Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 1, 2017: Welcome to APRIL!!!!

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog

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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44   IL ~ 38to 44    KY ~ 40 to 45    NW TN ~ 44 to 48
Winds:  North winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Moonrise will be at 9:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:32 p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 1, 2017
Saturday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Some data shows quite a few clouds.  I am hoping for partly sunny and perhaps full sunshine, at times.  Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover departing.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 66    KY ~ 60 to 66   NW TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%   KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:17 p.m.
Moonrise 
will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few late night clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48    IL ~ 44 to 48    KY ~ 45 to 50    TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  NE/E winds at 3 to 6 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~  0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
Moonrise will be at 10:11 a.m. and moonset will be at -:– p.m. Waxing Crescent

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April 2, 2017
Sunday
Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds through the day.  Some showers possible, especially over southeast Missouri.  Perhaps into southern Illinois.  Lesser chances Kentucky and Tennessee.  Low confidence.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70     KY ~ 66 to 72   TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.   Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 20%   KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps some increase in coverage coming in from Arkansas.  Best chance would be over southeast Missouri.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:18 p.m.
Moonrise 
will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m. Waxing Crescent

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely as the night wears on.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 52 to 56   IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 58     TN ~ 52 to 58
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 70%  IL ~ 70%    KY ~  70%   TN ~ 70%  Increasing % numbers the later you move into the night.
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
Moonrise  will be at 11:05 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:37 a.m.  Waxing Crescent

Additional showers and storms are likely on Monday into Monday night.  Perhaps again on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday and Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Saturday into Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I will monitor the timing of Sunday’s rain chances.

Sunday night into Monday night:  Lightning is possible Sunday night into Monday night.  At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.

Tuesday and Tuesday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

Wednesday and Wednesday night:  Lightning is possible.  Monitor updates.

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Your day by day analysis

Friday night into Saturday night

A large upper level low brought clouds to the region on Friday.  A few light showers, as well.

Check out this beautiful satellite image.  You can see the counter-clockwise spin.

Click for full resolution

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The weather will be calm through Saturday night.  We deserve some calm weather.  It has been a rough 30 days.

Saturday should be a decent day.  I am anticipating temperatures into the upper 50’s to middle 60’s with a mix of sun and clouds.  Some of the models are showing rain on Saturday, but I tossed those out.  It appears we will remain dry.  Perhaps Saturday is the pick day of the weekend.

I am a little concerned about cloud cover.  The upper level low should be far enough away that we lose the thick clouds.  There is a lower confidence on cloud cover for Saturday.

Here is the NAM cloud cover graphics.  Blue represents clouds.  Hopefully the clouds will depart.  Keep it in mind.

This graphic is for 7 am Saturday (cloud cover in blue)

This graphic is for 10 am Saturday

This graphic is for 1 pm on Saturday

This graphic is for 4 pm

Clouds may increase late Saturday night.  Rain should hold off.

Sunday

There is quite a bit of debate about Sunday’s forecast.  Forecast guidance indicates another system will approach our region from the southwest.  This will spread clouds into the region on Sunday morning and afternoon.  The big question will be rain or no rain.

If rain were to occur then the best chance would be over southeast Missouri.  Whether the rain spreads further east and northeast is the question.  For now, subject to changes, I will mention rain showers for southeast Missouri.  Low chances elsewhere.  Monitor updates.  If the system approaches a little faster then the forecast will need to be update.

Rain chances increase area-wide Sunday night and Monday.  Some locally heavy downpours are possible.  Severe weather is possible to our south, but not in our area.  As always, monitor updates.

Areas that have recently received heavy rain will need to monitor rain intensity on Monday and Monday night.

Let’s look at some future-cast radar images from the NAM.  Remember, this is a model and not gospel.   These images represent what one model believes will happen.

It won’t be exact.  Take the general idea from these images.

This first image is for Sunday at 10 am

There is quite a bit of debate about the timing of rain.  I mentioned showers for southeast Missouri.  Let’s keep an eye on trends.

This image is for 4 pm on Sunday.

I will be monitoring the rain.  The NAM believes some showers will move into our southern and southwestern counties.

This image is for 7 pm on Sunday

This image is for 1 am on Monday

This image is for 7 am on Monday

Another system on Wednesday.  Perhaps some showers and storms

Here is that system.  Low winding up in Iowa.  Cold front back into Missouri.  Still some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work with.

The GFS model paints locally heavy rain in the region.

Keep in mind this is one model’s opinion.

There is some risk for a band or two of heavy rain.

Here is the current NOAA rainfall prediction.  This is through Tuesday morning.

Click to enlarge this weatherbell.com image

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

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Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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