Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 1st and 2nd: Storms on Sunday night and Monday?

Sunday morning update:

Forecast appears on track.  A mix of sun and clouds today.  Small chance for a shower from Ripley County, MO towards St Louis.  Most of the region should remain dry.

Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up later tonight into Monday.

The latest Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook does include most of the region in a low end risk for severe storms.  This would mostly be on Monday and Monday evening.  It would not surprise me to see portions of the region upgraded into a slight risk.  Right now we are in a marginal risk.  I will keep an eye on it.

Enjoy your Sunday.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

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April 1, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48    KY ~ 45 to 50    TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  NE/E winds at 3 to 6 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
Moonrise will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 2, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warmest temperatures should be along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.  Warmest around LBL and east of there.  Increasing clouds during the afternoon.  A small chance for a shower over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 70 to 74     KY ~ 72 to 76   TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 10%   KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps some increase in coverage moving into the region from Arkansas.  Best chance for rain would be over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
Moonrise 
will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely as the night wears on.  Mostly later in the evening into the overnight hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62   IL ~ 56 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 62    TN ~ 55 to 62
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%    KY ~  70%   TN ~ 70%  Increasing % numbers the later you move into the night.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered, but becoming numerous.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars, especially late in the evening.

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April 3, 2017
Monday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Windy.  A few heavy storms possible.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 66 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  South and southeast at 15 to 30 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor updates concerning severe weather potential.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  Severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%   KY ~ 70%   TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.  Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:19 p.m.

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms possible before 11 pm.  A chance for showers after 11 pm.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55   IL ~ 50 to 55    KY ~ 50 to 55     TN ~ 52 to 55
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph becoming west and northwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  Perhaps early in the evening.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~  60%   TN ~ 60%  Rain chances diminish late at night.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Early  coverage could be widespread.  Rain will diminish through the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B for the evening hours.  Rain should diminish late.

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April 4, 2017
Tuesday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny and mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72     KY ~ 66 to 74   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: West at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None anticipated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:20 p.m.

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
: Increasing clouds late.  A 30% for a shower or thunderstorm after 2 am.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56     TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Becoming east and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~  20%   TN ~ 20% 
Coverage of precipitation
: Perhaps late at night some scattered showers moving in from the west.  Thunder possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night into Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I will monitor the timing of Sunday’s rain chances.

Sunday night: Lightning is possible Sunday night.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.

Monday and Monday nigh: Latest trends are indicating the potential for severe weather on  Monday.  This is a change from previous forecasts.  Monitor updates concerning the potential for storms on Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated

Wednesday into Thursday:  Another storm system approaches the region.  We need to monitor the potential for more thunderstorms.  It is too early to know if severe weather is a concern.  Monitor updated forecast.

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Your day by day analysis

Saturday night

Calm weather is anticipated for Saturday night.  A few clouds.  As the night wears on we may see some increase in clouds from the southwest.  Rain should hold off.

I can’t rule out patchy fog.  Temperatures will be cool with lows mostly in the 40’s.

Sunday:

Data continues to struggle with how to handle Sunday’s forecast.  Quite a bit of the data shows increasing clouds with perhaps even a shower over southeast Missouri.  Warmer air will begin to stream into the region in response to an incoming trough.  If we can muster plenty of sunshine on Sunday then temperatures will rise into the upper 60’s to middle 70’s.

I am forecasting a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday with increasing clouds during the late afternoon hours.  I will include 30% for a shower over southeast Missouri and a 20% for southwest Illinois.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase considerably on Sunday night into Monday night.  Widespread showers and storms are expected.  Some locally heavy downpours are possible.

I am closely monitoring Monday and Monday night’s thunderstorm potential.  At one point it appeared the area of low pressure would track to our south.  That has changed.  It now appears the low may track over our region.  This would place us near the triple-point.  Area of low pressure, warm front, and cold front.  We need to monitor the risk for severe storms.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center (as of this writing) has not included our area in the severe weather risk.  That could change.  Monitor updates.  If the low does track over our area then strong storms are certainly possible.

Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Another system will bring showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Precipitation should be end by Thursday.  At least the significant precipitation should end.  We may have to deal with wrap-around clouds and spotty showers.  Much like this recent system.

Some model guidance indicates the storms on Wednesday could be intense.  Once again, let’s monitor updates.

Here is the current NOAA rainfall prediction.  This map includes rainfall through Tuesday morning.

This is a broad-brush forecast.  Not everyone will receive the same amounts.  This is especially true with thunderstorms that could train over the same area.  Locally much higher totals will be possible.  We are moving into that time of the year when thunderstorms will have more moisture to work with.  It is spring.

We need to watch temperatures later this week.  We could dip into the 30’s.

Click to enlarge this weatherbell.com image

 

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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