We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location). For all of your families eye care needs.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site.
You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full-service Carwash and Lube established in 1987.
They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well.
If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one-stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
The quad states area source for Precision Ag Technology. Locally owned and operated, specializing in planting, harvesting, fertilizer application and drainage. Visit them on their website and on Facebook. You can also find them on Twitter. They are located in Almo, Kentucky. Phone 270-718-0245
.———————————————–
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for showers. Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Monitor rain chances.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southeast at 15 to 35 mph. I can’t rule out gusts to 40 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:42 p.m. Waning Crescent
.
March 24, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warmer. Windy. Perhaps some late afternoon showers and storms approaching southeast Missouri. Some question on the timing of precipitation arriving over our western counties.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong winds. Small risk for lightning and wet roadways late in the day.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated late in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 74 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~66 to 74 TN ~ 66 to 74
Winds: South winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts above 35 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:10 p.m.
UV Index: 2 to 4
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing from the southwest and west. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds. Windy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Breezy conditions will continue with wind gusts above 30 mph.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but becoming numerous late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts. Some rain will be possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 4:46 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent
.
March 25, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: A couple of bands of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce heavy downpours. Monitor the severe weather risk.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lighting. Wet roadways. Locally heavy downpours.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. I can’t rule out strong storms. Severe weather risk is small, but not zero.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have alternative plans. I do expect at least periods of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest winds at 14 to 28 mph and gusty. Winds becoming more west/southwest during the afternoon.
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 3
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy early with showers and thunderstorms ending. Becoming partly cloudy late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways early in the night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates early in the night.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60% (rain chances decreasing through the evening and night)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but ending from west to east.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars. Some rain may linger into the night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 54 IL ~ 46 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 54
Winds: West and southwest winds at 8 to 16 mph early and then west and southwest at 5 to 10 mph late.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 5:26 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:44 p.m. Waning Crescent
.
March 26, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A slight chance for a shower before 10 am.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated. Small shower risk.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
UV Index: 6 to 8
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late. Breezy.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways late. Lightning possible late.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% late IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage late at night
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph early and then 10 to 20 mph late
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:50 p.m. Waning Crescent
.
March 27, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 72 IL ~ 65 to 72 KY ~ 65 to 74 TN ~ 65 to 74
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No.
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:13 p.m.
UV Index: 0 to 3
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A good chance for evening showers and thunderstorms. Activity should decrease late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph. Winds becoming west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation? No
Moonrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:56 p.m. New Moon
More information on the UV index. Click here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.
Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. Visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night and Saturday: Monitor updates. Strong storms are possible. Still a bit early to know the extent of the concerns. Thus, monitor updates.
Sunday and Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday and Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible.
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
Your day by day analysis
Thursday night:
Confidence: High
Wow! Significant forecast bust for southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Thursday. There was a slight chance for showers. What occurred was widespread showers and thunderstorms. I did not see that coming. When I went to bed at 1 am it appeared spotty showers would develop overnight.
This is what radar looked like early Thursday morning.
Not only was there widespread showers and thunderstorms, but temperatures were in the 30’s. I guess it could have been worse. At least this was not a snow forecast bust. That would have been nothing less than epic.
Sometimes nature still beats us. This was definitely one of those occurrences.
Windy conditions will develop on Thursday evening and night. I am anticipating 15 to 30 mph winds across the region. Gusts well above 30 mph are possible. These will be gradient winds. What are gradient winds? Gradient winds occur when the air pressure tightens. Rapidly falling or rising air pressure causes strong winds. An area of low pressure will develop to our southwest over the coming 48 to 72 hours. This area of low pressure will push northeast into the Missouri Valley late Friday night and Saturday.
Clouds will be the general rule on Thursday night. Slight chance for showers on Thursday night.
Friday
Confidence: High
Clouds and windy conditions will be the general rule on Friday. We will be awaiting the arrival of showers and thunderstorms from our southwest. It appears that Friday should remain mostly dry. As we push into the afternoon and evening hours we will have to monitor showers and storms to our west and southwest. It is possible that some of this activity moves into our region. The most likely area would be southeast Missouri.
Southerly winds will gust above 30 mph on Friday. Breezy day. Kite flying weather? Warm, as well. Temperatures will be above normal. I am anticipating widespread 68 to 74 degree readings. If we have some spotty sun then temperatures should pop above 74 degrees. Either way, a mild day. Normal high temperatures are in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Here is the temperature anomaly forecast for Friday. How many degrees above normal will temperatures be?
