysis

The main weather concern for the next couple of days will be a storm system that brings increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night into Monday evening.

A large thunderstorm complex, located along the Gulf of Mexico, is causing some disruption in the better moisture moving northward, at least for Sunday night.

You can see that complex on this satellite image

and radar/satellite

Some downpours are possible on Monday.  We will have to see how much moisture makes it northward later tonight into Monday.

The HRRR model also shows a wake low tonight (Sunday night).  These can occasionally produce high winds.

HRRR wind gust map for Sunday night

The highest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along the cold front on Monday afternoon and evening.  A couple of strong storms possible.  Hail and gusty winds possible with the most intense cells.  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

Rain will end on Monday night and that should leave us with a dry and mild Tuesday.  High temperatures on Tuesday should pop into the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.

Another storm system approaches the region late Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday/Wednesday night.  Additional showers and thunderstorms will accompany that cold front.

Let’s take a look at some of the rainfall totals that the models are spitting out.

Keep in mind, convection/storms can always produce higher totals.

NOAA prediction

Click images for a larger view

You can see that NOAA is forecasting anywhere from 0.60″ to over 1.2″

NAM model prediction

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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