WeatherTalk Blog

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

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WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

July 5, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A 20% chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96 IL ~ 92 to 96 KY ~ 92 to 96 TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:40 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds. A 20% chance of evening thunderstorms. A 30% to 40% chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40% (mainly late) IL ~ 30% to 40% (mainly late) KY ~ 30% to 40% (mainly late) TN ~ 20% to 30% (mainly late)
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph increasing to 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:22 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:26 PM

July 6, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Low confidence in rain coverage. Quite a few clouds. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40% IL ~ 30% to 40% KY ~ 30% to 40% TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
Wind: Variable at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
UV Index: 5 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:40 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:52 AM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:25 PM

July 7, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny and warm. Less humid. Not as hot. Nice day anticipated.
Temperatures: MO ~83 to 86 IL ~ 83 to 86 KY ~ 83 to 86 TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:41 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:24 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:28 PM

July 8, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:58 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:33 PM

July 9, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:42 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warmer and more humid. Perhaps an early evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated early
Wind: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 2:36 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:40 PM

July 10, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92 IL ~ 88 to 92 KY ~ 88 to 92 TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:43 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 73 IL ~ 70 to 73 KY ~ 70 to 73 TN ~ 70 to 73
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:17 PM
Moonrise: 3:20 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:49 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms. These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

Most of this rain would fall Thursday night and Friday (if it falls at all)

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Thursday. Isolated storms are possible Thursday. If a storm forms then it would produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and lightning.

Many areas may remain dry.

Thursday night into Friday night. A few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front late Thursday night into Friday. There are some models that show the front passing through the region dry. Any storms that form would be intense.

Saturday through Sunday night. Thunderstorms are not anticipated.

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

Another hot day for the region
Low confidence in thunderstorm activity late Thursday night and Friday
Saturday is the pick day of the weekend. Enjoy it.

The main weather story today will be the heat and heat index values. Air temperatures in the 90’s and heat index values of 100 to 108 (locally higher). Uncomfortable weather.

There is a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. The vast majority of the region will remain dry.

A weak cold front will push through the region tonight and Friday. This front may be the focus of additional thunderstorm activity, but confidence is low. The front may pass through the region with little precipitation.

The chances of thunderstorms would be greatest late tonight into Friday. Even those chances are low.

Friday night through Sunday night should be dry.

Saturday is the pick day of the weekend. Lower dew points and temperatures will make for a pleasant day. Highs in the 80’s. I hope you can enjoy it because it won’t last long.

Dew points will rise on Sunday into next week back into the muggy category. A slow rise Sunday, but a more substantial rise Monday onward.

Most of next week looks to deliver hot and muggy weather conditions. Highs in the 90’s and lows in the 70’s. Heat index values of 98 to 108 through the week.

Rain may be hard to come by next week. Small thunderstorm chances. Mainly heat of the day activity. Typical summer thunderstorms.

Summer has certainly made itself shown.

Heat Safety!

The July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

These graphics are for subscribers.