1 PM temperature anomalies.
Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase rapidly on Friday night and Saturday.
Friday night and Saturday
Confidence: Medium
Showers and thunderstorms will advance into the region as we move into Friday night and Saturday. An area of low pressure will track out of Oklahoma and push into Missouri. A cold front will accompany the low.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Friday well to our west and southwest. On Friday night the bands of showers and storms will move northeast into our local area.
Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. I am closely monitoring the severe weather threat. Clouds and rain may help keep CAPE values low. CAPE is a measure of energy that thunderstorms can tap into. Low CAPE values equal low chances for severe weather. If CAPE numbers are higher than forecast then the threat for severe weather will increase.
Monitor updates concerning severe weather chances.
There will likely be a couple of bands of showers and storms on Friday night into Saturday afternoon.
The final band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the passage of the cold front.
Breezy conditions will continue into Saturday.
If you have outdoor plans on Saturday, then monitor updated forecasts. Have an alternative plan in the event of rain. It may not rain all day, but at least a portion of the day will likely produce rain.
The following images are future-cast radar. What this model believes radar will look like. Remember, this is a model. They are not perfect.
These are model projections. Take the general idea and not specifics.
This first image is for 7 PM
This next image is for 10 pm Friday night
This next image is for 1 am Saturday
This next image is for 4 am Saturday
This next image is for 7 am Saturday
This next image is for 10 am Saturday
This next image is for 1 pm Saturday
This next image is for 4 pm Saturday
This next image is for 7 pm Saturday
Showers and storms will end from west to east as the cold front advances through the area. Late Saturday night we should experience dry conditions.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined both Friday and Saturday for severe weather across portions of the region.
Here is the Friday outlook. Storms should hold off until late Friday afternoon or Friday night (in our local area).
The light green area indicates where thunderstorms are possible, but below severe levels.
The dark green zone represents a marginal risk for severe weather.
The yellow zone is the greatest risk zone for severe weather.
Here is the Friday outlook. Keep in mind, most of this would be Friday night locally.
This next image is for Saturday.
Monitor updates.
As far as rainfall totals. Rain totals will be highly dependent on thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms can produce locally heavy downpours. I am expecting a widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain. Some areas should receive more than one inch.
Here is the NAM guidance rainfall totals
Keep in mind, models don’t handle thunderstorm rainfall all that well. This won’t be exact. Take the general idea from the model guidance.
Sunday into Monday
Confidence: Medium
We may have lingering clouds on Sunday morning. Shower chances should be less than 20% Sunday morning. I am anticipating some sunshine on Sunday, as well. If we are fortunate then we will have quite a bit of sun. Temperatures will be near normal. There won’t be a large temperature drop behind the Saturday cold front.
I am anticipating high temperatures in the 58 to 64 degree range. Some of the guidance packages, which have more sunshine, pop temperatures in the middle 60’s.
Here is the NAM guidance forecast temperatures for Sunday afternoon
and GFS (GFS is warmer)
The GFS has more sunshine than the NAM model guidance. That is the reason for the differences.
We will have barely dried out before our next rain maker arrives Sunday night and Monday.
This is an active pattern. Fast moving jet stream flow will deliver storm systems every few days. Changeable weather will be the rule.
The GFS shows the rain approaching on Sunday night. This is the 1 AM Monday image. Green represents scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This next image is for 7 AM on Monday
Rain will likely remain in the forecast into Monday evening.
Another system showing up in the charts next Thursday or Friday
I did promise you an active pattern with changeable forecasts.
.
Find me on Twitter
How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Here is the official NOAA rainfall prediction
Keep in mind, thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall.
This image is for the Friday night through Saturday night rain event.
This next image is the total seven day rainfall. This image includes the Sunday night into Monday night rain event.
High and Low-Temperature Outlook
Friday low temperature forecast
Friday high temperature forecast
I am monitoring thunderstorm chances on Friday night and Saturday. I can’t rule out severe weather, but that is uncertain. Monitor updates, as always.
Don’t forget to utilize the interactive weather radars. The city-view radars are sprinkled across the entire area. Use them to track thunderstorms. You will notice there are many options included in the city view radars. Hail tracking, rotation tracking, clickable warnings, and more.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
..
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
