Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 18, 2018

The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.

An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.

During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).

The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.

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April 19, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~  54 to 58         KY ~ 54 to 58       TN ~  58 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:14 AM

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Frost advisory
Forecast:  A few clouds.  Cold.  Frost possible.   Some areas may briefly dip below freezing near Mt Vernon, Illinois.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 32 to 38      IL ~ 32 to 38      KY ~ 34 to 38       TN ~ 36 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: Mostly north at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:32 PM

April 20, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~  58 to 62         KY ~ 60 to 64       TN ~  60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: East and northeast 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:13 AM

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 42      IL ~ 38 to 44      KY ~ 40 to 44       TN ~ 42 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: Northeast and east at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:33 PM

April 21, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.   Mild.  A 20% of a late afternoon shower.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~  64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68       TN ~  64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Winds: East 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:12 AM

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Scattered showers developing, especially late.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~ 44 to 48      KY ~ 45 to 50      TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  50%          TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered, esp late
Winds: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph late
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:34 PM

April 22, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain showers.  Coverage of rain showers may be most numerous across the southern half of the region.  There remain some questions about the track of the area of low pressure.  If you have outdoor plans on Sunday then monitor updates.  There will be rain on radar.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 65      IL ~  60 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65       TN ~  62 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%  (Bootheel) 40% northern counties of southeast Missouri     IL ~  40%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated north.  More numerous south (near MO/AR and KY/TN border).  Coverage is highly dependent on the track of an area of low pressure.  Monitor updates.
Winds: East at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Southern half of the region should have a plan B and everyone else should keep an eye on radar and monitor forecast updates.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Cooler.  Showers likely.  Greatest coverage of rain south vs north.  That means lower chances from Carbondale northward.  Greater chances Carbondale southward.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~  45 to 50      KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~  46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 50%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates
Sunset: 7:35 PM

April 23, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~  58 to 64         KY ~ 58 to 64       TN ~  58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Decreasing clouds.  A shower possible.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52      IL ~ 46 to 52      KY ~ 46 to 52      TN ~ 46 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:36 PM

April 24, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Quite a few clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66      IL ~  63 to 66        KY ~ 63 to 66       TN ~  63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to  Isolated
Winds: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:08 AM

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 46      IL ~ 42 to 46      KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:37 PM

April 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Mild.  A chance of a shower during the morning.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 68      IL ~  65 to 68          KY ~ 65 to 68       TN ~  65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:07 AM

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48       IL ~ 44 to 48       KY ~ 46 to 48        TN ~ 48 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: West at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:38 PM

RAIN TOTALS

The next chance of rain will arrive late Saturday night into Monday.

Guidance has started to zero in on a path for the area of low pressure that should bring some showers to the region.

The low will pass to our south.  That places us on the cool side of the system.

Rain showers are possible in or near our region late Saturday night and more likely Sunday into Sunday night/Monday.

The best chance of rain will be along the Missouri/Arkansas border and the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Here is the current NOAA rainfall forecast.  Most of this would fall late Saturday night into Monday.

Notice the tight gradient.  Southern counties with the best chance of measurable rainfall.

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Thursday and Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday into Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Sunday into Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

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Weather Headlines

• Dry weather today through Saturday.  Calm.
• Frost possible tonight if the winds subside
• Friday and Saturday will be nice.  Dry.
• Watching rain chances late Saturday night into Monday.

This was posted on Twitter yesterday by @PaducahCVB.

Calm weather will be with us into Saturday evening.

There will be a risk of frost tonight/Friday morning.  Temperatures will likely drop into the 30’s by Friday morning.  Winds may remain just high enough to prevent frost in some areas.   This will need to be monitored.  If you have sensitive plants then you may want to protect them tonight.

Mild conditions are anticipated Friday and Saturday.  You can expect highs in the 60’s.

Our next storm system will take aim at the region late Saturday night into Sunday.

This system will be a southern tracker.  That means the area of low pressure will pass to our south.  If this was January then we would be talking about snow.  It is late April, thankfully.  Not that it can’t snow in April (as we have recently witnessed).

Rain showers will be possible along the path of the area of low pressure.

The big question for our region is how far south does the low track.  If the low tracks far enough south then the rain will stay mostly to our south.

For now, I have rain chances in the region starting late Saturday night (after 3 AM) into Monday.

Showers late Saturday night might remain confined to southeast Missouri.

The best chance of rain for the rest of us will be centered on Sunday and Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Rain totals should be light.  We won’t have to worry about severe weather.

If the low tracks a bit further north then rain chances will need to be increased across our northern counties.

The greatest rain coverage will likely be along the Missouri/Arkansas border and the Kentucky/Tennessee border.

Let’s look at two model guidance packages.

The GFS model and the Canadian model.  The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the image.

They both have the same general idea.  Best rain chances south vs north.

GFS

Canadian

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 638

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Associate Director at the Extreme Events Institute at Florida International University. Erik Salna, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• Extremes: 95 at Death Valley, CA, and 9 at Valentine, NE
• Wet weekend over Southeast US
• A chilly start to the week with 30s into Southeast US
• The potential of severe storms Friday into Saturday
• Tornadoes touch down in Carolinas and Virginia
• Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
• and more!

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.