Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

May 28th and 29th: A look ahead.

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http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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May 28, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms early.  Low confidence on rain remaining in the area.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 62     KY ~ 56 to 62      TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 25 mph early and then winds of west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog.  Perhaps some wet roadways early in the evening.  Lightning possible early in the evening.
Is severe weather expected? The severe weather concerns should come to an end by Sunday night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 30% (before 7 pm)  TN ~ 30% (before 7 pm)
Coverage of precipitation
:  Rain will be coming to an end.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but perhaps check radars.

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May 29, 2017
Monday Forecast Details

I did add the mention of a few scattered showers and storms late Monday afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.  This would mostly be for southeast Missouri (northern portions) and northern portions of southern Illinois)

Forecast
:  Morning clouds, especially over the southern half of the region.  Warm.  Becoming partly to mostly sunny.  A 30% for scattered late afternoon thunderstorms.  Best chance would be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Perhaps northwest Kentucky, as well.  Lower chances elsewhere.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning would be the main concern.  Perhaps some pea to dime size hail.
Temperatures:   MO ~  82 to 86   IL  82 to 86    KY  82 to 86     TN  82 to 86
Winds:  South and southwest over western Kentucky and then southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe late afternoon wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy early.  A 30% for an evening shower or storm.  Best chances would be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and then southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  I can’t rule out some patchy fog late.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4 to 8  mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few storms could cause wet roadways and lightning.  Small hail.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated before 9 pm
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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May 30, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~  76 to 82    IL  76 to 82      KY  78 to 84     TN  78 to 82
Winds:  West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.  Perhaps the best chance will be over our northern counties.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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May 31, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~  75 to 80    IL  75 to 80      KY  78 to 84     TN  78 to 82
Winds:  West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Sunday night into Monday:  Thunderstorms are unlikely after 8 pm on Sunday.  A few storms are possible on Monday along an incoming cold front.  The best chance would be over southeast Missouri into southern Illinois.  Lower chances elsewhere.  Pea to dime size hail and lightning would be the concern.

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Weather Analysis for the coming week:

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

On break for the holiday weekend.

Obtaining some rest!  🙂


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Find me on Twitter

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The app is for text subscribers.

The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

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If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com

The Android app is also ready.

Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers.  The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.

Here is the download link for the Android version  Click Here

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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